Pimlico | Race 12 | 5:39 p.m. (ET) | TimeformUS PPs
The Grade 2 Dixie drew a large field of 12 runners, headed by last year’s Grade 1 Travers winner Catholic Boy. He’s clearly the class of this field, but he’s drawn the outside post position for his return. It’s not necessarily an easy spot for him as there are a number of accomplished rivals drawn to his inside, including graded stakes winners Inspector Lynley and Have At It.
Race 7: Dynamite Kitten (#7)
Traveled 111 more feet than the winner last time, according to Trakus, as she bolted on both turns.
Should appreciate the more gradual bends and one-turn configuration at Belmont.
Fits well against this field off her last effort and should handle the rise in class.
9-2 on ML
Belmont Park | Race 5 | Post Time 3:35 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
One Pick, Barracuda, was scratched and the other, Bay Society, stuck on the rail as she was, had to use her energy to get close early but faded to complete a modest trifecta. It was a semi-quiet week for BreezeFigs maidens with six of them coming home on top—at Arlington, Belmont, Gulfstream (two including a BreezeFigs trifecta), Parx and Santa Rosa.
My Preakness opinion is that this has not been a great crop of 3-year-olds and we are waiting for a fresh face to reboot the division. I really like Owendale (No. 5). He exploded to win the Lexington Stakes, one of the faster Kentucky Derby prep races, is trained by a high-percentage horseman in Brad Cox, should get an advantageous pace to attack, and will be the right price. Right or wrong, he ticks all the boxes for me, and I want to bet him Saturday.
How best to make money with him on a $50 budget?
With a $2 million guaranteed pool for the late pick-4 ending with the Preakness (races 10-13), why wouldn’t you take a crack? With seemingly vulnerable favorites in most of these races, this sure seems like a good opportunity to spread accordingly while taking stands against the relatively untested Preamble in the Chick Lang (R11), the come-backing Catholic Boy in the Dixie (R12), and the winless-at-3 Improbable in the Preakness (R13).
Thankfully, I have a couple opinions within the Pimlico Black-Eyed Susan pick four spanning races 8-11, because in a couple of the other races – the feature especially – I do not. Here’s a look at the sequence. (For more detailed accounts of all these races, see my Pimlico analysis available at DRF.com.)
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Race 8 – Miss Preakness
Race 1: Dillon Rocks (#4)
The 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned two back is the highest number in this field.
Was compromised by getting involved in a fast pace over a very taxing yielding turf course last time.
Should appreciate the drop in class after facing nothing but maiden special weight company in his prior starts.
8-1 on ML
Pimlico | Race 13 | 6:48 p.m. (ET) | TimeformUS PPs
The late pick four starts on the 11th race, the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan. There’s no shortage of speed in the field, and it could set up for one of the closing favorites, Always Shopping (6) or Point of Honor (8).
