Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 6/15

Top Pick Stats: 303 - 906 / $1699.70 (-$112.30)

Best Bets: 48 - 85 / $156.20 (-$13.80)

Spot Plays: 15 - 82 / $167.70 (+$3.70)

Best Bet: MY GIRL EJ (9TH)

Spot Play: TROPHY TAKER (4TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,4,5,8,10/3,6/1,7,10/9/6 = $6

All Stakes Pick 5 (Race 7): 3,6/2,3,7,8,10/6/4,6/2,3,4,5,6,8,9 = $28

Late Pick 5: 6/4,6/2,3,4,5,6,8,9/1,4/2,4 = $11.20

Early Pick 4: 9/6/3,4,6,9/3,6 = $1.60

Late Pick 4: 4,6/2,3,4,5,6,8,9/1,4/2,4 = $11.20

Race 1: PREFERRED **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

It’s always fun to kick off with a Preferred Pace in the sun at 6:30 to see how fast they will go. (10) DRAGONONTHEBEACH lands in a field that seems to have only a couple inside of him that want to leave, and he should be able to work out a good trip racing near the front. Post 10 helps the price; top call. (8) WHEELS ON FIRE is now a year removed from the Mohawk Gold Cup incident that knocked him out for several months and he has rounder back close to his best form. McNair should be blasting with him and that gives him a chance. (4) CONTROL HEAVEN does his best work racing near the front, and he is teamed with Dunn here. That makes him dangerous. (1) POSEIDON SEELSTER has tactical speed that should enable him to get situated in the top four early in this mile. I could see him tripping out following then finding room and surging late. He is another Pick 5 possibility in a good betting race.

[DRF HARNESS: Get Harness Eye PPs for this card]

Race 2: OPEN TROT

(3) LOGAN PARK is the king of this class locally when he is on his game and his most recent win indicates that he is razor-sharp; call to repeat. (6) GAINES HANOVER was never catching the choice off a 1:25 1/5 three quarters last time. The shape of this race should ensure a faster pace and that gives him a shot. He is the other one that I’ll use in the early Pick 5. (2) LEXUS KODY raced here several times for Team Henry several time at the beginning of his career and he will no doubt be pointed to the front by Gingras. I think the choice overtakes him in the second 1/4 and he follows him home from there. (1) OSCEOLA has come back strong at four, but these are tougher than he beat in the Graduate final and a small share is likely.

[DRF BETS: Wager on tonight's Mohawk Park card at DRF Bets.com!]

Race 3: F&M NW $16,600 L5 or $27,750 L10 AE: OPT CLM $70,000 AE: NW 10 or $125,000 LT

(1) ANGOSTURA HANOVER paced an uncovered 26 3/5 third 1/4 last week and still hung in for a share. She can win here if she finds a live helmet to follow tonight. (7) HUNTRESS makes her third start back and gets a decent post for the first time. Filion will probably blast with her and that makes her a threat. (10) SHES GOT IT ALL was an upset winner at this level with Dunn in the bike last week now she gets Zeron driving for his dad. If you like her to repeat, you will get a square price from post 10. (6) BLUEMEA KISS is on a roll, but she got a golden trip following speedball Major League N, then moving when that one started to stop on the final turn and get the jump on the closers. I don’t see that perfect scenario getting repeated here against tougher. I’ll use her on the bottom.

Race 4: 5YO and younger winners of 2 but not more than 5 or $45,000 LT - Pick 4

(9) TROPHY TAKER produced a huge effort to win a Gold race in his first local start then he tried the best colts, and a 1:49-flat mile was a bit too much for him. He fits much better here, and he will be a single for me. (6) FAST LOUIE draws best, and he exits the same stake as the choice. He is the one to catch here. (2) CAPTAIN FEAR NOT had two tough trips against Nijinsky and he is in a better spot here to take a share. (3) WARRAWEEFORLAURA will likely sit another good trip racing close to the front and land in the bottom of the exotics.

Race 5: ARMBRO FLIGHT FINAL: 3 YEAR OLDS AND OLDER FILLIES AND MARES

(6) M MS DREAM is too good right now and she draws the best post which makes her rivals task even more daunting. She will be a single for me here. (5) CALL ME GOO almost held off the choice two starts back and she had an easy time of it in her elimination for this final. She probably completes a chalky Exacta. (2) TACTICAL MOUNDS closed into an accelerating late pace last week. She is sharp and she can close for a share here. (8) WARRAWEE XENIA had no shot chasing a snail’s pace in her elim. She can close for a share here if the early pace is more typical.

Race 6: NORTH AMERICA CUP XLI CONSOLATION: 3 YEAR OLDS

(9) BETTER IS NICE had a tough trip in his elim and he still managed to take a check. I think he blasts this time, and he gets top billing here. (3) MIRAGE HANOVER was first up in his elim, and he just missed the final. I can see why he is morning line favorite, but he is no lock in here. (6) CLEVER CODY, assuming he behaves this week, surely will be leaving and that will make him the one to catch. (4) NUMBER CRUNCHER is improving, and I don’t mind the mile he paced in his elimination. He is another in with a shot.

Race 7: GOODTIMES FINAL: 3 YEAR OLD COLTS AND GELDINGS **Gtd. $100,000 All Stakes Pick 5**

(3) PRIVATE ACCESS wasn’t asked for anything until late in the mile last week and he was moving well at the wire. He seems perfectly prepped by Blais/Roy and I’ll call him to notch the minor upset over likely favorite (6) HIGHLAND KISMET, who got the jump on him last week and is the obvious one to take down. (1) PICK POCKET raced well in his elim, and I can see J Mac tripping him out and getting a piece of this. (9) SHERMONT has done well for Team Henry. He is worth using at a price in the exotics.

Race 8: MOHAWK GOLD CUP: INVITATIONAL

This race has the feel of one that will have a lot of action with the winner coming from the outer flow and I’ll take a stab with (2) BONNIPRINCLOUIS N who was impressive in his North American debut and should offer a square price jumping in class. (3) ABUCKABETT HANOVER was terrific here last week, making several moves then driving away late. He is hard to leave out off that sharp mile. (8) OAKWOOD ARDAN IR is 9 for 10 racing on this continent, his only loss coming by a neck in a race where he got an impossible trip. He is another formidable contender in a good race. (7) BUZZSAW RUSS is a big bomb that interests me because he paced a 26 1/5 third 1/4 here last week to take the lead on the last turn. I think he sits and rallies now and he is worth using at a huge price with Tetrick in the bike.

Race 9: FAN HANOVER FINAL: 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES - Late Pick 5

(6) MY GIRL EJ was impressive winning her elimination and she will be a single for me starting from the best post. (1) IT’S A LOVE THING was unlucky to get beat by a pylon skimmer, but she will have to hurry from the rail post tonight in a field with a few leavers. You can look at (5) GEOCENTRIC two ways: she got a needed tightener in and was just short of catching the choice, or she got the far easier trip and couldn’t get past. I’m taking the latter approach and I will be singling the choice. (8) ODDS ON PLATINUM races tough every week and she should get a piece of this at a decent price.

Race 10: ROSES ARE RED FINAL: 3 YEAR OLDS AND OLDER FILLIES AND MARES - Pick 4

(6) SYLVIA HANOVER is yet to win at four, but she also hasn’t been asked to look a rival in the eye which is her best game. I think she gets more aggressive tonight and scores at a decent price. (4) TWIN B JOE FRESH rarely beats the choice on the square but she has been impressive so far this year and she displayed big speed to cruise to victory in her elim. She will probably be the one that the choice has to get past. (3) ALWAYS B NAUGHTY stole a 29-flat third 1/4 last week and that sealed the deal vs. the choice. I don’t see that trip again for her with $305K on the line; using underneath. (8) SO MUCH MORE got a great Macdonald steer to take 2nd in her elim. I think she closes for a smaller share this time.

Race 11: NORTH AMERICA CUP XLI FINAL: 3 YEAR OLDS

This edition of the NA Cup is unique in that all of the three elimination winners got the best trips to prevail. Based on the post draw, I think (8) LEGENDARY HANOVER can float out, get in the flow, find a trip, and give Macdonald his first score in Canada’s signature harness race. His price will be better now, too. (5) CAPTAINS QUARTERS, last year’s Metro Pace winner, seems to be coming to this race perfect and Jamieson has had some luck in this event. He would be no surprise. (6) FUNTIME BAYAMA usually puts himself in position to get good trips racing near the front and he is one of several in with a shot in a great betting race. (4) NIJINSKY is clearly a different horse at three and yet another contender that could do with the right trip. (3) CAPTAIN LUKE was locked in with pace last week. He is worth using on multi-race tickets at a price with The Money Man in the bike.

[DRF HARNESS: Sign up for our FREE DRF Harness Digest Newsletter]

Race 12: NW $8,000 L5 or $16,000 L10 AE: NW 7LT or $1,500 in 2024

(1) STONE CARVER takes a big drop here and I imagine Miller will have him on the lead before the 1/2 then sail to victory from there. (4) MAPPOS LION is no stranger to this track having taken 14 of his 22 wins here, all of them with McDonnell in the bike. His best race puts him right there. (5) ROCKME ROLLME was better last time on the class drop and J Mac will get him positioned on or near the front early in this mile. He should be part of the exotics. (6) KOPI LUWAK got hammered at the windows last week in a race where the bettors made the wrong horse the favorite. He couldn’t stay with Code Name Cigar Box. He can take a slice vs. these.

Race 13: NW $15,150 L5 or $21,700 L10 AE: OPT CLM $70,000

We have a mandatory High-5 payout here and this looks like a race that sets up for stout closer (2) AMERICAN HISTORY, who comes off a solid effort vs. better last week. I’ll single him on top. (4) JABBERWOCKY keeps Zeron in the bike and he will likely get a fast track tonight so he will probably carry his speed a long way this time. (5) RON drops and draws well, and he usually races well at this level. He should be part of the High-5. (1) POINTS NORTH should do better here starting from an inside post. He is a good one to use underneath at a price. (6) UNCLE SHANK A draws best, and he should get positioned near the front again then stay for a slice.

My 20-cent High-5 tickets: 2/13456/13456/13456/ALL = $96 and 4/2/13456/13456/ALL = $19.20