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DRF Past Performances
A power shift is under way in the distaff division. Letruska upset a thrilling edition of the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park; As Time Goes By crushed the Santa Margarita at Santa Anita. Meanwhile, the distaff focus on Sunday is the Grade 2 Ruffian at Belmont Park.
In the seven years since the Ruffian returned to Belmont, the one-turn mile has been a parade of small-field chalk. Field size numbered six starters or fewer, favorites won 5 of 7. More chalk this year? Maybe not.
Fri, 04/30/2021 - 11:42
Belmont | Race 9 | Post Time 5:05 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up
I’ll be interested to see how the public bets this race, because I wouldn’t want to accept too short a price on my pick, though I do believe she’s the horse to beat.
After our sneaky longshot Pick at Gulfstream got bumped at the start and cut off shortly thereafter we could only grin from ear-to-ear as our Golden Gate Pick was spot-on as our choice Tiz an Edventure scooted home at $13.40 with our other key, favored Nobu, completing a modest trifecta.
Fri, 04/30/2021 - 09:53
Question: If the traditional past performances published by Daily Racing Form already include most handicapping essentials, are online DRF Formulator PPs even necessary?
Actually, they are not, which is a peculiar statement considering this column is intended to highlight key features in Formulator and illustrate their applicability to the Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs.
On paper, Essential Quality is the best horse going into this year’s Kentucky Derby. But when betting a race like the Derby, with a 20-horse field and all the other uncertainties that go with it, value is the key with the question being is Essential Quality worth the short price he figures to be, somewhere in the vicinity of 2-1, after the last of Mattress Mack’s win bets have gone through the windows?
ESSENTIAL QUALITY’s tactical speed and versatility might be key in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Assuming a clean break, the undefeated colt can adapt to any sort of pace scenario. If they go fast up front, as in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he can succeed from eight to 10 lengths off the lead. If they slow down the pace such as in the recent Blue Grass, he can sit right up close. I don’t think he squeezed the lemon dry when scoring at Keeneland last month, and he should be right in the thick of things when the real racing starts on the second turn.
If ESSENTIAL QUALITY had won the Blue Grass by a neck under moderate urging, looking like a horse going through a two-race progression to the Kentucky Derby with his connections ensuring they were leaving something in the tank, I would just eat his relatively short price (made shorter by the intended multi-million wager from Jim McIngvale).
There are lots of ways to lose the Kentucky Derby, including a bad trip from an inside post. But if KNOWN AGENDA gets beat from the rail, the likely reason is he simply was not good enough. Much improved when he added blinkers two back, he employs a versatile style and is comfortable eating dirt inside and behind traffic. He is bred for 1 1/4 miles and established his class scoring a decisive Grade 1 victory last out in the Florida Derby.