May 3rd, 2014 − Churchill Downs

Kentucky Derby

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POST HORSE/SIRE TRACK ODDS WATCHMAKER ODDS BEST BEYER JAY PRIVMAN AND MIKE WATCHMAKER COMMENTS
           
1 Vicar's in Trouble 20-1 15-1 98s JP: Capitalized in La. Derby when other speed horse broke poorly. Can't envision a similar scenario here.
  by Into Mischief       MW: A nice colt, but can't see him making the lead without paying a price, can't see him effectively closing.
  Owner: Ken and Sarah Ramsey; Trainer: Mike Maker; Jockey: Rosie Napravnik
 
2 Harry's Holiday 50-1 50-1 85 JP: Ran a good race in Spiral, was dreadful in Blue Grass. This seems like an awfully high hurdle for him.
  by Harlan's Holiday       MW: Maybe he should consider the Grand National because his "good" Spiral was a painfully slow race.
  Owner: Skychai Racing and Sand Dollar Stable; Trainer: Mike Maker; Jockey: Corey Lanerie
 
3 Uncle Sigh 30-1 30-1 96 JP: Raced wide in Wood, but never really got into the race. Seems like water is getting too deep for him.
  by Indian Charlie       MW: I can toss his Wood; he had no trip after a slow start. He can run, but skeptical he wants 10 furlongs.
  Owner: Wounded Warrior Stables and Anthony Robertson; Trainer: Gary Contessa; Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
 
4 Danza 8-1 10-1 102 JP: One of more impressive-looking horses here all week. Maybe Ark. Derby a preview of coming attractions.
  by Street Boss       MW: At face value, his surprising score OP was very good, but he did capitalize on an unobstructed rail trip.
  Owner: Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Joe Bravo
 
5 California Chrome 5-2 3-1 108 JP: Deserving favorite based on strong performances during four-race win streak. Can stalk if pace is hot.
  by Lucky Pulpit       MW: His romps in the San Felipe, SA Derby were both better than any pair of races anyone else here has.
  Owner: Steven Coburn and Perry Martin; Trainer: Art Sherman; Jockey: Victor Espinoza
 
6 Samraat 15-1 15-1 98 JP: Thoroughly admirable Wood performance, fighting between rivals, getting up for second in lone loss.
  by Noble Causeway       MW: In some respects, his Wood loss was better than his five prior wins. Have my doubts this is his distance.
  Owner: My Meadowview Farm; Trainer: Rick Violette Jr.; Jockey: Jose Ortiz
 
7 We Miss Artie 50-1 30-1 89t JP: Far superior on synthetic to dirt, and even though he usually works well on dirt, he didn't this week.
  by Artie Schiller       MW: Owner said that someone has to finish 20th, and if it's him, it's him. Wow. That's encouraging.
  Owner: Ken and Sarah Ramsey; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Javier Castellano
 
8 General a Rod 15-1 20-1 101 JP: Never really has run a bad race. Probably a tad inferior to the elite at this point, but he's consistent.
  by Roman Ruler       MW: Was unable to really stay 9 furlongs after tracking a slow pace. Not sure how he gets 10 furlongs here.
  Owner: Starlight Racing and Skychai Racing; Trainer: Mike Maker; Jockey: Joel Rosario
 
9 Vinceremos 30-1 50-1 90 JP: Willing to dismiss poor Blue Grass, his first on synthetic, but was previously a cut below best on dirt.
  by Pioneerof the Nile       MW: Was competitive on dirt in Tampa, but against moderate company, and that form has not held up.
  Owner: WinStar Farm and Twin Creeks Racing; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Joe Rocco Jr.
 
10 Wildcat Red 15-1 20-1 101 JP: Admire how he always battles, but after work this week, wonder if he's still sharp after gruelling preps.
  by D'wildcat       MW: Jury is still out on him. Set a slow pace when edged in Fla. Derby, rode speed bias in Fountain of Youth.
  Owner: Honors Stable Corp.; Trainer: Jose Garoffalo; Jockey: Luis Saez
 
SCR Hoppertunity SCR SCR 100 JP: Excellent chance to erase Apollo from the record books. Battle-tested in Rebel, super prep in SA Derby.
  by Any Given Saturday       MW: Was only prepping at SA, but was walloped by Cali Chrome, who wasn't all out, either; still a contender.
  Owner: Karl Watson, Mike Pegram, et al; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Mike Smith
 
12 Dance With Fate 20-1 15-1 97 JP: Best on turf, synthetic. Smartly managed to point for, and win, the Blue Grass, earning free lotto play.
  by Two Step Salsa       MW: Beyond surface questions, he prefers more time between starts than the three weeks he is getting.
  Owner: Sharon Alesia, Bran Jam Stable, Ciaglia Racing; Trainer: Peter Eurton; Jockey: Corey Nakatani
 
13 Chitu 20-1 30-1 102 JP: Won 3 of 4, only Candy Boy has finished in front of him, but think the distance will be beyond his range.
  by Henny Hughes       MW: He likes to be involved in the pace, and for him, being pace-involved here won't help him get the trip.
  Owner: Tanma Corporation; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Martin Garcia
 
14 Medal Count 20-1 20-1 94 JP: Give him a legit chance as longshot bomber in exotics. Had excuses in prior dirt races, worked well.
  by Dynaformer       MW: His dirt form is wildly open to interpretation, but he has improved, and his closing style is a good fit.
  Owner: Spendthrift Farm; Trainer: Dale Romans; Jockey: Robby Albarado
 
15 Tapiture 12-1 15-1 99 JP: Was high on him going into Ark. Derby, didn't fire after being grabbed early. Big chance if he rebounds.
  by Tapit       MW: Seeemed to resent early rating, but I wish there was a bigger excuse because he was surprisingly flat.
  Owner: Ron Winchell; Trainer: Steve Asmussen; Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
 
16 Intense Holiday 12-1 10-1 97 JP: Didn't have clean trip in La. Derby, wasn't going to catch loose leader. Will appreciate a contested pace.
  by Harlan's Holiday       MW: Works have earned raves. Might improve, but he'll have to. He hasn't run a race yet than can win this.
  Owner: Starlight Racing; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: John Velazquez
 
17 Commanding Curve 50-1 30-1 89 JP: Mixed feelings on him. Had a nightmarish trip in La. Derby, but didn't like his final workout this week.
  by Master Command       MW: His last effort was his best so far, but question if he can improve enough to get into the mix here.
  Owner: West Point Thoroughbreds; Trainer: Dallas Stewart; Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan
 
18 Candy Boy 15-1 15-1 96 JP: Think he was hindered by pace in SA Derby and laid too close. Prefer to see him sit and make one run.
  by Candy Ride       MW: In addition, he can improve second start off the planned layoff; just wish his Beyers were a tad higher.
  Owner: C R K Stable; Trainer; John Sadler; Jockey: Gary Stevens        
 
19 Ride On Curlin 15-1 20-1 98 JP: No match for Danza in Arkansas Derby, likely to be an underlay owing to having Calvin. Prefer others.
  by Curlin       MW: Merely picked up the pieces in last. Good point on the betting. The Derby always has crazy underlays.
  Owner: Daniel Dougherty; Trainer: William Gowan; Jockey: Calvin Borel
 
20 Wicked Strong 6-1 8-1 104 JP: Back in best form with Wood win, should get pace he needs to help his late run, and wants 10 furlongs.
  by Hard Spun       MW: Definitely one of the most dangerous stretch runners, but like all of them, he'll need some racing luck.
  Owner: Centennial Farms; Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens; Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
           
SCR Pablo Del Monte SCR SCR 91 JP: Would add some pace pressure. Ran best race of life on synthetic in Blue Grass. Ambitious assignment.
  by Giant's Causeway       MW: All of his best efforts have been on synthetic. Don't understand the desire to get him into this race.
  Owner: Mrs. John Magnier, Derrick Smith, and Michael Tabor; Trainer: Wesley Ward; Jockey: Jeffrey Sanchez