Weekend GamePlan for Saturday, April 24, 2021: Picks for San Francisco Mile, Elusive Quality, Dahlia

First Saturday in May – Kentucky Derby, of course. Last Saturday in April – multi-stakes cards at Golden Gate and Pimlico, don’t you know? We’ll make stops at both those venues and look at the opening Saturday feature of the 2021 Belmont spring-summer meeting.

San Francisco Mile

He’s never won a graded stakes race and only raced in one of them, but Whisper Not looks like the favorite Saturday in the Golden Gate feature. This 4-year-old English import comes off a fast race and appears quite progressive, but lands in exactly the wrong spot to express his ability. Front-running types pack the San Francisco Mile, and it’s extremely difficult to imagine this race not unfolding at a strong to suicidal pace.

:: Bet horse racing on DRF Bets. Double Your First Deposit Up to $250. Join Now.

Whisper Not’s connections can see this as well as anyone, but what will they do? The colt somewhat abides his rider taking a hold, but absolutely seems like a horse who’d prefer to bowl along on the lead, even if it means setting a fast pace. I’m just not sure he’s fast enough to go clear and get any sort of breather here.

I’ll take the mare Keeper Ofthe Stars to beat males over a course where she’s won all three of her starts. We know Keeper Ofthe Stars has a peak high enough to win this race; she showed that twice last season upsetting Grade 1-class Jolie Olimpica in the Buena Vista and validating that performance winning the Grade 1 Gamely.

I know not what befell Keeper Ofthe Stars thereafter, only that she lost her form and required a long break. She came off an eight-month layoff April 3 and won a 1 1/16-mile allowance race on the turf at Golden Gate. I like her comeback race for a couple reasons. First, she surely needed the start and likely got something out of the race, getting strong encouragement through the final furlong. Second, she only narrowly beat a soft field while earning a modest Beyer Speed Figure, which figures to put off a significant segment of bettors. But I’d view her performance strictly as a prep for this start, and Keeper Ofthe Stars is a mare who’d much rather stalk a solid pace than lead on a slow one. She gets a five-pound sex allowance and ought to get a great setup at a fair price – a San Francisco treat.

Elusive Quality Stakes

I looked at this race before David Aragona’s astute morning line had been added to the past performances, and it was disappointing to see Front Run the Fed tabbed the 2-1 morning-line favorite. I’ll be hoping for something a little higher than that, with Value Proposition perhaps going slightly lower than the 4-1 listed price. Chad Brown trains both horses (as well as Seismic Wave), and Irad Ortiz Jr., regarded as Brown’s No. 1 by many bettors, is named on Value Proposition, who was the 5-2 favorite last July in the Grade 3 Poker. I regard Value Proposition’s 100 Beyer from his June 2020 allowance race as an outlier and don’t see a lot in his form to merit support.

Casa Creed has been facing meaningfully tougher rivals and might not mind the turn back in trip to seven furlongs. Both he and Therapist, proven capable over this course and distance, are dangerous, but Front Run the Fed is getting first run from a stalking-pressing position, and he is much more a true sprinter than the other leading lights in the Elusive Quality.

:: DRF's Kenucky Derby Headquarters: Contenders, latest news, past performances, analysis, and more

He hasn’t raced since getting beat by 2 1/2 lengths in the BC Turf Sprint, which at 5 1/2 furlongs was too short for him. Seven-eighths at Belmont, however, looks ideal.

Dahlia Stakes

Crystal Cliffs figures to be favored in this turf route, but she makes her first start since June and might be tasked with running down a loose leader in Vigilantes Way. Vigilantes Way hasn’t raced since Jan. 23, but that still gives her a considerable recency edge on the favorite, and Vigilantes Way has kept to a steady work pattern (accounting for her ship north) while posting a very quick Belmont dirt drill in her final prep for this. She has a race over the course – when the Pimlico course was boggy, sapping her pace and tamping down her performance level – and, on paper, nothing stands between this filly and a clear, easy lead.