Road to the Derby: Lexington Stakes analysis

Grade 3, $200,000 Lexington Stakes; 1 1/16 miles; Keeneland; April 20, 2019
(20 Derby qualifying points for a win, 8 for second, 4 for third, 2 for fourth)

Winner: Owendale, by Into Mischief

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Florent Geroux

Owner: Rupp Racing

Beyer Speed Figure: 98

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 Kentucky Derby contenders with comments from Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker

This race was run on the same day as the Arkansas Derby, and offered one-fifth the purse and point value, and thus came up decidedly softer on paper. But the Beyer Figure earned by OWENDALE was one of the best of the spring among this crop, so this race may end up being sneaky good.

Owendale does not have enough points to get into the Derby, but this was a nice bounce-back effort for a colt who looked to have plenty of promise earlier in the year but ran a surprisingly poor race in the Risen Star. He’s one to watch down the line, perhaps as soon as the Preakness.

Runner-up ANOTHERTWISTAFATE was in this solely to try and get enough points to make the Derby field. A win would have guaranteed him a spot. With all the prep races now run, he’s on the outside looking in, and needs attrition from several runners above him to make it. He has a free roll into the Preakness via his victory in the El Camino Real Derby, so perhaps Round 2 of Anothertwistafate vs. Owendale will be a subplot to the second leg of the Triple Crown.

In this race, Owendale settled near the back of the pack while four paths wide around the first turn. He crept closer nearing the far turn and then launched an eye-catching rally four to five paths wide around that turn to vault from eighth to first, took the lead in upper stretch, and was never threatened through the final furlong.

Anothertwistafate, who finished second, was wearing front leg wraps for the first time. Though in a bit tight a few strides from the gate, he used his tactical speed to establish position behind behind two dueling leaders around the first turn while under a snug hold, as ZENDEN was to his outside and he was stuck there. He stayed in that spot to the far turn and remained there for much of that turn, was able to split horses and get a clear run with a little less than a quarter-mile to go, dived down to the rail, but did not make up any ground on the leader through the final furlong. I thought his traffic issues, overall, were minimal; he needed more acceleration than he provided when it mattered. That said, he’s probably at his best when allowed to race on the lead. He might not be quick enough on dirt to get that kind of trip.

SUENO, who was third, was bothered slightly in the opening strides, then followed Anothertwistafate around the first turn while in the two path and in traffic. He stayed there for much of the backstretch and had to tap on the brakes with about a half-mile to go. He allowed Owendale to get first run on him, then followed Owendale into the lane in the four path. He kept to his task, but not getting out midway on the turn was detrimental. He’s a tough little bugger who’s making a nice living picking up secondary awards in graded stakes.

KNICKS GO, who was fourth, was sent aggressively from the gate and came over a bit quick in the initial strides to briefly tighten things up on Anothertwistafate, Sueno, and CHASE THE GHOST. He set up shop outside of HAWAIIAN NOISES around the first turn. He was under a snug hold while second early on the backstretch, took the lead midway on the far turn, was no match for Owendale in upper stretch, and tired through the final furlong. The pace in this race was moderate. He hasn’t been the same since he was wheeled back for the Kentucky Jockey Club 22 days after his bang-up second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

SHANG, who was fifth, followed Hawaiian Noises around the first turn while mid-pack and saving ground. He started to lose some ground early on the backstretch, then made an aggressive move along the rail nearing the far turn, only to end up stuck behind a stopping Hawaiian Noises. He got shuffled back, had to wait and then come around Hawaiian Noises, then finished evenly while failing to change leads. He’s a cut above the Louisiana-breds he was tattooing earlier this year, and with a better trip might be able to knock out a minor open stakes.

ROILAND, who was sixth, lacked speed per usual and trailed into the first turn while two to three paths off the rail. He remained well back down the backstretch, started to gain ground while following Owendale around the far turn in the four path, got fanned to about the five or six path entering the lane, and kept plugging away but never threatened. The addition of blinkers for his last four races has not produced the desired effect of having him lay closer. Considering he’s by Successful Appeal, perhaps he’d be better suited by turning back to a sprint, where he’d get some pace to close into.

HARVEY WALLBANGER, who was seventh, broke slowly, then went into the first turn along the rail, in front of only Roiland. He continued to save ground down the backstretch and around the far turn and lacked any semblance of a rally when called upon. He needs a pace meltdown, like he got in the Holy Bull.

Zenden, who was eighth, went into the first turn behind and outside of Knicks Go, with Anothertwistafate to his immediate inside. He stayed in that spot to the far turn, had a clear run from the three path three furlongs out, but began to weaken before reaching the top of the stretch, and continued to retreat.

Hawaiian Noises, who was ninth, showed good speed from his inside draw to take the lead, was shadowed by Knicks Go all the way to the far turn, began to weaken midway on the turn, and steadily dropped back. This was his first try around two turns. Back to sprinting.

Chase the Ghost, who finished last of 10, checked slightly when Knicks Go crossed over leaving the gate, then went into the first turn toward the latter half of the field while three paths wide, outside Sueno. He got fanned farther wide into the backstretch, entered the far turn in the four path while just outside Zenden, had Owendale flash past him midway on the turn, and quickly dropped back.