Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Jim Dandy, San Diego, Colleen
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Another one of those midsummer Saturdays with multiple graded stakes at Saratoga and Del Mar supported by a bevy of appealing races at lesser venues. It’s hot almost all over the country – hopefully in this space, too.
Jim Dandy
I still like Disarm to win the Travers Stakes but can’t quite get to him in the Jim Dandy. The colt has progressed steadily through his last several starts, and with the Travers as his major goal, the expectation is for a form plateau here before Disarm hits another level next month at his preferred 1 1/4-mile trip.
Todd Pletcher has the favorite in Forte, while Brad Cox controls the race with three other entrants – a speed horse in Saudi Crown, a stalker in Hit Show, and a closer in Angel of Empire.
Forte can go ahead and beat me – I can live with that. The jury, believe it or not, is still out on a colt who was champion 2-year-old and Derby favorite until he was scratched the day of the race.
His Florida Derby remains enigmatic: On the surface, Mage ran the better race finishing second to Forte, but Forte’s final 20 yards hinted at a colt who had been fooling around when he lost momentum on the far turn. Mage, of course, came back to win the Kentucky Derby, which flattered Forte.
The 1 1/2-mile Belmont off a 10-week layoff was a big ask. Forte ran fine. Tapit Trice, a head behind him, did not flatter Forte last weekend in the Haskell. Already leaning against Forte, he’s a play against for me with the blinkers-on move. Forte long had been described as and appeared to be a consummate pro – now he needs an equipment change to keep him focused?
Angel of Empire and Hit Show – we know who they are. Saudi Crown is the horse with an unknown ceiling. It could be very, very high. This colt has impressed from the start, and even in his second start “bounce” race, he won comfortably.
Saudi Crown’s Dwyer was remarkable. Even after setting a breakneck pace, he still had plenty of fight through the final quarter-mile facing a more seasoned, sharp rival, Fort Bragg, who had gotten a better trip.
Did that monster effort take something out of Saudi Crown? Not from the appearance of workout video from July 15 and July 22. The first of those drills was solo – relaxed with a good finish. The second came in company with the very good work horse Everso Mischievous. Saudi Crown started off a few lengths behind, drew even with a few powerful strides at the quarter pole, after which the rider almost was coming out of the saddle trying to hold his mount alongside his mate.
Obviously the lone speed in the Jim Dandy, Saudi Crown has the deep pedigree to carry that speed nine furlongs and win this Jim Dandy.
San Diego
What a modest assemblage of older dirt-route runners in this Pacific Classic prep. It’s unfortunate there are so few true contenders, because that’s going to make the pick, Slow Down Andy, a shorter price than he could have been.
Defunded will clearly be heavily favored. Very nice horse, currently overrated. The presence of breakneck pace player Brickyard Ride could take Defunded out of his comfort zone.
Slow Down Andy quietly was on the upswing when a troubled third behind Defunded in the Awesome Again last fall, and it could be argued that Slow Down Andy’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile was as strong a performance as anything Defunded ever has put forth. Late to make his 2023 debut, Slow Down Andy had to need the Met Mile for fitness, and after getting stuck down at the rail disputing a strong pace, he had every right to throw in the towel.
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He’s set for a far stronger showing in the San Diego and gets three pounds from Defunded as an added bonus.
Colleen
I’m a sucker for 2-year-old turf races, and in the Colleen, a filly named Moretastic has longshot potential.
She’s Fire is the one to beat here, but the turnback in distance from six furlongs to five while moving from Belmont to Monmouth doesn’t thrill me.
Moretastic didn’t exactly race under bright lights last out – she cleared the maiden ranks at Belterra Park in Ohio. But after leading early and allowing a couple of chasers to draw abreast at the quarter pole, the filly showed a very nice turn of foot to burst clear and win easily. There’s more in the tank, and Moretastic ought to be willing to sit just behind the pace.
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