Woodbine Mohawk Park: Talented field set to clash in North America Cup

The 2024 North America Cup is the type of handicapping puzzle that any serious player relishes. There are more than a handful of potential contenders and at least as many angles to consider.

The morning-line favorite at 5-2 is Captains Quarters and he figures to be sent off somewhere between 7-5 and 5-2 at post time. Trained by Herb Holland for owner Rich Stiles, the colt is coming off the fastest mile of his career (1:49 1/5), a time that was substantially quicker than his fellow elimination winners over a track rated “good” as rain fell most of the night. Which leads us to the first question handicappers must ponder: Did the track change or get slower from the first North America Cup elimination (race 3) to the last (race 7)?

“I think it was pretty much the same all night,” said Yannick Gingras, who drove in all three eliminations and qualified Ivy Park and Total Stranger for the final. “The next two eliminations they went slow second quarters and that is probably why they have slower final times.”

“The track condition did get slower later in the night,” said Louis-Philippe Roy, who drove throughout the card.

“I’m sure the track didn’t get better, but did it get slower? I don’t know. I only raced in the 10th and 11th after [winning with Captains Quarters in race 3] and I think the track was ok,” said driver Jody Jamieson.

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Evaluating the comments above, I’m not sure we can make any determination that the track slowed down during the card. It was certainly slower than it had been in previous weeks without rain and my estimation is the difference was around one second, though certainly still much faster than a bad weather night during the winter months.

So, do we simply conclude that the horses that qualified for the final – Captains Quarters, Captain Albano, Ivy Park and Janelle Granny – in the first elimination are simply a bit faster than the other finalists?

“I don’t mind people looking at it like that. If the other drivers look at it like that I’ll be fine with it too,” said Jamieson on his horse simply being faster. “I’d like to have that respect. I think it dropped off immensely after his Somebeachsomewhere race but I think that is in the back seat now and people are only thinking about his performance on Saturday.”

“Racing experts would tell you time doesn’t matter, it’s who you beat. Every race is unique, so to compare times between races to evaluate performance is a mistake too many people make,” said Roy.

“I think Captains Quarters is the horse to beat and Captain Albano is nice. They are just better than the other ones. Nijinsky did win kind of easy but the horses that finished second and third in there are maybe not quite as good,” said Gingras.

A huge question when evaluating the finalists for the North America Cup is determining which ones have shown what they can do already and which ones may have some dormant ability that has yet to be unleashed. Most of the horses in the field have raced three to five times in 2024. That certainly leaves room to show more.

Captains Quarters certainly appears like a horse on the upswing. His season was delayed a bit by hooking wheels in his first qualifier and he hasn’t really been taxed in his miles as of yet.

“The beauty about [Captains Quarters] is that he only has eight starts under his belt and he’s still figuring out what he is doing. He could be anything on the scale of great to even greater,” said Jamieson. “Barring any bad luck I think I have the best chance to win. Obviously there are great horses in there, but none that have been managed as well as Herb and Rich have managed this horse.”

Whether second choice on the morning-line Funtime Bayama (3-1) is also still getting better is up in the air. He’s done the heavy lifting while displaying toughness in most of his races on the lead and has now paced four straight races under 1:50, assuming you accept the notion that the track was playing a bit slow last time.

“If he is as good as I think he is, we’ll have a good shot,” said Funtime Bayama’s driver Sylvain Filion at the post-position press conference.

There is a great case to be made that Captain Albano is sitting on the best effort of his life judging by his progression of races. While he finished second behind Captains Quarters in their elimination last weekend, the Noel Daley trainee has dropped time in every start this year, going from a 1:55 qualifier down to 1:49 2/5 last time out.

“I was very happy,” said Daley about Captain Albano’s elimination effort. “I knew I was taking a shot at having him underdone; we didn’t have pop-out [ear] plugs on him, we didn’t have the blind bridle on him; I never changed his shoes. Even though he didn’t race the week before I didn’t go a [training mile] with him. I wanted to win, but I just took a shot that we’d get in [the final].

“It is going to be a very competitive race but I think [Captain Albano will] get more out of [his elimination] than some of the others who are already on their toes. That’s what I’m hoping for anyhow.”

Nijinsky (9-2) is the only horse in the North America Cup field who remains unbeaten (4-for-4) in 2024 and logic would state that the perfect record might mean his off-odds are closer to 5-2 than 9-2. You have to love that he’s won on the lead, from the pocket, and off cover already this year. But is he improving or was his 1:49 Somebeachsomewhere win his bottom?

“A lot of horses in the field can win, Nijinsky is among them. I wouldn’t trade him for anyone else in the field,” said Roy.

A horse where I seriously question whether we’ve seen his best is Legendary Hanover (6-1). He got down to 1:48 3/5 on May 18 at Woodbine Mohawk Park and hasn’t been able to replicate that mile. Of course repeating it could be enough and there is something to be said for owning the fastest mile in the field.

Captain Luke (15-1) is very interesting in terms of potential improvement. His best mile (1:49 3/5) came at The Meadowlands on May 25 and he (for my money) came up short in the elimination round last Saturday. Considering the track and conditions, an argument can be made that he actually paced faster in his 1:50 3/5 third-place finish than at The Meadowlands. Maybe he is still getting down to speed after just three starts on the year?

“He will be better this week,” said driver Scott Zeron on Captain Luke.

Examining the rest of the field . . .

Storm Shadow (15-1) has paced similar 1:50-plus times in four straight starts while still winless on the year. It is hard to think that he will step up with a 1:48 mile, though I guess it is possible.

Ivy Park (15-1) has dropped time in every start and did get into the toughest elimination last time. There may be some room for improvement here.

“I think he faced the two best horses and he only got beat maybe two lengths,” said Gingras on Ivy Park.

Total Stranger (20-1) clearly has big speed but seemed to regress last time and is up against it from post nine.

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“I think he’ll be better following because he was a little lost on the front. If he can get a two- or three-hole trip he’ll be fine,” said Gingras on Total Stranger, who will be driven by Tim Tetrick on Saturday.

Janelle Granny (20-1) does get credit for sticking with the big dogs last week and maybe he can improve, but the post and all-around better competition are a problem.

As a whole the 41st North America Cup shapes up as a very competitive race. Four or five horses appear to be major contenders and you can make a serious case that two or three others could step up to win given the right pace setup. Almost everyone is confident, and that will certainly lead to plenty of chess being played in terms of in-race strategy.

With the potentially contentious nature of the race, we posed the question, which horse(s) are you most concerned with in the field?

“Funtime Bayama just refuses to lose sometimes. Nijinsky is fast as fast can be. There is Captain Albano and Legendary Hanover. I might end up being the favorite but I think there are five that could be the favorite,” said Jamieson.

“When we won with Pebble Beach there were only three chances in the race. Last year there were only two or three chances in the race. This year there are five legit horses and two or three others that could be spoilers. I think it is the most competitive one for a while,” said Daley.

“A lot of horses can win with the right trip, among the horses other than Nijinsky, I think Funtime Bayama is a big strong horse that can overcome a tougher trip, and Legendary Hanover is one that can capitalize the best of a nice trip,” said Roy.

This all leads us to the question of the day: Who will win the North America Cup? Unlike the connections of many of the horses, I’m far from confident in my opinion. I do feel it is vital to avoid the favorite in a race as tight-knit as this one, so that eliminates Captains Quarters in my mind. Then it comes down to where you will find fair value. My gut says that it comes from Captain Albano because 1) he lost his elimination and 2) he isn’t one of the Canadian horses. So he gets my nod with a target price of 7-2 or higher, which should be very attainable.

Regardless of who wins, here’s hoping for an exciting race with plenty of action!