May 2nd, 2015 − Churchill Downs

Kentucky Derby

Horse/Sire Watchmaker
Odds
Last Race, Result,
and Beyer
Next Likely Race,
Track, and Date
Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker Comments
Dortmund 6-1 Robert B. Lewis, 2/7 San Felipe, 1 1/16 m JP: Initial plan after last win was to wait for SA Derby, but he's doing so well he's a go for this week.
by Big Brown   1st by a head, 104 Santa Anita, 3/7 MW: The Lewis, so strongly run, had to be draining; regression seems a possibility this time around.
Owner: Kaleem Shah; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Martin Garcia
 
American Pharoah 8-1 FrontRunner, 9/27 Rebel, 1 1/16 m JP: Champ can't afford any setbacks, but is coming around quickly with series of strong workouts.
by Pioneerof the Nile   1st by 3 1/4, 101 Oaklawn, 3/14 MW: He sports a very aggressive work pattern. It will be interesting to see how he stands up to it.
Owner: Zayat Stables; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Victor Espinoza
 
Upstart 10-1 Fountain of Youth, 2/21 Wood Memorial, 1 1/8 m JP: Was not trained as aggressively for last start, gave rivals weight on tiring track, and still "won."
by Flatter   1st by 2 3/4 (dq-pl. 2nd), 95 Aqueduct, 4/4 MW: All of that is why his Fountain of Youth was good, and we know he can run better than that.
Owner: Ralph Evans; Trainer: Rick Violette Jr.; Jockey: Jose Ortiz
 
Carpe Diem 12-1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, 11/1 Tampa Bay Derby, 1 1/16 m JP: Excited to see his 3yo debut this Saturday. Been working sharply, think he's an elite candidate.
by Giant's Causeway   2nd by 6 1/2, 93 Tampa Bay Downs, 3/7 MW: What is so intriguing about him is he's supposed to get better as he gets older, more distance.
Owner: WinStar Farm & Stonestreet Stable; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: John Velazquez
 
Khozan 12-1 GP Allowance, 2/22 Florida Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Beyer Figure says he took step back in second start, but I can't fault anything he's done so far.
by Distorted Humor   1st by 12 3/4, 90 Gulfstream, 3/28 MW: Even if that allowance field he crushed was pitiful, and it was, he remains an exciting figure.
Owner: Al Shaqab Racing; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Javier Castellano
 
Texas Red 12-1 San Vicente, 2/1 Santa Anita Derby, 4/4, JP: Setback at crucial time, plus having return to track pushed back, make him very shaky with me.
by Afleet Alex   2nd by a neck, 91 or Arkansas Derby, 4/11 MW: Agree, and it's a shame, because he really looked like one of the ones going into this year.
Owner: Brehm, Desormeaux, Detmar & Michaels; Trainer: Keith Desormeaux; Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
 
Far From Over 15-1 Withers, 2/7 Wood Memorial, 1 1/8 m JP: Major props for overcoming a disastrous start to rally and win a stakes in only second outing.
by Blame   1st by 1 3/4, 96 Aqueduct, 4/4 MW: Likely had a bunch ranked ahead of him in Pletcher barn before Withers, but things do change.
Owner: Black Rock Thoroughbreds, Covello & Madaket St.; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Manuel Franco
 
Firing Line 15-1 Robert B. Lewis, 2/7 Sunland Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Two heartbreaking losses in a row vs. Dortmund; wonder if 1 1/16 miles is the limit of his range.
by Line of David   2nd by a head, 104 Sunland Park, 3/22 MW: May have been better than Dortmund at Los Al, but was not in the Lewis; still a big contender.
Owner: Arnold Zetcher; Trainer: Simon Callaghan; Jockey: Gary Stevens
 
Daredevil 20-1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, 11/1 Swale, 7 f JP: Had first start of the year postponed by freaky storm; remain skeptical over two-turn ability.
by More Than Ready   11th by 26 1/4, 57 Gulfstream, 3/7 MW: Had impossible trip in one route try. Not sure why he wouldn't get at least a middle distance.
Owner: Let's Go Stable, WinStar Farm, China Horse Club; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Javier Castellano
 
Frosted 20-1 Fountain of Youth, 2/21 Florida Derby, 3/28, JP: Don't know what to make of last race. Went from a sure winner to stopping like engine blew.
by Tapit   4th by 4 3/4, 87 or Wood Mem., or Blue Grass, 4/4 MW: Even if a legit excuse surfaces, horses who do what he did in Ftn of Youth often don't pan out.
Owner: Godolphin Racing; Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin; Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
 
International Star 20-1 Risen Star, 2/21 Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Very cool horse who simply has no fear. Came through tight opening with quick acceleration.
by Fusaichi Pegasus   1st by 1, 93 Fair Grounds, 3/28 MW: Better than I first gave him credit for, but I still don't think he's an elite Derby contender.
Owner: Ken & Sarah Ramsey; Trainer: Mike Maker; Jockey: Miguel Mena
 
Itsaknockout 20-1 Fountain of Youth, 2/21 Florida Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Was fortunate to get put up in Fountain of Youth and remain unbeaten. Will face Khozan next.
by Lemon Drop Kid   2nd by 2 3/4 (pl. 1st), 90 Gulfstream, 3/28 MW: Upstart didn't run his best race, and was still better than him; not feeling it now with this one.
Owner: Starlight Racing; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Luis Saez
 
Ocean Knight 20-1 Sam F. Davis, 1/31 Tampa Bay Derby, 1 1/16 m JP: To go from sprint on inner at Aqu to two-turn stakes, get parked wide, and still win, is impressive.
by Curlin   1st by a neck, 93 Tampa Bay Downs, 3/7 MW: Showed seasoning beyond his actual experience in Tampa and will only get better; intriguing.
Owner: Stonestreet Stables; Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin; Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
 
Ocho Ocho Ocho 20-1 Delta Downs Jackpot, 11/22 San Felipe, 1 1/16 m JP: In 3yo debut, he'll put his unbeaten record on line against unbeaten Dortmund. Great match.
by Street Sense   1st by a nose, 90 Santa Anita, 3/7 MW: Unless he's much improved, if Dortmund doesn't bounce off the Lewis, then it's no match.
Owner: DP Racing; Trainer: James Cassidy; Jockey: Mike Smith
 
El Kabeir 30-1 Withers, 2/7 Gotham, 1 1/16 m JP: Didn't run badly in the Withers, but thought he laid over that field. His next start will be pivotal.
by Scat Daddy   2nd by 1 3/4, 93 Aqueduct, 3/7 MW: Wasn't given the best of trips in the Withers, but the truth is, the winner was much the best.
Owner: Zayat Stables; Trainer; John Terranova II; Jockey: C.C. Lopez
 
Far Right 30-1 Southwest, 2/22 Arkansas Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: He's the king of Oaklawn right now with consecutive stakes wins; waters get deeper next time.
by Notional   1st by 3/4, 91 Oaklawn, 4/11 MW: Might be the current king of Oaklawn, but he certainly hasn't beaten any 3-year-old royalty.
Owner: Robert LaPenta & Harry Rosenblum; Trainer: Ron Moquett; Jockey: Mike Smith
 
Imperia 30-1 Risen Star, 2/21 Spiral, 1 1/8 m JP: Was disappointed with his comeback race. Probably needed it, but never looked like a threat.
by Medaglia d'Oro   5th by 7 1/2, 80 Turfway, 3/21 MW: Can forgive a dud first time off layoff, but that Kentucky Jockey Club form is in question now.
Owner: Godolphin Racing; Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin; Jockey: Mike Smith
 
Keen Ice 30-1 Risen Star, 2/21 Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Best thing that happened to him was leaving GP, racing at FG. Long-winded type is improving.
by Curlin   3rd by 2 3/4, 88 Fair Grounds, 3/28 MW: He must improve, and by quite a bit, because he hasn't run a race yet that makes him a threat.
Owner: Donegal Racing; Trainer: Dale Romans; Jockey: James Graham
 
Prospect Park 30-1 SA Allowance, 1/30 San Felipe, 1 1/16 m JP: Late developer adds considerable depth to So Cal 3yo crop; getting good at just the right time.
by Tapit   1st by 5 1/4, 93 Santa Anita, 3/7 MW: He is improving, but several of those in front of him on the depth chart will also improve too.
Owner: Pam & Martin Wygod; Trainer: Clifford Sise Jr.; Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
 
War Story 30-1 Risen Star, 2/21 Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 m JP: Thought he ran quite well to rally for second in Risen Star after journey to/from OP that week.
by Northern Afleet   2nd by 1, 91 Fair Grounds, 3/28 MW: Seriously, did he walk from New Orleans to Hot Springs, because that would be truly tough.
Owner: Christopher Dunn & Looch Racing; Trainer: Tom Amoss; Jockey: Kent Desomeaux