Santa Anita Derby

COUNTDOWN REWIND: SANTA ANITA DERBY

By Jeremy Plonk

Date: Saturday, April 6, 2013
Track: Santa Anita
Kentucky Derby Points Awarded: 100-40-20-10
Distance: 1 1/8 miles (2 turns) on dirt

HANDICAPPERS’ RECAP: Few horses ascended through the Santa Anita ranks this winter-spring meeting to assume the mantle that was vacated by a historically weak crop of western 2-year-olds last year. One of those was HEAR THE GHOST (Jerry Hollendorfer), winner of the San Felipe, but his injury in the days leading up to the Santa Anita Derby weakened an already struggling cast. Heavy favoritism fell to San Felipe runner-up FLASHBACK (Bob Baffert), whose Lewis Memorial win in February put him atop most west coast wish lists. But his normally confident trainer tempered his enthusiasm by entering not one, but two barnmates in POWER BROKER and SUPER NINETY NINE, a sign that FLASHBACK may have been vulnerable.  And he was. Meanwhile, GOLDENCENTS (Doug O’Neill) had appeared to some workout observers as being over the top and heading south of his form that saw him win the Delta Jackpot and Sham Stakes before getting caught up in a pace melee in the San Felipe. This time GOLDENCENTS punched it home and gave trainer O’Neill a second straight Santa Anita Derby score following I’ll Have Another, albeit against a field that does not appear to have the quality of 2012’s also-rans like Creative Cause and Paynter.

ON THE CLOCK: SUPER NINETY NINE set solid splits of 22.72, 23.76 and 23.99 through the first six furlongs, while the SA Derby came home in 25.25 and 13.04 over the final three-eighths. The pace was indicative of what you expect in Southern California and representative of the level. The final time of 1:48.76 was strong, not notably about 4-5 lengths slower than I’ll Have Another the previous April.

THE EYE TEST: GOLDENCENTS worked out a stellar trip and did it on his own, pressing first-over on lone speed SUPER NINETY NINE. Even with a loose rein down the backstretch, he didn’t run off on jockey Kevin Krigger and showed good patience. When he accelerated on the far turn, GOLDENCENTS could not immediately put away SUPER NINETY NINE and by the time they reached the quarter-pole, FLASHBACK had loomed an ominous threat three-wide. It appeared the momentum of FLASHBACK would carry him past the leaders and onto victory. But FLASHBACK did not corner well and was awkward trying to change leads, ducking in, and perhaps injuring himself at that point. The loss of momentum stymied his rally briefly and gave GOLDENCENTS enough breathing room to hold the favorite at bay to the wire. GOLDENCENTS was not reaching out much at all in the final yards and did not impress late. Those who followed our reviews all season know a similar tale in victory in the Sham back in January. None of the others ever factored or had noticeable excuses for their performances, the most disappointing of which obviously was POWER BROKER, away since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but who had been working up a storm in recent weeks for the final exam cram.

PROJECTING THE SANTA ANITA DERBY FORWARD: FLASHBACK exited the race with a knee chip and was removed from the Triple Crown trail. The defections of FLASHBACK and HEAR THE GHOST weaken the west coast’s repute as it looks as though only GOLDENCENTS will move on from the Santa Anita Derby to the Kentucky Derby. Monitor the development of GOLDENCENTS and notice if he’s blossoming as strong as I’ll Have Another did in the weeks leading up to the Derby for clues. Questions whether he’s a true classic-distance horse linger, but he is a quality speed horse in the mold of a Sidney’s Candy from a few years back, but note that comparable runner was chewed up in the Kentucky Derby pace.