Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Test, Saratoga Derby, California Dreamin'
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Tough beats last weekend in the Jim Dandy and the San Diego. Where did Senor Buscador come from?
Not getting beat this weekend – Cody’s Wish in the Whitney. You’re not supposed to take a price this short on a horse trying something new (nine furlongs, in this case), but Cody’s Wish is relaxed and very fast. He might turn out to be even better at 1 1/8 miles than a mile. Zandon got a sniff, but didn’t make the cut, nor did any of the upset candidates in the Troy, where Caravel might finally take a step back after taking pace pressure.
Test
It’s not that Pretty Mischievous can’t cut back to this seven-furlong distance with success, but I doubt she’s as good at an extended sprint as she is in a two-turn route, and post 1 looks like a very tough spot. She’ll take plenty of betting, as will Maple Leaf Mel.
I was excited about the way the horse I liked, Dazzling Blue, ran in the Victory Ride, and she didn’t come close to catching Maple Leaf Mel. Five for five to start her career, Maple Leaf Mel has gotten faster in all three of her 2023 starts – which means regression looms. She just hit a major peak last time, faces a serious pace rival in Munnys Gold, and is trying to stretch her speed out to seven furlongs. All credit if she can pull it off.
Munnys Gold is drawn inside Maple Leaf Mel, which is no bueno. I get that 1 1/16 miles last time probably just was too far for the filly, but even under a more favorable pace scenario, I couldn’t trust her.
Make no mistake – I’m not just getting to Dorth Vader by eliminating others. There is a lot to like about the filly in her own right.
While she’s more than three times the price of Pretty Mischievous on the morning line, Dorth Vader ran the better race between the two when beaten a head in the Acorn. Trapped down at the fence after breaking from post 1, she took on and passed Munnys Gold before Pretty Mischievous came with her outside swoop. Dorth Vader responded gallantly and was getting to the winner at the wire.
The cutback to seven furlongs is better for Dorth Vader than Pretty Mischievous, and her busy racing schedule seems to have provided a strong foundation rather than wearing the filly down. I really liked the workout video from July 13, and she came back with an even faster drill July 23. Good trip at a good price.
Saratoga Derby
Far Bridge is half the price of Webslinger on the morning line, but I can’t see there’s anything between the two of them. If anything, Webslinger holds an edge, since he lost all the ground both in the American Turf and last out in the Belmont Derby, with Far Bridge getting an inside trip both times.
The ground loss at Belmont made all the difference in the outcome, and Webslinger, as a slightly handier model, should better make the adjustment from Belmont to Saratoga. Neither colt is going to have any real pace at which to run, and if Program Trading slips loose on an easy lead, he could wire this field. I wonder if he really wants to run this far, however.
Lope de Vega is more a middle-distance sire, and while Program Trading’s dam got her highest rating at 10 furlongs, she’s by sprint-mile influence Oasis Dream, and her only other horse to race wanted no more than one mile.
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California Dreamin’
This race has great fall-apart potential with so much pace signed on that they almost have to go at an imprudent clip. That makes likely favorite Kings River Knight vulnerable and means we need the right closer.
Indian Peak got a long look, but he’s drawn wide and might be diminished from his previous Del Mar best. So might Carmelita’s Man, but at the expected price, I’ll guess that’s not the case.
Carmelita’s Man does the May at Santa Anita until mid-summer at Del Mar layoff annually. In 2021, he was a solid second in his first Del Mar start, and last summer he won this very race in his comeback run. His work pattern suggests connections have done everything they wanted with the gelding, and he should get a great setup at double-digit odds.
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