May 2nd, 2015 − Churchill Downs

Kentucky Derby

Horse/Sire Watchmaker
Odds
Last Race, Result,
and Beyer
Next Likely Race,
Track, and Date
Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker Comments
American Pharoah 5-1 Rebel, 3/14 Arkansas Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Considering his accelerated schedule to make the Rebel, I think he can improve off the race.
by Pioneerof the Nile   1st by 6 1/4, 100 Oaklawn, 4/11 MW: I fully expect him to improve. Now, let's find out if he can concede the early lead and still win.
Owner: Zayat Stables; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Victor Espinoza
 
Dortmund 6-1 San Felipe, 3/7 Santa Anita Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Has all the tools -- speed to get position, ability to route, constitution to handle racing schedule.
by Big Brown   1st by 1 1/4, 104 Santa Anita, 4/4 MW: Didn't regress an inch in the San Felipe. In fact, he ran better. He's just a monster right now.
Owner: Kaleem Shah; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Martin Garcia
 
Carpe Diem 10-1 Tampa Bay Derby, 3/7 Blue Grass, 1 1/8 m JP: Picked right up where he left off last year with an excellent performance. He is one of the ones.
by Giant's Causeway   1st by 5, 98 Keeneland, 4/4 MW: Beat little, but did it the right way, and will only get better with racing and added distance.
Owner: WinStar Farm & Stonestreet Stable; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: John Velazquez
 
Firing Line 10-1 Sunland Derby, 3/22 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Thrives with time between starts. Like the way he finished up going 1 1/8 miles. Still improving.
by Line of David   1st by 14 1/4, 97 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: Crushed an empty field at Sunland, but he can really run, and he obviously flatters Dortmund.
Owner: Arnold Zetcher; Trainer: Simon Callaghan; Jockey: Gary Stevens
 
Upstart 12-1 Fountain of Youth, 2/21 Florida Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Was not trained as aggressively for last start, gave rivals weight on tiring track, and still "won."
by Flatter   1st by 2 3/4 (dq-pl. 2nd), 95 Gulfstream, 3/28 MW: All of that is why his Fountain of Youth was good, and we know he can run better than that.
Owner: Ralph Evans; Trainer: Rick Violette Jr.; Jockey: Jose Ortiz
 
Far From Over 15-1 Withers, 2/7 Wood Memorial, 1 1/8 m JP: Major props for overcoming a disastrous start to rally and win a stakes in only second outing.
by Blame   1st by 1 3/4, 96 Aqueduct, 4/4 MW: His much-the-best Withers win got a big boost when El Kabeir came back and won Gotham.
Owner: Black Rock Thoroughbreds, Covello & Madaket St.; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Manuel Franco
 
Prospect Park 15-1 San Felipe, 3/7 Santa Anita Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Continues to get better and better. Certainly no shame running a strong second to Dortmund.
by Tapit   2nd by 1 1/4, 102 Santa Anita, 4/4 MW: None at all. However, in my view, Dortmund was merely toying with him, and everyone else.
Owner: Pam & Martin Wygod; Trainer: Clifford Sise Jr.; Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
 
Dubai Sky 20-1 Spiral, 3/21 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Has picked off low-hanging fruit to be in position for a Derby start if he trains well on CD dirt.
by Candy Ride   1st by 2 1/4, 92 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: Turf/synthetic colt wasn't a first-stage TC nominee despite two route wins at 2. That's telling.
Owner: Three Chimneys Farm & Besilu Stable; Trainer: Bill Mott; Jockey: Jose Lezcano
 
El Kabeir 20-1 Gotham, 3/7 Wood Memorial, 1 1/8 m JP: Remarkable how he has braved brutal winter, kept on firing. Kudos to John & Tonja Terranova.
by Scat Daddy   1st by 2 3/4, 89 Aqueduct, 4/4 MW: As tough as nails, I'd love to own him, but that was an especially weak running of the Gotham.
Owner: Zayat Stables; Trainer; John Terranova II; Jockey: C.C. Lopez
 
International Star 20-1 Risen Star, 2/21 Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Very cool horse who simply has no fear. Came through tight opening with quick acceleration.
by Fusaichi Pegasus   1st by 1, 93 Fair Grounds, 3/28 MW: Better than I first gave him credit for, but I still don't think he's an elite Derby contender.
Owner: Ken & Sarah Ramsey; Trainer: Mike Maker; Jockey: Miguel Mena
 
Itsaknockout 20-1 Fountain of Youth, 2/21 Florida Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Fortunate to get put up in Ftn of Youth, remain unbeaten. Rematch with Upstart in Fla. Derby.
by Lemon Drop Kid   2nd by 2 3/4 (pl. 1st), 90 Gulfstream, 3/28 MW: Upstart didn't run his best race, and was still better than him; not feeling it now with this one.
Owner: Starlight Racing; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Luis Saez
 
Materiality 20-1 Islamorada Hcp, 3/6 Florida Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: With Khozan sidelined, he now carries hopes of those who believe someone can emulate Apollo.
by Afleet Alex   1st by 5 3/4, 104 Gulfstream, 3/28 MW: Looks nice enough on paper, but will be stepping way up in Florida Derby.
Owner: Alto Racing; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: John Velazquez
 
One Lucky Dane 20-1 SA Allowance, 3/19 Blue Grass, SA Derby, or Wood Mem., JP: Yet another who franked the form of BC Juvenile. Time only for one late prep to make Derby.
by Lookin At Lucky   1st by 9 3/4, 96 4/4, or Arkansas Derby, 4/11 MW: Plenty of talent here, but if American Pharoah's schedule has been tight, what has his been?
Owner: Michael Petersen; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
 
Bolo 30-1 San Felipe, 3/7 Santa Anita Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Training was interrupted by rain heading into the San Felipe, yet lost by less than two lengths.
by Temple City   3rd by 1 3/4, 101 Santa Anita, 4/4 MW: Nothing wrong with his San Felipe effort. Showed he can handle dirt, and handle it very well.
Owner: Golden Pegasus Racing & Mack; Trainer: Carla Gaines; Jockey: Mike Smith
 
Daredevil 30-1 Swale, 3/7 Wood Memorial, 1 1/8 m JP: Ran into buzzsaw in comeback. Goes two turns next. I remain skeptical over ability to go long.
by More Than Ready   2nd by 2 3/4, 103 Aqueduct, 4/4 MW: He ran okay, even in defeat. I just wonder why he didn't show more of his positional speed.
Owner: Let's Go Stable, WinStar Farm, China Horse Club; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Javier Castellano
 
Far Right 30-1 Southwest, 2/22 Arkansas Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Arkansas Derby just got a whole lot tougher with American Pharoah back; new sheriff in town.
by Notional   1st by 3/4, 91 Oaklawn, 4/11 MW: Has to hope someone hooks and cooks American Pharoah early. Otherwise, he's in trouble.
Owner: Robert LaPenta & Harry Rosenblum; Trainer: Ron Moquett; Jockey: Mike Smith
 
Frosted 30-1 Fountain of Youth, 2/21 Wood Memorial, 1 1/8 m JP: Don't know what to make of last race. Went from a sure winner to stopping like engine blew.
by Tapit   4th by 4 3/4, 87 Aqueduct, 4/4 MW: Even if a legit excuse surfaces, horses who do what he did in Ftn of Youth often don't pan out.
Owner: Godolphin Racing; Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin; Jockey: Joel Rosario
 
Keen Ice 30-1 Risen Star, 2/21 Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Best thing that happened to him was leaving GP, racing at FG. Long-winded type is improving.
by Curlin   3rd by 2 3/4, 88 Fair Grounds, 3/28 MW: He must improve, and by quite a bit, because he hasn't run a race yet that makes him a threat.
Owner: Donegal Racing; Trainer: Dale Romans; Jockey: James Graham
 
Mr. Z 30-1 Southwest, 2/22 Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Has kept good company, but erratic behavior has been a concern. Long FG stretch a test for him.
by Malibu Moon   3rd by 3/4, 90 Fair Grounds, 3/28 MW: Once close to Dortmund, Firing Line. They progressed, he did not. Has become a bridesmaid.
Owner: Zayat Stables; Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas; Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
 
War Story 30-1 Risen Star, 2/21 Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Thought he ran quite well to rally for second in Risen Star after journey to/from OP that week.
by Northern Afleet   2nd by 1, 91 Fair Grounds, 3/28 MW: Seriously, did he walk from New Orleans to Hot Springs, because that would be truly tough.
Owner: Christopher Dunn & Looch Racing; Trainer: Tom Amoss; Jockey: Joe Talamo