Watchmaker: Bellafina tops final Oaks Watch for 2019
Two months ago in this space, as a tiny remedy to the unfortunate tradition of the Kentucky Oaks annually being overshadowed by the behemoth that is the Kentucky Derby, yours truly offered a Kentucky Derby-style Oaks Watch.
At the time, I promised that if a future weekend came up light from a stakes standpoint, I’d follow up with another Oaks Watch. Well, the Saturday before the Kentucky Derby (and the Kentucky Oaks, for that matter) was a quiet one from in terms of major stakes action, so this is an ideal time to offer an updated Oaks Watch.
Before I do, it should be noted how much things have changed on the Oaks front over the last two months. This is no surprise, of course, because if you miss a single day in this game, you might easily miss a lot. Forget about two months.
Nevertheless, it’s a bit stunning that such very talented fillies as Chasing Yesterday, Enaya Alrabb, and Feedback – who all seemed like upper-level Oaks prospects two months ago – are now, for one reason or another, nowhere to be found on the Kentucky Oaks radar.
:: DRF Clocker Reports for Derby/Oaks Day
Still, it goes without saying that the biggest development in the Oaks over the last two months was that a new, clear favorite emerged.
As Jaywalk, last year’s champion 2-year-old filly and the old clear Oaks favorite, was losing her first two starts this year without much resistance, most recently despite riding the crest of a speed-favoring track, Bellafina just kept rolling right along. She won stakes in her first three starts this year, the most recent being an easy romp in the Santa Anita Oaks, and is now the clear (and formidable) Oaks favorite.
In fact, it’s possible that Jaywalk won’t even be the second betting favorite in the Oaks. My odds on all 14 fillies currently listed by Churchill Downs as Kentucky Oaks starters, as well as the two currently on the wrong side of the Oaks points line hoping to get it, follows.
Here’s the final Oaks Watch for 2019:
| HORSE/SIRE | WATCH ODDS |
LAST RACE/FINISH/ BEYER FIGURE |
COMMENT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bellafina | 2-1 | Santa Anita Oaks, 4/6 | MW: Her only dull effort, against Jaywalk in the Breeders' Cup, looks like an aberration. A clear favorite. |
| by Quality Road | 1st by 5 1/4, 89 | ||
| Restless Rider | 5-1 | Ashland, 4/6 | MW: To narrowly miss in the Ashland off layoff and going against a speed-favoring track was impressive. |
| by Distorted Humor | 2nd by a neck, 88 | ||
| Jaywalk | 6-1 | Ashland, 4/6 | MW: Didn't put up much of a fight weakening in both starts this year, seems well off championship form. |
| by Cross Traffic | 3rd by 2, 85 | ||
| Champagne Anyone | 10-1 | Gulfstream Park Oaks, 3/30 | MW: Was previously beaten by a few of these, but improved in blinkers winning the GP Oaks, intriguing. |
| by Street Sense | 1st by 1/2, 90 | ||
| Out for a Spin | 12-1 | Ashland, 4/6 | MW: Sprung a 52-1 surprise in the Ashland while racing with the grain of the track. Let's see that again. |
| by Hard Spun | 1st by a neck, 88 | ||
| Serengeti Empress | 12-1 | Fair Grounds Oaks, 3/23 | MW: Bled in the Fair Grounds Oaks, so that's a throw out. Ran big winning Rachel Alexandra two back. |
| by Alternation | 7th by 50 1/4, 7 | ||
| Lady Apple | 15-1 | Fantasy, 4/12 | MW: Needs another step forward speed figure-wise, but has won three straight, has upset potential. |
| by Curlin | 1st by 1, 85 | ||
| Motion Emotion | 15-1 | Fantasy, 4/12 | MW: Couldn't hold off Lady Apple, Chocolate Kisses, in last two and the water gets a lot deeper here. |
| by Take Charge Indy | 2nd by 1, 83 | ||
| Street Band | 15-1 | Fair Grounds Oaks, 3/23 | MW: Was the one who capitalized when Serengeti Empress bled in the FG Oaks. Not buying just yet. |
| by Istan | 1st by 3 3/4, 85 | ||
| Jeltrin | 20-1 | Davona Dale, 3/2 | MW: Must show her 51-1 shocker in the Davona Dale was no fluke. This will be her two turn debut. |
| by Tapizar | 1st by a head, 91 | ||
| Chocolate Kisses | 30-1 | Ashland, 4/6 | MW: Had a great set up when she won the Honeybee two starts back and yet still didn't run that fast. |
| by Candy Ride | 6th by 10 1/4, 72 | ||
| Flor de La Mar | 30-1 | Santa Anita Oaks, 4/6 | MW: Someone had to finish a distant second to Bellafina in the Santa Anita Oaks and she was the one. |
| by Tiznow | 2nd by 5 1/4, 81 | ||
| Liora | 30-1 | Fair Grounds Oaks, 3/23 | MW: Comes off seconds in the FG Oaks and Rachel Alexandra, but was soundly beaten in both races. |
| by Candy Ride | 2nd by 3 3/4, 78 | ||
| Positive Spirit | 30-1 | Gazelle, 4/6 | MW: Couldn't make a very easy early lead in the slowly run Gazelle stand up. Must do better than that. |
| by Pioneerof the Nile | 2nd by 1 3/4, 79 | ||
| Also Eligible: | |||
| Cookie Dough | 30-1 | Gulfstream Park Oaks, 3/30 | MW: Has improved, but her efforts against open company suggests she wants less distance, not more. |
| by Brethren | 3rd by 1 1/4, 88 | ||
| Dunbar Road | 12-1 | Gulfstream Park Oaks, 3/30 | MW: Narrowly missed in the GP Oaks in just her second career start, obviously has considerable upside. |
| by Quality Road | 2nd by 1/2, 89 |