Road to the Derby: Matt Winn Stakes analysis

Grade 3, $150,000 Matt Winn Stakes; 1 1/16 miles; Churchill Downs; May 23, 2020
(50 Derby qualifying points for a win, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)

Winner: Maxfield, by Street Sense

Trainer: Brendan Walsh

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Owner: Godolphin LLC

Beyer Speed Figure: 95

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The wait was worth it. MAXFIELD, who had not raced since the Breeders’ Futurity last October, impressed in this, his first start of the year and his first in more than seven months. As with Charlatan and Nadal, he remains unbeaten and among the elite prospects for this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Maxfield is one of the prime beneficiaries of the Derby’s delay until Sept. 5. Had it been run back on May 2, he likely would have run out of time to be properly prepared, as he got a late start this year following ankle surgery last fall and might have had time for just one prep. Not ideal. Once the Derby was postponed, Walsh backed off on his training, then proceeded when the path became clearer. Maxfield now has plenty of time to be ready to run 1 1/4 miles against the best, and the way he ran here – earning a career-best Beyer figure over the track where the Derby will be run while beating horses with far more recency -- he’s going to be one of the top contenders.

Maxfield broke poorly in both his races at 2, but in this race a far more physically developed Maxfield broke alertly and prompted the pace into the first turn in the four path before being tucked in by Ortiz. That move allowed Maxfield to not be caught wide the whole way around the turn, but also put him in traffic behind what was unfolding as a moderate pace. This provided invaluable experience for the task ahead. Maxfield raced behind a thicket of horses heading down the backstretch and into the far turn, raced in the three path on the far turn before angling between runners approaching the quarter pole to come into the lane five wide, then motored home in the center of the track to run down NY TRAFFIC.

Ny Traffic, who finished second, broke best and attended the pace from the three path around the first turn. He remained in that spot down the backstretch and around the far turn, surged to the lead about five-sixteenths out, drifted out at midstretch when struck left-landed, but kept to his task to retain the place while unable to hold off Maxfield. He has run his two best races since blinkers were added, but he has also benefitted from advantageous pace scenarios.

PNEUMATIC, who was third, had speed from his inside draw and hugged the rail while with the leaders around the first turn. He was about a half-length behind pacesetting CELTIC STRIKER early on the backstretch, but steadily gained ground to be even with the leader three furlongs out. He was overtaken by Ny Traffic about five-sixteenths out, but battled back to vie for the lead until deep stretch before tiring. This was only his third start and his stakes debut and, owing to his position the way the race unfolded, he never got a breather. There’s lots of upside here.

ATTACHMENT RATE, who was fourth, went into the first turn five paths wide, just outside Maxfield, then ended up four wide when Maxfield slid in one lane. He sat just off the hip of Ny Traffic down the backstretch, remained four wide all the way around the far turn, couldn’t match strides with Maxfield coming off the bend but finished well enough while not changing leads. He’s good enough to get checks going two turns, but I really think his wheelhouse is around one turn, at a mile or seven furlongs.

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NECKER ISLAND, who was fifth, was outfooted in the early stages and went into the first turn in the three path while in eighth before being guided to the rail to follow Pneumatic. He was under a snug hold while in traffic down the backstretch, continued to follow Pneumatic around the far turn, then finished evenly. He’s also likely to benefit from a cutback to a one-turn race.

Celtic Striker, who was sixth, led narrowly around the first turn and down the backstretch while in the two path while between Pneumatic and Ny Traffic. He began to weaken midway on the far turn and steadily faded through the lane. He needs easier company.

SHAKE SOME ACTION, who was seventh, lacked early speed and raced at the rear of the pack in the two path around the first turn. He remained toward the rear of the field while in the two path down the backstretch and around most of the far turn, was angled to the four path coming into the lane, but never made any impact.

INFORMATIVE, who was eighth, saved ground around the first turn while inside Shake Some Action, dropped back to last early on the backstretch, saved ground while always well back and never got involved. Overmatched.

FLAP JACK, who was ninth, raced in the two path around the first turn, in traffic, just behind Celtic Striker and inside Maxfield. He raced between rivals down the backstretch and around the far turn, at which point he was asked to advance but instead retreated.

MAJOR FED, who finished last of 10, was hampered by his outside stall and an indecisive ride into the first turn – either go or drop in -- and wound up six paths wide, then moved to the five path, just outside Attachment Rate. Owing to the well-bunched field he never could get over down the backstretch and went into the far turn five paths wide, at which point he was asked to advance. He couldn’t stay with Attachment Rate nearing the quarter pole, drifted out to the six path as Maxfield came up inside him, then faded. He’s a cut below, but this race is a throwout.