Like trainer Mark Casse, I was hoping War of Will did not draw the rail again for the Preakness, although obviously not for the same reasons. The prevailing thought was that War of Will and IMPROBABLE are the two best horses in this field, with the former likely to offer a little more betting value and with a very legitimate chance of defeating the likely favorite – if he did not draw down inside again.

Hall of Famer trainer Bob Baffert has won the Preakness seven times and looks poised to add a record eighth with IMPROBABLE in Saturday’s race. Although the colt’s trouble-free Kentucky Derby finish might have been somewhat disappointing – he was fifth past the wire before being elevated to fourth upon the disqualification of Maximum Security – he does not need to close the gap on the rivals that beat him in Louisville. They simply aren’t here.

Despite being stuck inside for a second consecutive leg of the Triple Crown, WAR OF WILL should be viewed as one of the major threats, if not the most likely winner, of this year’s Preakness Stakes. War of Will made his first start since a disastrous trip in the Louisiana Derby in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago, breaking from the dreaded inside post. Once urged from the gate, he became difficult to rate, sitting the pocket trip before becoming involved in the Derby controversy, ultimately leading to a seventh-place finish via disqualification.

With the first four horses under the wire in the Kentucky Derby bypassing the second leg of the Triple Crown, the best finishers from that race returning in the Preakness are Improbable, a grinding fifth (promoted to fourth) as the favorite in Kentucky after an overall good trip, and War of Will, eventually fading to eighth after being part of the trouble at the five-sixteenths pole that led to the disqualification of Maximum Security.

BOURBON WAR is positioned for a mild upset over Preakness favorite IMPROBABLE, who benefitted from an uneventful trip in finishing fifth (placed fourth) as the Kentucky Derby favorite. Improbable is good, but he inherits repeat favoritism partly by default. The original top four Derby finishers all skipped the Preakness.

Race 1: Alphadora (#1)
Was too aggressively ridden two back, when she set a fast pace and faded going this distance.
Her top TimeformUS Speed Figure of 95 is clearly the highest in this field.
Will appreciate the class relief after being ambitiously spotted against stakes company last time.
5-2 on ML

:: Get TimeformUS PPs for these races at Belmont

Only four of the 13 horses in Saturday’s Preakness at Pimlico competed in the Kentucky Derby, and none of them was the Derby’s first horse under the wire, or the one who was made the official winner.

H Man
Trainer: Jason Servis
Last Race: May 9, 5th
Finish: 1st by 3 1/2
Beyer: 90

7-year-old claiming type has won three of his four starts since taken for $12.5k by Jason Servis and this was his best effort to date. He sat four-wide around the track before overpowering the leaders once into the stretch, and was clear under the wire while earning a new top figure. 

May 11

Belmont
Vagrancy (race 1)