Belmont Park | Race 4 | Post Time 3:09 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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Our Pix “saver” last week, Beau Belle, showed she could move up on the weeds to complete the exacta while our key, Don’t Stop Maria, ran on gamely but just missed filling out the superfecta.

Grade 1 Preakness | 1 3/16 Miles, Dirt, 3-year-olds

Pimlico, Race 13, 6:48 p.m. (ET) | TimeformUS PPs

Most Likely Winner: Justify (#7)

Remember the classic final scene in the old movie “War Games”? When the computer runs thousands of mock tests to ascertain the best strategy to win the game Thermonuclear War, and ultimately declared, “The only winning move is not to play.” Well from a horseplayer’s standpoint, that may be the most logical conclusion to draw after assessing this year’s Preakness Stakes, especially with 13 other excellent betting events to sink one’s teeth and bankroll into Saturday at Pimlico.

Heading into the Kentucky Derby so lightly raced and untested after a late start to his career seemed to be the biggest obstacle for JUSTIFY two weeks ago at Churchill Downs. But his innate talent seemed undeniable, and he was sent off as the favorite.

Justify did not disappoint, as he kept up with a fast early pace en route to a dominant win in the Kentucky Derby.

After pushing demanding splits of 22.24 seconds, 45.77, and 1:11.01 over sloppy going in the Kentucky Derby, JUSTIFY had a right to be caught in the lane by juvenile champion Good Magic, but instead he turned aside his bid and drew clear as the stronger horse. His winning time was slow by Derby standards, 1 1/4 miles in 2:04.20, but he still ran faster than his rivals did, and all the best 3-year-olds were there.

Some favorites are vulnerable, others are solid. The latter group includes the undefeated JUSTIFY, who answered every question in the Kentucky Derby and looks tough to beat at low odds in the Preakness. Justify won the Derby legitimately; he pushed a fast pace and won clear. He could have an easier trip in a Preakness field with less speed. If the race unfolds as expected, Justify can be loose on the lead or press modest fractions.

JUSTIFY is going to be a very short price in the Preakness Stakes, and deservedly so following his emphatic victory in the Kentucky Derby. The 5-2 favorite, Justify pressed a hot early pace before taking over entering the far turn and never looked back. Trainer Bob Baffert has had tremendous success in the Preakness, especially with Derby winners. Baffert’s Derby winners are unbeaten in Baltimore, and it would be surprising if this year were any different. Justify is strictly the horse to beat.

If your handicapping game involves identifying short-priced horses with vulnerabilities and betting against them, then Saturday’s Preakness Stakes at Pimlico could be dangerously close to the kind of race you would watch more than bet.

Race 5:
Very Very Stella (#5)

Was hindered by an extremely slow pace last time (indicated by blue color-coded pace figures in PPs).

Gets a needed drop in class.

Has run well over wet tracks in the past and there’s rain in the forecast.

6-1 on ML

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