Road to the Derby: Florida Derby analysis

Grade 1, $1 million Florida Derby; 1 1/8 miles; Gulfstream Park; March 30, 2019

(100 Derby qualifying points for a win, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth)

Winner: Maximum Security, by New Year’s Day

Trainer: Jason Servis

Jockey: Luis Saez

Owner: Gary and Mary West

Beyer Speed Figure: 101

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 Kentucky Derby contenders with comments from Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker

MAXIMUM SECURITY had keen speed in his three previous races, all wins, all sprints. This was a giant step up in class, but when no one went with him early, he was able to set a soft pace (48.98 seconds to the half, 1:12.90 for six furlongs) on a track that usually carries speed anyway. There was no catching him. His owners also have another top contender in late-running Game Winner, last year’s champion 2-year-old male.

Maximum Security is obviously far superior to the $16,000 for which he was risked in his debut. This race showed he could beat top-level competition, but it would be hard to imagine him getting as soft a trip in five weeks at the Derby. Maybe it won’t matter, but as stretch-outs go, this race could not have unfolded better for him. He and runner-up BODEXPRESS were one-two the whole way. Pace definitely made this race.

In this race, Maximum Security – who was quite washy approaching the gate – broke best and was angled over to the inside heading into the first turn. He was able to make the top while those in closest pursuit were put under various levels of restraint. Bodexpress put more pressure on him heading into the far turn, but Maximum Security inched clear anew without being asked. He was asked for his best coming off the bend, and was so fresh he powered through the final three furlongs in less than 36 seconds.

Bodexpress, who finished second, is a maiden who likely earned enough points to run in the Derby, which is the intention of his connections, according to colleague Mike Welsch. He was out of sorts prior to being loaded in the gate. He started just outside Maximum Security, went into the first turn just behind and outside Maximum Security while under a snug hold, then inched closer heading down the backstretch. He had to be urged along a little less than three furlongs out to try and go with Maximum Security, and though he could not keep up he kept to his task and was well clear of everyone else. He, too, benefitted from the soft pace.

CODE OF HONOR, who was third, raced three to four paths wide around the first turn while toward the back half of the field. He went into the far turn in about the three path, was angled to the rail midway on the turn while starting to rally, shifted away from a left-handed whip at midstretch and briefly swapped to his wrong lead before going back to his correct lead, then finished evenly. The pace was of no help.

BOURBON WAR, who was fourth, raced in traffic while about ninth of 11 around the first turn, was angled out to about the three path heading into the far turn to begin his rally, went to the four path midway on the turn, took awhile to swap leads in upper stretch, and also finished decently. The pace and his early position made this a tall order. A truly run race will be in his favor. All things considered, this was a better-than-looked effort.

CURRENT, who was fifth, saved ground while at the rear of the field around the first turn, was in the two path on the far turn, angled out and passed a few horses, but was never in the hunt in a race where the pace made him a non-factor. He really hasn’t had a fair shot in both his dirt tries, as his only prior main-track race was in the slop and he was off poorly and encountered traffic.

HIDDEN SCROLL, who finished sixth, came out of the gate well, then was rated early behind Maximum Security, obviously as a result of what happened in the Fountain of Youth, when he outran a hopeless longshot for the lead through swift fractions. He didn’t look comfortable in that spot, as he was repeatedly pulling hard entering the backside. He finally stopped pulling by the far turn while following Maximum Security, but when asked to advance had nothing to offer and tired. He’s been asked to do a lot in a short amount of time and couldn’t handle it. The reset button will be hit.

UNION’S DESTINY, who was seventh, bulled his way between horses to be prominently placed about three paths wide around the first turn while just behind the top pair and outside Hidden Scroll. He stayed in that spot to the far turn, started to be shoved along three furlongs out, then retreated.

HARVEY WALLBANGER, who was eighth, lacked speed per usual and trailed while three paths wide around the first turn, was three wide on the far turn, got fanned five wide into the lane and could make no impact. He had a great pace setup in the Holy Bull, a race that has not aged well. He had no chance the way this race unfolded.

EVERFAST, who was ninth, dropped to the rail into the first turn and followed Hidden Scroll. He stayed in that spot to the far turn, but lacked any acceleration when needed three furlongs out, and faded.

GARTER AND TIE, who was 10th, was hustled away leaving the gate but still ended up four paths wide into the first turn, had to be shoved along midway down the backstretch, made a bit of run in the four path early on the far turn, but was done by the quarter pole and tired.

HARD BELLE, who finished last of 11, broke well but got shuffled back into the first turn and raced in traffic while mid-pack, raced between Everfast and Code of Honor down the backstretch, was done at the half-mile pole, and quickly stopped while overmatched, per usual with this barn.