Weekend Warrior for April 4: Picks for Shakertown, Providencia, Carter

NEW YORK – We are getting down to the last few Kentucky Derby preps, and we have three Grade 1, $1 million ones Saturday – the Santa Anita Derby, the Blue Grass at Keeneland, and the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. And, not surprisingly, there is a basketful of important undercard stakes at all three tracks.

SHAKERTOWN STAKES

Undrafted certainly will have lots of support in this supporting stakes at Keeneland off his close third in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint in his most recent appearance, and because his trainer, Wesley Ward, is on a hot streak. But Undrafted has always struck me as the type who needs a race or two off a layoff before he reaches peak form.

Power Alert is appealing off turf-sprint wins at Gulfstream in his first two U.S. starts. But if Power Alert is a top contender, then you have every right to take a shot with Amelia’s Wild Ride, which is exactly what I’m doing.

Amelia’s Wild Ride finished second in both of Power Alert’s Gulfstream wins but had tough trips both times, especially most recently in the Silks Run. Amelia’s Wild Ride was boxed in on the rail behind a leader in the Silks Run from midway on the far turn to upper stretch, losing all his momentum, while Power Alert enjoyed an unobstructed outside run. Amelia’s Wild Ride finished strongly once he finally did get through on the rail to be beaten just a half-length, and he galloped out in front. On Saturday, Amelia’s Wild Ride has a better, outside position.

It should also be noted that in between his seconds to Power Alert, Amelia’s Wild Ride won the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint, beating Green Mask, who was third last Saturday in the Al Quoz Sprint in Dubai.

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In the Blue Grass, I looked for reasons to go against the heavily favored Carpe Diem, especially since this might be his first encounter with a wet track, although he’s bred for it. But I couldn’t. Carpe Diem has every right to improve off his Tampa Bay Derby victory, and if he does, he’ll win. However, I remain interested in Classy Class, who I think still hasn’t had a fair shot to show what he can do going two turns.

PROVIDENCIA STAKES

Almost everyone in this big field at Santa Anita is stretching out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time, and no one interests me more in that regard than Havanna Belle.

Havanna Belle made her U.S. debut in the Sweet Life Stakes on the downhill course, and after breaking slowly and finishing a willing sixth, she galloped out sneakily well past the wire. Last fall, Havanna Belle ran well to hit the board in three one-mile races in Ireland, finishing second, ahead of 18 opponents, in one of them. That bodes well for a successful stretch-out Saturday.

I lean to the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby, but this is an instance when I’m not ashamed to side with the chalk. I think Dortmund is a monster. He’s battle-tested, horses he has beaten have run well elsewhere, and he can win on the lead or from off the pace. Prospect Park and Bolo are nice colts (as is recent allowance winner One Lucky Dane), but Dortmund was just toying with them when he won the San Felipe.

CARTER HANDICAP

This Carter at Aqueduct came up strong, with Palace, a winner of two Grade 1 races last year; Clearly Now, who was freakish in winning the Belmont Sprint last summer; and Grade 1 winner The Big Beast. But I like Wild Dude.

Wild Dude is a closer, and he showed just how good he is right now when he won the San Carlos last time out in his second start back from a long layoff despite having no pace to favor his running style. There is pace in this Carter, and Wild Dude can drop back and make one big run, which is his most effective approach.

As for the Wood Memorial, I, like many others, wonder how far Daredevil really wants to go. But Daredevil, the winner of the Champagne, is also a legitimately good colt, and he might never have a better opportunity to win a Grade 1 race at 1 1/8 miles than this one. El Kabeir is as tough as nails and has had a great winter but has not yet beaten an opponent of Daredevil’s quality.