Road to the Derby: UAE Derby analysis

Group 2, $2.5 million United Arab Emirates Derby; 1,900 meters (about 1 3/16 miles); Meydan, March 30, 2019

(100 Derby qualifying points for a win, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth)

Winner: Plus Que Parfait, by Point of Entry

Trainer: Brendan Walsh

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Owner: Imperial Racing LLC

Beyer Speed Figure: N/A

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 Kentucky Derby contenders with comments from Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker

The only two horses out of this race who could possibly run in the Kentucky Derby are the top two finishers, PLUS QUE PARFAIT and GRAY MAGICIAN, so this analysis will be abbreviated, focusing only on that pair.

Both Plus Que Parfait and Gray Magician had been found in Derby preps earlier this year in the United States to be a cut below the best of this division, so this was a shrewd move by their connections, to avoid the heavy hitters and take their shot in a race with an outsized purse. Going into this race, Plus Que Parfait had a career-best Beyer figure of 84, and Gray Magician had topped out at 80. Plus Que Parfait won the race by three-quarters of a length, but even if both improved a few lengths, they still are running figs that don’t quite measure up against the top Derby candidates.

Plus Que Parfait is a definite starter in the Derby, per colleague Marcus Hersh, who reported that Gray Magician is not certain, even though his 40 points likely would get him in. That seems to be realistic reasoning by his connections, who include co-owner Gary Barber, who owns War of Will.

In this race, Plus Que Parfait – who added blinkers for the first time -- was sent a bit away from the gate to gain a decent position with the short run into the first turn. He found himself on the rail, just behind the early leaders, heading around the first bend. With little movement throughout the field, he continued to save ground heading down the backstretch, and went into the final turn mid-pack while hugging the fence. He had to come around a tiring rival heading into the long homestretch, then cut between rivals about 200 meters out while making a bid for the lead. He poked his head in front and was doing his best to the wire. It was a good, solid race, but not something that would project him as win candidate five weeks hence.

Gray Magician, who finished second, broke best of all, then was rated and in fact was mid-pack going around the first turn, just behind and outside of Plus Que Parfait. He continued to drop farther back through the field into the backstretch, then angled about six paths wide to find clear room in order to advance. He raced about five paths wide on the final turn while making an extended run, was in front of Plus Que Parfait in upper stretch, continued bravely to the wire, but was outfinished by Plus Que Parfait. Considering his wide trip, his extended rally, and the possibility this distance is a bit beyond his optimum, this was his best race yet.