If allowed only one word to describe the 2019 Kentucky Derby, that word could be “parity.” Bob Baffert, who trains the three favorites for this Derby – Game Winner, Roadster, and Improbable – used that descriptor in a recent media teleconference. And by many measures, the term fits.
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DRF Past Performances
Race 2: Much Trouble (#9)
The Pace Projector is predicting that he is quick enough to make the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner.
Ran extremely well in his turf debut, adapting to closing tactics after a poor start.
Danny Gargan gets a 100 TimeformUS Trainer Rating when teaming up with rider Kendrick Carmouche.
7-2 on ML
IMPROBABLE may not be entering this year’s Derby the way his connections had been hoping for, having finished second in both preps. But he did not run poorly in either of those races, and there is a way to look at him as a horse set to break though Saturday, even as he takes on a distance that may push his limits more than it does some of his main rivals.
WIN WIN WIN is a confirmed closer who is dependent on a swift pace in order to run his best. Luckily for him, it appears that is what he will get in this year’s Kentucky Derby. The most recent effort from Win Win Win is better than it appears on paper, as he was stopped badly rounding the far turn before regaining his stride and finishing a strong second in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. Had he not been forced to check as sharply as he did, the final margin of defeat would have been considerably smaller than it was.
Considering favorites won the last six Kentucky Derbies, perhaps the race is due for an upset. That is not likely if Game Winner maintains top form. Indications are the division leader will do more than simply maintain form – he might improve.
Believing that the finest 3-year-old preps were in Arkansas over the past couple of months, I’ve picked IMPROBABLE to win Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. After an unbeaten campaign at 2, he seems to have lost a little popularity after defeats in his two starts as a 3-year-old, both at Oaklawn Park. In each loss, he had excuses while still performing well to be second. He returned from a layoff and raced wide in his first start of the year in a division of the Rebel and then grew anxious in the starting game before the Arkansas Derby, necessitating a reload.
Omaha Beach and Improbable separated themselves from the rest of the field in the Arkansas Derby and in so doing appeared to also have separated themselves slightly from the well-matched group of 3-year-olds assembling to decide this year’s Derby.
Tue, 04/30/2019 - 17:46
When the 20 horses enter the starting gate for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, only one of them will have a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 or more - Florida Derby winner Maximum Security who actually has two. But half of the rest of the field will have earned figures of between 95 and 99 this year, making this an especially difficult Beyer Speed Figure puzzle.