Weekend GamePlan for Aug. 8, 2020: Picks for Travers, Ballerina, Waya
All eyes on Saratoga this Saturday. Sure, we’d love to see some larger, more competitive fields on the Runhappy Travers card, but it’s also worth keeping in mind that only a couple months ago, there was no racing at all in New York.
Travers
I tried to beat Tiz the Law with Toledo in the Holy Bull, with Ete Indien in the Florida Derby, and with Tap It to Win in the Belmont – a Triple Crown of personal futility. Having missed the bar mitzvah, the engagement party, and the wedding, I’m sure not inviting myself to the funeral. Not that I strongly oppose Tiz the Law in the Travers – not at all. He continues to show ferocious energy in training, and even a posted video of a recent daily gallop showed the colt roaring through the latter portion of what was intended mainly as mundane exercise.
Tiz the Law enters the Travers, clearly and simply, the leading horse of his generation, and his first trip over 1 1/4 miles isn’t going to get him beat. To me, he stands out against every opponent save, possibly, one.
From the Jim Dandy, Caracaro ran the better race in defeat than Country Grammer did in victory, but considering how hard he worked for the second-place finish in a long-layoff comeback, Caracaro is susceptible to regression Saturday. Country Grammer, who got a sweet run up the rail last time, could be blooming in mid-summer, but it’s hard for me to see him taking the second step forward required to defeat Tiz the Law. While Max Player has developed admirably, rounding out the trifecta looks like a best-case scenario, and in that regard, I’d rather have longer-priced South Bend clunking along for third.
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Shivaree, who appears to have no chance, might be all that stands between Uncle Chuck – the pick to win – and a clear lead, and even if Shivaree can run with Uncle Chuck for a half-mile, I doubt he’ll make it much farther. Uncle Chuck is the obvious alternative to Tiz the Law and there’s concern he’ll be bet below his 5-2 morning-line odds. The talent emanating from a blowout maiden win and a romp over subsequent Shared Belief winner Thousand Words at Los Alamitos burns bright, and there may be plenty more to come.
Tiz the Law is the battle-hardened ace, but he’ll be taking roughly 1 1/2 strides to a single stride from Uncle Chuck, whose legs seem to reach from Saratoga Springs to Albany when he fully extends. Bob Baffert has been giving him the Bob Baffert treatment in the mornings, working Uncle Chuck hard, working him long, and the farther this colt gallops out in his breezes, the better he goes. His most recent work might’ve been his most professional yet.
There’s one established star going into the Travers; there could be a second coming out of it.
Ballerina
My main opinion regarding the Ballerina is less about favoring a single horse and more to do with siding against all the shorter-priced entrants.
Bellafina, until she produces a top performance outside SoCal, is a toss when she hits the road. Serengeti Empress has been working well for this but comes into the race in poor form with only one win in her last eight races. She drew the rail and will have to be used from the start. I’ll be very surprised if Come Dancing comes close to her best 2019 level.
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Pink Sands is plausible but is everybody’s “lone closer” in the Ballerina and has done all her best work at Gulfstream. While she’s usable, I’ll try Letruska, who risks getting caught up in a hot pace, but does have a favorable outside draw to stalk and pounce.
We don’t know if Letruska can rate behind horses and pass, but we don’t know that she can’t. She flopped on turf – entirely excusable – in December and simply ran back too quickly after a good win when defeated in April at Oaklawn. Her other nine starts ended in victory, and a filly she dominated twice this year, Nonna Madeline, won a restricted stakes this week at Saratoga. Letruska worked well Aug. 1 in her local tune-up and could be overlooked in the betting.
Waya
Mrs. Sippy is the best horse in this race but has been scratched twice this summer from intended starts (her trainer at one point mentioned her tying up, which comes from an electrolyte imbalance) and her price will land her on the wrong side of the risk-reward ratio.
Fools Gold won this race in 2019 and can win it again racing on or just off a crawling tempo. She chased Mean Mary in the New York Stakes, her lone start this season, and that ended poorly, but she’s since gotten in plenty of work and should be capable of a considerable forward move.