The Belmont Stakes is a race that typically favors horses on or near the early lead, contrary to popular belief that deep closers will appreciate the 12-furlong trip and excel. A horse who projects to work out an ideal pace-pressing trip is this year’s Preakness Stakes winner WAR OF WILL.

In a race where distance is the great equalizer, will take a shot for some value with SIR WINSTON, the lesser regarded of the Mark Casse duo in this year’s Belmont Stakes.

Sir Winston is coming off far and away the best race of his career in the Peter Pan, has shown an obvious affinity for the quirky Belmont surface, has trained extremely well since his last start, and looks like a horse who should handle the grueling 12 furlongs without issue. The major question is whether he’ll get the proper pace scenario to flatter his late-running style.

TACITUS is the probable winner of the Belmont. He shows the ideal preparation for this 1 1/2-mile test, starting in the Derby, where he was placed third on the disqualification of Maximum Security, before skipping the Preakness – preparation used by Belmont winners Tapwrit (2017) and Creator (2016) in recent years.

By Tapit out of multiple Grade 1 winner Close Hatches, he has the pedigree for Belmont Stakes success. Sons of Tapit have won the Belmont three times over the last five years – Tapwrit, Creator, and Tonalist (2014).

TACITUS enters the Belmont as a total standout. This opinion is hardly unique. The improving colt is likely to start favored following a creditable fourth (placed third) in the Kentucky Derby and subsequent workouts that suggest he is coming up to the best performance of his nascent career.

TACITUS was one of only a few horses to have had any kind of a trip excuse in the Kentucky Derby. He lost position early and then had to take plenty of dirt while in behind horses, and he was finishing as well as anyone to get up for fourth (placed third after the disqualification of Maximum Security). He was withheld from the Preakness to await this race, and skipping the middle leg of the Triple Crown with a Derby also-ran has led to Belmont success in recent years.

P J'S BAD BOY

Trainer: David Nunn

Date: June 1, 1st

Finish: 5th by 11 1/4

Beyer: 42

Off the board in this route but he did make a little middle move before tiring. Hoping to see him back in a sprint in his return, as he ran deceptively well in defeat at six furlongs in his prior start.

Savage Battle
Trainer: Nick Nosowenko
Last race: June 1, 8th
Finish: Fifth by 5 3/4 lengths
Beyer: 84
The Arlington invader was blocked through the stretch in his local debut in the Grade 2 Connaught Cup Stakes.

Focused around a single of the promising maiden Phantom Boss in race 4 at Santa Anita on Sunday, here is a pick-three play covering races 4-6, a sequence that includes the day’s feature, the $150,000 Cinema for 3-year-old grass horses.

Race 4

With possible severe thunder showers in the afternoon, I decided to focus on the early pick four instead of the late one, where anything can happen if the storm shows up. If you can forgive (5) RECESS for being eased in the slop in her last start, she looks formidable in the first leg, race 2. It is a bit of a gamble, but it might be worth building a small ticket around her.

Belmont Park | Race 10 | Post Time 6:24 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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