Saturday is the biggest day of the Kentucky Derby prep season, with three Grade 1, $1 million stakes – the Santa Anita Derby, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, and the Blue Grass at Keeneland. Keeneland has two additional Grade 1 races – the $500,000 Ashland and a strong renewal of the $300,000 Madison. The Grade 1, $400,000 Santa Anita Oaks, featuring the sensational Songbird, is the top undercard race in Arcadia, Calif. And the Grade 1, $400,000 Carter is the primary supporting feature at Aqueduct. Blue Grass Stakes Zulu and Brody’s Cause are the two morning-line favorites, and I’m playing against both. Zulu actually ran well when second to Mohaymen in the Fountain of Youth most recently, his first start around two turns and in a stakes race. And I do not subscribe to the thinking that Zulu’s Fountain of Youth effort doesn’t look as good now that Mohaymen came back with a meek fourth in last week’s Florida Derby. To buy that, you have to assume that the Mohaymen who finished ahead of Zulu is the same Mohaymen who took a step backward last Saturday, and I don’t buy that. Here’s my issue with Zulu: So far, he has shown that he wants to be with the early pace. There is a lot of other early speed in this Blue Grass, which makes such a trip problematic. Brody’s Cause’s closing style fits the pace scenario, and he won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity and finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Keeneland’s main track last October. The problem? Brody’s Cause never moved a muscle when seventh as the favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby. Maybe he didn’t like the track, and maybe he’ll improve the second time back, but I can’t take him off such a non-effort. :: Bet Blue Grass Stakes with DRF Bets and get FREE access to this article and all of DRF Plus, including Keeneland selections, video, and real-time analysis. He drew as poorly as possible with post 14, but I’m going with My Man Sam. My Man Sam’s last two outings at Aqueduct, his second and third starts and his first attempts around two turns, were big. He came from far back to crush maidens two starts back, earning a 91 Beyer Speed Figure, and was an excellent second last time to Matt King Coal, a horse I hold in very high regard, earning a 95 Beyer. My Man Sam is the only one in this big field to have paired up Beyers above 90 (many haven’t even cracked 90 once), and his late kick fits the pace setup. Yet he’ll be a square price because of his bad post. My hope is that all the speed will quickly string out this field, allowing My Man Sam to drop in and save at least some ground on the first turn. Wood Memorial Shagaf, who made it 3 for 3 with his victory in the Gotham, and Outwork, a game second in the quickly run Tampa Bay Derby, are the big names here and may wind up punishing me, but I’m eager to bet against both. Shagaf rode a golden rail most of the way in the Gotham, and Outwork’s front-running trip in the Tampa Bay Derby became much easier when the speediest horse in the race, Awesome Banner, inexplicably did not go. I’m banking on the Aqueduct allowance event in which Matt King Coal beat My Man Sam being a key race because I like Matt King Coal here. Matt King Coal was making his first start in four months, was lightly trained, set a pace that was absolutely blazing compared with the other routes that day, and still won. He has every right to improve and is the main speed in this Wood. Santa Anita Derby Symmetry demands I include this race even if I believe the favored Mor Spirit to be the most likely winner. I have great respect for Danzing Candy, who wired Mor Spirit in the San Felipe, but Mor Spirit got an educational trip that day and will be better for it now. :: Santa Anita: Buy PPs But I do think Denman’s Call can get a piece here at a price. Denman’s Call was given a tall task against Nyquist and Exaggerator in the San Vicente in just his second start and was too close early last time in the San Pedro. I’m hoping Denman’s Call gets a more relaxed trip this time, which might lead to big improvement.