Watchmaker: 2019 Kentucky Oaks Watch
This is the time of year when Kentucky Derby Fever really begins to brew, and the whys of it certainly require no reading or repeating here. Unfortunately, this also is the time of year when the tradition of the 3-year-old filly division being overshadowed also occurs, and that is a shame.
The Kentucky Oaks is eclipsed because of the behemoth that the Derby is, and because it is run literally in the shadow of the Derby on the day before. But the Oaks is a true major event, one I believe is by far the most important race in the 3-year-old filly division.
As massive as the Kentucky Derby is, it might not always be able to make the claim that it is the most important race in the 3-year-old male division. In years when a Triple Crown sweep is completed in the Belmont Stakes, the Derby is only part of a three-piece unit. And in particular, in years when parity rules amongst 3-year-old males, the Derby might easily take a back seat to races later in the year that could have a greater role in determining the divisional champion.
In a small attempt to address the imbalance between the Oaks and Derby, I offer, as I’ve done from time to time in the past, a Derby Watch-style Oaks Watch. With an extremely light national stakes schedule this weekend, this is the perfect weekend to put it out there. And I will follow up with another one if another void in the stakes schedule makes for an opportunity.
What follows is a list of 14 3-year-old fillies, which matches the cap on the starting field in the Oaks. The list is comprised of some fillies who have earned Oaks points and/or others who in my view merit inclusion. What it does not include is a few fillies I have questions about.
For example, It’sjustanillusion and Vibrance have the credentials for inclusion, especially the former, but as of this writing, neither shows a published workout this year. And Power Gal and Marathon Queen, though sharp finishing one-two in the Martha Washington Stakes in their first attempts around two turns, were excluded because that was a very slow race with a winning Beyer Speed Figure of just 73.
Okay, here it is, Oaks Watch:
|
HORSE/ SIRE |
WATCH ODDS |
LAST RACE/ FINISH/ BEYER |
COMMENT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaywalk | 3-1 | BC Juvenile Fillies, 11/2 | MW: Champ simply dominated last fall, working purposefully at Palm Meadows, the deserving favorite. |
| by Cross Traffic | 1st by 5 1/2, 94 | ||
| Bellafina | 6-1 | Las Virgenes, 2/9 | MW: Only bad race was against Jaywalk in the Breeders' Cup, sharp before and since, strong threat. |
| by Quality Road | 1st by 3/4, 90 | ||
| Chasing Yesterday | 8-1 | Starlet, 12/8 | MW: American Pharoah's half-sister has lost just once in five starts, eagerly awaiting her 3yo debut. |
| by Tapit | 1st by a head, 82 | ||
| Restless Rider | 10-1 | Golden Rod, 11/24 | MW: Finished second to Jaywalk in the Juvenile Fillies, had first published work of year on Feb. 16. |
| by Distorted Humor | 2nd by a nose, 75 | ||
| Serengeti Empress | 10-1 | Rachel Alexandra, 2/16 | MW: Felt she was just so so last year, but she took a giant step forward winning at FG in her 3yo bow. |
| by Alternation | 1st by 4 1/2, 91 | ||
| Enaya Alrabb | 12-1 | Las Virgenes, 2/9 | MW: Ran Chasing Yesterday, Bellafina to close decions in last two and is vastly improved, intriguing. |
| by Uncle Mo | 2nd by 3/4, 89 | ||
| Feedback | 15-1 | Forward Gal, 2/2 | MW: Had to work hard in seasonal bow to win Forward Gal, but is now 2 for 2 and is clearly talented. |
| by Violence | 1st by 1/2, 85 | ||
| Point of Honor | 15-1 | Suncoast, 2/9 | MW: Was track bias-aided in Tampa, but has now won both of her starts decisively, and going long. |
| by Curlin | 1st by 2 3/4, 82 | ||
| Calf Moon Bay | 20-1 | Las Virgenes, 2/9 | MW: Her third to Bellafina in the Las Virgenes was her best Beyer yet, still needs more improvement. |
| by Bodemeister | 3rd by 3 1/2, 84 | ||
| Lady Kate | 20-1 | Suncoast, 2/9 | MW: Would have been closer to Point of Honor in Tampa had she not drifted to dead rail in stretch. |
| by Bernardini | 2nd by 2 3/4, 78 | ||
| Liora | 20-1 | Rachel Alexandra, 2/16 | MW: Even though she was soundly beaten in the Rachel Alexandra, that was her highest Beyer so far. |
| by Candy Ride | 2nd by 4 1/2, 83 | ||
| Always Shopping | 30-1 | Busanda, 2/3 | MW: Got maiden win in Busanda going Oaks distance of 1 1/8 miles, is improving and has some appeal. |
| by Awesome Again | 1st by 1 1/4, 76 | ||
| Eres Tu | 30-1 | Rachel Alexandra, 2/16 | MW: She, too, earned a career-best Beyer Figure when soundly defeated in the Rachel Alexandra. |
| by Malibu Moon | 3rd by 5 3/4, 82 | ||
| Needs Supervision | 30-1 | Rachel Alexandra, 2/16 | MW: Her win streak was halted at three last time after a wide trip, is capable of better, however. |
| by Paynter | 5th by 11 1/4, 73 |