Weekend GamePlan for Feb. 13, 2021: Picks for Risen Star, Santa Monica

Seems like when I was growing up, winter hit in December and January. You made February and, sure, still winter, but the month was more a harbinger of spring. Recently, February has sat at winter’s heart, and these United States are falling under an icy grip right now. Oaklawn canceled three days of racing and the freeze eventually will drop as far south as the Gulf of Mexico. Before the real cold comes to New Orleans, Fair Grounds, which hosts the biggest and best racing this weekend, is in for rain. It fell heavily enough Thursday to cancel racing, though Saturday’s forecast looks considerably better.

Okay, let’s leave weather and climate behind and get to the races.

Risen Star

Even with Keepmeinmind an expected scratch, this is a really interesting race, one with depth.

Several horses come out of the Lecomte, Fair Grounds’ first 3-year-old dirt-route stakes. That Jan. 16 card was a tricky one. Fractions and final times were confusingly slow, and despite plodding paces in the Louisiana Stakes and the Silverbulletday, pacesetters could not find the winner’s circle. The top three in the Lecomte, however – Midnight Bourbon, Proxy, and Mandaloun – were the top three all the way around the oval.

Mandaloun lost the most ground among that trio and also was ceding experience to the two in front of him while making his first stakes and route start, and while neither I nor the colt’s connections are sure how much blinkers will help, I like him best of those three. That’s not a strong opinion, as Midnight Bourbon shows signs of being a legitimately improved 3-year-old, appeared to tire very late in the Lecomte, and stands a decent chance of moving forward.

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The Lecomte fourth, Santa Cruiser, could come in for at least a little support since he was pinched back and fell too far off the pace before making some progress in the final three furlongs, but I think he lacks sufficient improvement potential to rate a serious win chance.

O Besos deserves to have his supporters, and I am not especially against him. Trainer Greg Foley has brought this colt along patiently and only now, in his fourth start, does he get a shot at a two-turn race. Closing sprinters as often as not fail as route horses, but O Besos has a route-looking body type and his dam, by the long-winded Soto, was a winner over 1 1/8 miles, albeit in an $18,000 starter-allowance.

O Besos is set to run well, but I’ll go with an even faster deep closer, Senor Buscador.

Trainer Todd Fincher had never started a horse at Remington Park before late last year, and it seems like he had a small string there to get this strapping colt to the Springboard Mile. Senor Buscador whipped home in a six-furlong maiden race, a career debut that turned out to actually be a final prep for the Springboard, where Senor Buscador made a more sustained run than you’ll see from a 2-year-old. His speed figure is legit, and I really think this colt will stay nine furlongs. The one concern for me is racing without Lasix for the first time, but the hope is his price balances that risk.

Santa Monica

I tried Hard Not to Love last out in the La Canada, where she ran creditably after contesting a taxing pace, and will go back to her on the cutback to seven furlongs here. Hard Not to Love won the 2020 Santa Monica by open lengths, and while she is capable in two-turn races, seven furlongs around one turn looks like her sweet spot. She’ll have pace in front of her with Merneith likely on a speed mission from the rail this time, and Hard Not to Love ought to offer a fair price.

Wide Country

Seeing Salt Plage’s form from Parx Racing put me in mind of Max Player, who came off two Parx races for trainer Linda Rice to win the 2020 Withers. Street Lute got wobbly at seven furlongs two starts back and can’t keep up this form forever (can she?), and a duel looms with the race’s other short price, Little Huntress. Impressive how Salt Plage handled some real kickback last out, and she could not have won that allowance race any more easily. The extra furlong only helps, and the hope is her price rises above the morning-line odds.