Race 1: Swiping Dan (#1)
Will appreciate the cutback in distance after essentially being eased going a mile last time.
This trainer has done well with limited stock over the past several months.
Has run his best races over wet tracks, and there is plenty of rain in the forecast.
12-1 on ML

Belmont | Race 6 | Post Time 4:12 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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Happy Derby Day everyone, may your horse be with you. As for our little corner of the paddock, it was a very good week for BreezeFigs horses of both generations. Our Pick last week resulted in a surprising $12,20 payoff as True Atka saved our hides by going wire-to-wire after our other gimmick play decided it was not a good day to run well.

In most races, the post-position draw happens out of the public eye. Racing-office officials randomly draw numbers, the starting-gate spot, and match them with the names of entered horses. For some races, tracks try to dress up the draw, making some pomp out of an essentially mundane activity. But if there is one race where the post draw really generates buzz, it’s the Kentucky Derby. With the Derby now annually filled to its 20-horse capacity, who is positioned where can make a tremendous difference in the outcome.

The late all-stakes pick four Saturday at Churchill Downs – not the late, late pick four which encompasses the last four races on the Derby Day card and is not an all-stakes affair – is a juicy sequence. It starts in race 9 with the American Turf, continues with the Pat Day Mile and the Turf Classic, and concludes with the Kentucky Derby.

Let’s take a look at this sequence, from back to front.

Race 1: Canarsie Girl (#6)
Should appreciate getting back on preferred surface after a turf experiment.
Has more room for improvement than some others as a 3-year-old meeting elders.
DRF Formulator Fact: Over the past five years, Gary Contessa is 14 for 35 (40 percent, $5.03 ROI) with maidens switching from turf to dirt routes at NYRA.

4-1 on ML

Something new is on the wagering menu for Oaks and Derby Days at Churchill Downs: a two-day pick six that covers all the Grade 1 action. Friday’s races are the La Troienne and Kentucky Oaks, followed by the Humana Distaff, Churchill Downs, Old Forester, and Kentucky Derby on Saturday.

The wager, with a $250,000-guaranteed pool, has a 15 percent takeout and mandatory payout, though the $2 minimum is unkind to budget-minded players, making spreading in contentious races rather expensive. I’ll take a stab with a small ticket, singling a couple of runners to keep the cost down.

Assessing the pace situation in any race is a critical element of the puzzle known as handicapping, but it’s especially important in a race like the Kentucky Derby. Over the years, many horses with tactical speed have put themselves in ideal positions to sit and pounce before prevailing against their 3-year-old counterparts, but a stalking running style isn’t a prerequisite for Derby glory.

Belmont Park | Race 7 | Post Time 4:45 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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With the utmost confidence in a couple of races in the Friday pick four ending with the Kentucky Oaks – and a lesser amount of confidence, you might say, in the other two – I will take a crack at this sequence with two singles and two wide spreads.

Here’s the layout (pre-scratches):