NEW YORK – The end of the Kentucky Derby prep season is in sight and on Saturday we move a major step closer to the conclusion with three critical final preludes – the Grade 1, $1 million Santa Anita Derby, the Grade 2, $1 million Blue Grass at Keeneland, and the Grade 2, $750,000 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. All three races head stakes-packed cards at their respective tracks. There are six other stakes at Santa Anita, including the Grade 1, $600,000 Santa Anita Handicap and the Grade 1, $400,000 Santa Anita Oaks. There are four other stakes at Keeneland, including the Grade 1, $500,000 Ashland and the Grade 1, $300,000 Madison. And there are also four other stakes at Aqueduct, including the Grade 1, $400,000 Carter Handicap. Wood Memorial Betting value comes in all shapes and sizes. And it is not a requirement that it must come in the form of double-digit odds. I mention that (again) because the intent of this space is to find value, no matter its superficial appearance. This renewal of the Wood is a good example. Tacitus is the morning line favorite at 5-2 in the determination of David Aragona, who makes a fine morning line. On the surface, 5-2 might not seem like a great price. But to me, in this particular instance, it would actually be an appealing price. Tacitus may have had a sweet trip most recently in the Tampa Bay Derby, but he won decisively in his first start off a layoff, his first start around two turns, his first start against winners, and his first start in a stakes race. I believe Tacitus has far more upside than anyone else in this Wood, especially going a distance. I think he’s better than 50-50 to win. So if I feel that way, and he’s close to his morning line price of 5-2, then it makes him a value play. :: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 Kentucky Derby contenders with comments from Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker As for Saturday’s other Derby preps, the morning-line favorites in the Blue Grass – Vekoma and Win Win Win – seem vulnerable, so I’ll side with Somelikeithotbrown. Somelikeithotbrown is an unknown on dirt, but he ran off with the Jeff Ruby last time despite contesting a strong pace, and has already won twice at this 1 1/8-mile distance. His 13 opponents have yet to win at this distance, and several have not even attempted it. In the Santa Anita Derby, Game Winner will take a ton of beating. However, even though I’m an Instagrand skeptic when it comes to going long, he can be in such complete control of the early pace that he might post a mild upset. Commonwealth Stakes This is one of the undercard stakes at Keeneland, and between speedballs Recruiting Ready, Uncontested, Bobby’s Wicked One, and Richiesinthehouse, a contested early pace seems highly likely. It also looks like Copper Town, who would otherwise be a logical win candidate off his best races, one of which was a strong allowance win over the track last fall off a one-year absence, could be in for an uncomfortable trip from the rail. He is at risk of either getting cooked early if he attempts to hold his inside position, or of getting shuffled back down inside, especially when the speed starts to tire. I’m going with Warrior’s Club, who I think is primed to capitalize on an anticipated pace collapse. Warrior’s Club made a nice run from off the pace in an allowance route at Oaklawn last month to get the lead in midstretch, and was only caught late. Granted, he was nicely set up pace-wise that day, but that was his first start in four months. Warrior’s Club has worked sharply since, should improve second time back, and I love the cut back in distance for him from two turns to an extended sprint like this. It also doesn’t hurt that Warrior’s Club won this race last year. He was a surprise that day at 23-1, but he overcame traffic trouble into the stretch that allowed first run to Limousine Liberal, one of his primary opponents again on Saturday. Ashland Stakes Champion Jaywalk must do better than her weary fourth in the Davona Dale in her 3-year-old bow. If she doesn’t, Feedback and Restless Rider become logical alternatives. That said, I’m taking a flyer with Lady Kate. Lady Kate finished second last time in the Suncoast Stakes, but considering she moved to a dead rail on the far turn, she ran better than it appears on paper. Lady Kate still must improve to contend, but after only two career starts, she has every right to do so.