Road to the Derby: El Camino Real Derby analysis

Listed, $101,800 El Camino Real Derby; 1 1/8 miles (all-weather); Golden Gate Fields; Feb. 15, 2020

(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Azul Coast, by Super Saver

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Owner: Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman

Beyer Speed Figure: 74

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AZUL COAST was a distant second to his highly regarded stablemate Authentic in the Sham Stakes, so this was a good opportunity to face lesser company, pick up a sizeable check, and earn some points. It would be hard to imagine anyone exiting this field turning into a significant player on the Derby trail, but it is a Win and You’re In for the Preakness, so that might be a long-range target for Azul Coast. Now that he’s shown he can win on an all-weather surface, perhaps something like the Jeff Ruby Steaks will be an intermediate stop. Considering how much Baffert likes the Louisville outpost of that restaurant, it would be appropriate.

In this race, Azul Coast was closer to the pace that he had been in previous races, owing to the tepid (24.15, 49.13) fractions. He was four wide around the first turn while stalking the early leaders, launched a rally on the far turn from the three path, battled for the lead entering the lane, turned back a bid from INDIAN PEAK in upper stretch, held off the late rally of AMERICAN FARMER, then galloped out well in front of everyone else. The farther the better for him.

American Farmer, who finished second, was allowed to drop to the back of the pack into the first turn while saving ground. He remained well back to the far turn, saved some ground initially but then was gradually angled out and was fanned about six lanes wide into the lane, then finished well but never could get to the winner. This was his best race yet, and the first time he had been ridden by Kent Desormeaux.

Indian Peak, who was third, used his rail draw to save ground into the first turn, wound up in the two path, then checked off heels and was taken wider, putting him in about the three or four path by the time he turned into the backstretch. He raced between rivals while in some traffic heading into the far turn, rallied about four paths wide on the far turn, was right alongside Azul Coast a furlong out, couldn’t go with him late and lost the place in the closing yards. He was ridden as though his connections believe has to be outside horses to be most effective, so the rail draw might have compromised his chances.

WINE AND WHISKY, who was fourth, raced on his wrong lead coming through the lane the first time, checked early on the first turn, then took up sharply and got shuffled back to ninth. He began a rally in the two path on the far turn, was angled about four wide heading into the lane, then finished evenly while looking as though he was trying to lug in.

THE STIFF, who was fifth, raced four to five paths wide around the first turn while toward the back half of the field, never could get over and wound up five paths wide around the far turn while directly outside Indian Peak, could not keep pace in upper stretch but kept to his task. He had no chance the way the race unfolded.

SACRED RIDER, who finished sixth, had good speed away from the gate, let CZECHMIGHT cross in front of him heading into the first turn, then took up a stalking position outside Czechmight. He inched closer beginning three furlongs out, was vying for the lead coming off the bend, briefly tried to go with Azul Coast, but gradually tired in deep stretch while failing to change leads.

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AJOURNEYTOFREEDOM, who was seventh, was forwardly placed just inside of Azul Coast into the first turn, checked slightly, then wound up between Azul Coast and MYSTERIOUS STONES around the first turn. He couldn’t go with Azul Coast three furlongs out, remained in a contending position in the two path coming off the bend, but was beaten to a hole a furlong out and surrendered.

Czechmight, who was eighth, broke half a step slow but moved quickly to the lead without being asked one bit, then reached the rail a quarter-mile into the race. He led around the far turn and still had a narrow lead entering the lane, but steadily faded through the final furlong.

FINAL FINAL, who was ninth, raced at the rear of the field into the first turn while two to three paths wide, remained well back throughout, was fanned about six paths wide entering the lane, raced on his wrong lead through the stretch, and never got involved.

Mysterious Stones, who was 10th, broke best, then was taken to the rail as Czechmight and Sacred Rider took over. He followed Czechmight to the far turn while third along the rail, had a hole open coming off the bend that afforded him a great opportunity, but lacked any acceleration, tried to lug in a bit, then emptied out.

PRAISE LOUDLY, who was last of 11, hugged the rail on the first turn while mid-pack while following Mysterious Stones, stayed in that spot down the backstretch and around the far turn, but was outrun through the lane while needing much weaker company than he faced here.