May 2nd, 2015 − Churchill Downs

Kentucky Derby

Horse/Sire Watchmaker
Odds
Last Race, Result,
and Beyer
Next Likely Race,
Track, and Date
Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker Comments
American Pharoah 5-1 Rebel, 3/14 Arkansas Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Considering his accelerated schedule to make the Rebel, I think he can improve off the race.
by Pioneerof the Nile   1st by 6 1/4, 100 Oaklawn, 4/11 MW: I fully expect him to improve. Now, let's find out if he can concede the early lead and still win.
Owner: Zayat Stables; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Victor Espinoza
 
Dortmund 6-1 San Felipe, 3/7 Santa Anita Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Has all the tools -- speed to get position, ability to route, constitution to handle racing schedule.
by Big Brown   1st by 1 1/4, 104 Santa Anita, 4/4 MW: Didn't regress an inch in the San Felipe. In fact, he ran better. He's just a monster right now.
Owner: Kaleem Shah; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Martin Garcia
 
Carpe Diem 10-1 Tampa Bay Derby, 3/7 Blue Grass, 1 1/8 m JP: Picked right up where he left off last year with an excellent performance. He is one of the ones.
by Giant's Causeway   1st by 5, 98 Keeneland, 4/4 MW: Beat little, but did it the right way, and will only get better with racing and added distance.
Owner: WinStar Farm & Stonestreet Stable; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: John Velazquez
 
Firing Line 12-1 Sunland Derby, 3/22 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Thrives with time between starts. Like the way he finished up going 1 1/8 miles. Still improving.
by Line of David   1st by 14 1/4, 97 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: Crushed an empty field at Sunland, but he can really run, and he obviously flatters Dortmund.
Owner: Arnold Zetcher; Trainer: Simon Callaghan; Jockey: Gary Stevens
 
Materiality 12-1 Florida Derby, 3/28 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Talented, very game in Fla. Derby, but think lack of experience catches up with him on May 2.
by Afleet Alex   1st by 1 1/2, 110 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: The unraced at 2 thing is big. But just as big is the uncertainty if he can win from off the pace.
Owner: Alto Racing; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: John Velazquez
 
Mubtaahij 12-1 UAE Derby, 3/28 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Estimated Beyer of 95 for UAE Derby win. Tall order to ship here and face strong group of locals.
by Dubawi   1st by 8, n/a Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: Had a perfect trip and beat questionable company; a potential massive underlay in this Derby.
Owner: Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum: Mike de Kock; Jockey: Christophe Soumillon
 
International Star 15-1 Louisiana Derby, 3/28 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Has improved throughout Derby preps at FG, with career-best Beyers every time. Gritty colt.
by Fusaichi Pegasus   1st by a neck, 98 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: Keep expecting his streak to end, and he keeps winning, but he's winning over second-raters.
Owner: Ken & Sarah Ramsey; Trainer: Mike Maker; Jockey: Miguel Mena
 
Prospect Park 15-1 San Felipe, 3/7 Santa Anita Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Continues to get better and better. Certainly no shame running a strong second to Dortmund.
by Tapit   2nd by 1 1/4, 102 Santa Anita, 4/4 MW: None at all. However, in my view, Dortmund was merely toying with him, and everyone else.
Owner: Pam & Martin Wygod; Trainer: Clifford Sise Jr.; Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
 
Upstart 15-1 Florida Derby, 3/28 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Top-class colt, but worried he's primed to regress after consecutive races over tiring surfaces.
by Flatter   2nd by 1 1/2, 108 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: In the old days, racing on deep tracks would make you tougher; should have won Fla. Derby.
Owner: Ralph Evans; Trainer: Rick Violette Jr.; Jockey: Jose Ortiz
 
Dubai Sky 20-1 Spiral, 3/21 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Has picked off low-hanging fruit to be in position for a Derby start if he trains well on CD dirt.
by Candy Ride   1st by 2 1/4, 92 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: Turf/synthetic colt wasn't a first-stage TC nominee despite two route wins at 2. That's telling.
Owner: Three Chimneys Farm & Besilu Stable; Trainer: Bill Mott; Jockey: Jose Lezcano
 
El Kabeir 20-1 Gotham, 3/7 Wood Memorial, 1 1/8 m JP: Remarkable how he has braved brutal winter, kept on firing. Kudos to John & Tonja Terranova.
by Scat Daddy   1st by 2 3/4, 89 Aqueduct, 4/4 MW: As tough as nails, I'd love to own him, but that was an especially weak running of the Gotham.
Owner: Zayat Stables; Trainer; John Terranova II; Jockey: C.C. Lopez
 
One Lucky Dane 20-1 SA Allowance, 3/19 Santa Anita Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Yet another who franked form of BC Juvenile. Likely needs to finish at least 2nd at SA to get in.
by Lookin At Lucky   1st by 9 3/4, 97 Santa Anita, 4/4 MW: Lots of talent, but coming back in a couple of weeks against this SA Derby crew is a lot to ask.
Owner: Michael Petersen; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
 
Stanford 20-1 Louisiana Derby, 3/28 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Couldn’t last at 1 1/8 miles despite soft pace in La. Derby. Competition, distance tougher in Ky.
by Malibu Moon   2nd by a neck, 98 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: Was crushed by Materiality before his FG start, so it makes me wonder about the La. Derby.
Owner: Stonestreet Stables, Magnier, et al; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Florent Geroux
 
Bolo 30-1 San Felipe, 3/7 Santa Anita Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Training was interrupted by rain heading into the San Felipe, yet lost by less than two lengths.
by Temple City   3rd by 1 3/4, 101 Santa Anita, 4/4 MW: Nothing wrong with his San Felipe effort. Showed he can handle dirt, and handle it very well.
Owner: Golden Pegasus Racing & Mack; Trainer: Carla Gaines; Jockey: Mike Smith
 
Daredevil 30-1 Swale, 3/7 Wood Memorial, 1 1/8 m JP: Ran into buzzsaw in comeback. Goes two turns next. I remain skeptical over ability to go long.
by More Than Ready   2nd by 2 3/4, 99 Aqueduct, 4/4 MW: He ran okay, even in defeat. I just wonder why he didn't show more of his positional speed.
Owner: Let's Go Stable, WinStar Farm, China Horse Club; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Javier Castellano
 
Far Right 30-1 Southwest, 2/22 Arkansas Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Arkansas Derby just got a whole lot tougher with American Pharoah back; new sheriff in town.
by Notional   1st by 3/4, 91 Oaklawn, 4/11 MW: Has to hope someone hooks and cooks American Pharoah early. Otherwise, he's in trouble.
Owner: Robert LaPenta & Harry Rosenblum; Trainer: Ron Moquett; Jockey: Mike Smith
 
Frosted 30-1 Fountain of Youth, 2/21 Wood Memorial, 1 1/8 m JP: Don't know what to make of last race. Went from a sure winner to stopping like engine blew.
by Tapit   4th by 4 3/4, 85 Aqueduct, 4/4 MW: Even if a legit excuse surfaces, horses who do what he did in Ftn of Youth often don't pan out.
Owner: Godolphin Racing; Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin; Jockey: Joel Rosario
 
Itsaknockout 30-1 Florida Derby, 3/28 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Absurdly tiring surface for Fla. Derby made him look worse than he is, but think he's a cut below.
by Lemon Drop Kid   4th by 21, 76 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: Was exposed in the Florida Derby, and in a most unflattering way; he's not as good as these.
Owner: Starlight Racing; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Luis Saez
 
Ocho Ocho Ocho 30-1 San Felipe, 3/7 Blue Grass, 1 1/8 m JP: Comeback race was a complete throw-out; had trouble from the get-go. Last chance for points.
by Street Sense   8th by 15 1/2, 76 Keeneland, 4/4 MW: Even if you ignore his San Felipe, his perfect trip win in Delta Jackpot was over lesser horses.
Owner: D P Racing.; Trainer: Jim Cassidy; Jockey: Santiago Gonzalez
 
War Story 30-1 Louisiana Derby, 3/28 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Looked like he was making steady progress until last time. Finally broke well, but had no excuse.
by Northern Afleet   3rd by 4 1/2, 91 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: His Beyer Figures haven't moved that much, so he's not progressing, and is not good enough.
Owner: Christopher Dunn & Looch Racing; Trainer: Tom Amoss; Jockey: Joe Talamo