Weekend GamePlan for July 30, 2022: Picks for San Diego, Jim Dandy, Bing Crosby

Laurel Park hosts a multiple-stakes card, and Woodbine has the Niagara, but the focus this last Saturday in July are boutique meets at Saratoga and Del Mar.

If the racing secretary really wanted to make things interesting in the Vanderbilt Handicap, co-featured at Saratoga, he’d have packed more weight on Jackie’s Warrior. As it is, six pounds isn’t nearly enough for a horse like the sharp Ny Traffic.

Bonus mini-picks this Saturday: Who’s the Star (44.76 final half-mile in this turf debut last out) to win the Niagara, A Little Bit of That to wire the Miss Disco at Laurel, and Alottahope to get up in the Star de Naskra there.

San Diego Handicap

The San Diego easily is the most interesting stakes race on Saturday, and I think there’s value to be extracted.

Country Grammer is the 125-pound highweight, and while I respect his accomplishments and think he’ll give Flightline all he wants in the Pacific Classic, this race clearly is shorter than he prefers and a stepping-stone to the rest of Country Grammer’s campaign.

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I believe that will be a widespread viewpoint, at least among more serious bettors, and that Country Grammer will be bet accordingly. Still, he’s taking some money and his presence raises the win odds on better-meant runners.

Country Grammer’s Bob Baffert-trained stablemate Defunded merits a long look. He’s an improved animal at age 4 and hung in gamely going 1 1/4 miles in the Gold Cup after setting a strong pace and putting away Stilleto Boy. Defunded’s recent works (all solo drills) are very encouraging, and he could shake loose on the lead.

Mandaloun won’t be far off the pace, and I thought initially he’d be my fair-priced selection. I think it’s easy to toss his Saudi Cup, where Mandaloun didn’t run a step, and in his first race back in the States, Mandaloun pulled a three-wide trip both turns chasing the best dirt-route horse in the country, Olympiad.

I think the price comes up fair in the San Diego but couldn’t quite get past how gassed Mandaloun looked through the final Stephen Foster furlong, something one doesn’t typically see from Brad Cox-trained horses, even those back from a layoff.

Tripoli could be seriously overlooked, and I’ll tab him to go one place better than he did in the 2021 San Diego and win this. Tripoli clearly relishes the Del Mar surface, and trainer John Sadler has aimed his horse at the San Diego and Pacific Classic since Tripoli returned from an extended absence. Since Sadler also trains Flightline, I’d guess that he has geared Tripoli to peak in this start following a turf-route comeback run that was nothing more than a prep.

Jim Dandy

Count me in the camp that believes Epicenter is an underappreciated and underrated 3-year-old. I don’t want to hear about how he got a setup in the Derby because Epicenter moved early into that furious pace and was the only horse anywhere near the lead at the half-mile pole who had any final say. He might have been a touch flat in the Preakness but absolutely was compromised by his trip.

Trouble here is that Chad Brown, as often is the case these days, holds all the cards in the Jim Dandy. Epicenter is drawn inside, and his camp won’t want to let Early Voting break in front and gallop on an easy lead. But when Epicenter leaves the gate running this time, Early Voting can sit outside and badger him the whole trip.

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While those two volley up front, Zandon should enjoy a favorable trip a few lengths behind the leaders. Zandon was making his first start of the season when he compromised his chances with a leaping start in the Risen Star, where Epicenter handled him comfortably, and I think there’s less between those two than the bare margin in that race. A leggy, light-framed colt, Zandon might have felt the grind of the spring season in the final stages of what was a strong Derby showing, and I’d expect him to fire a big shot running fresh at nine furlongs.

Bing Crosby

Shaaz has been toying with Country Grammer in recent team workouts, and I love the confidence I’ve seen from Shaaz, who has been placed along the fence inside his Dubai World Cup-winning mate in those drills. I thought after his brilliant maiden win that Shaaz would stretch out, but that hasn’t really happened for the late-starting colt. In fact, the guess is that the cut back to six furlongs here, the shortest race Shaaz has tried, is going to bring out the best in this beast.