Watchmaker: How I'd play the Breeders' Cup Ultra Pick Six
ARCADIA, Calif. – I subscribe to the Steve Crist philosophy regarding the pick six, which is you either bet a lot or bet small, because if you bet in the middle, over time you’re just going to get swallowed up by bigger pick six players who have the ability to purchase greater coverage.
That said, lots of luck employing this philosophy in Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Ultra Pick Six. It goes without saying that the races in this sequence are very deep and competitive. So unless you have one of those days when you can sense what the universe is going to do before it does it, really the only logical way to approach this pick six is to bet a lot, or to bet even more than a lot.
I’m not going to sit here and give out a $3,000 play that might give you a fighting chance. Might. I’m not going to make a play like that, especially in a sequence that can go wrong at any point.
Instead, I’ll offer three different plays. Two will be the sort of middling-expensive pick six plays that, quite frankly, you’re supposed to avoid. One of those will be a main/backup sort of play where you can pick up a couple of extra horses thanks to the zig-zag nature of such plays, and the other will be a straight up caveman play where you lose a couple of horses for greater protection. The third play will be a more budget-conscious caveman play.
I’m not getting into the handicapping aspects of the races and the horses involved. My analyses and odds and comments on all horses for all Breeders’ Cup races, can be found in print editions and online.
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Here’s the main/backup play:
Race 7 (Turf Sprint): 8, 9, 10/1, 13, 14
Race 8 (Juvenile): 5, 10
Race 9 (Turf): 4, 9/10, 12
Race 10 (F-M Sprint): 2, 3
Race 11 (Mile): 3, 9/2, 8
Race 12 (Classic): 4
Aside from the positively inscrutable Turf Sprint in the first leg, it’s not a “spready” play. Yet even so, it still requires four tickets at $96 each, for a total play of $384.
I’d single California Chrome in the Classic, and lean heavily on Haveyougoneaway and Tara’s Tango in the F-M Sprint, and on Classic Empire and Not This Time in the Juvenile. Also, I am, of course, using as mains my two longshot top picks in the sequence – Money Multiplier in the Turf and Sceptre in the Mile – which means by necessity I’m relegating some very good horses who might easily win those races to backup status.
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Here’s the first and pricier of the two caveman tickets:
Race 7 (Turf Sprint): 8, 9, 10, 13, 14
Race 8 (Juvenile): 5, 10
Race 9 (Turf): 4, 9, 12
Race 10 (F-M Sprint): 2, 3
Race 11 (Mile): 3, 8, 9
Race 12 (Classic): 4
Three backup horses who were listed in the first play are gone from this ticket. On the other hand, you do gain the sense of security that comes without having to worry about getting all your main horses home after one of your backups wins. But as thin as this ticket seems, it still costs $360.
Finally, here is that relatively inexpensive pick six ticket, which I hesitate to offer because it splits some wood, and if you’ve been betting horses for longer than two minutes, you know that never turns out well. But here it is, anyway:
Race 7 (Turf Sprint): 8, 9, 10, 13, 14
Race 8 (Juvenile): 5, 10
Race 9 (Turf): 4, 9
Race 10 (F-M Sprint): 2, 3
Race 11 (Mile): 3, 9
Race 12 (Classic): 4
I dropped only two horses off the more expensive caveman ticket, and yet it lowered the cost of this play to $160. And in the context of this Breeders’ Cup Ultra Pick Six, $160 might actually classify as an inexpensive play.