Road to the Derby: Blue Grass analysis
Grade 2, $1 million Blue Grass Stakes; 1 1/8 miles; Keeneland; April 6, 2019
(100 Derby qualifying points for a win, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth)
Winner: Vekoma, by Candy Ride
Trainer: George Weaver
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Owner: R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables
Beyer Speed Figure: 94
VEKOMA was third in the Fountain of Youth (https://www.drf.com/news/road-2019-kentucky-derby-fountain-youth-analysis) in his 3-year-old debut, and was given an extra week out of that race to point for the Blue Grass instead of the Florida Derby. It proved to be a smart move, as Vekoma easily defeated his 13 rivals.
Vekoma is not a very big horse, and he has awkward action – he paddles badly with his left front -- but he can run. He has now won three times in four starts, and the early position he always seems to get has been a winning approach in most recent editions of the Derby. Early position definitely helped on this day, as being close to the pace was a winning profile on this card. This was his first race with Castellano, who was casting about for a Derby mount all spring and now has a live ticket.
In this race, Vekoma showed good speed away from the gate to bank into the first turn just outside of SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN. He stayed just behind and outside of Somelikeithotbrown early on the backstretch, moved right alongside with about five furlongs to go, then asserted his superiority nearing the top of the stretch and pulled away down the lane.
WIN WIN WIN, who finished second, was shuffled back in the early going and was 13th into the first turn while in the two path. He gradually passed a few rivals down the backstretch and split rivals in the two path while beginning his rally three furlongs out. He ran into a traffic jam midway on the far turn and had to check, was angled to the four path coming off the bend and made a nice late run to touch out SIGNALMAN for the place. I was skeptical of this colt’s ability to handle two turns earlier this year, but both his route races have been solid, and he earns bonus points in here for rallying against the track profile and overcoming trouble. He’s not without a chance on Derby Day.
Signalman, who was third, saved ground around the first turn while following Somelikeithotbrown, stayed in that spot to the far turn, then was angled to the three path to go after the leaders. He couldn’t go with Vekoma coming off the bend while drifting out, ducked back inside the tiring Somelikeithotbrown in upper stretch, took a long time to get past Somelikeithotbrown and then got nailed right on the wire by Win Win Win for second. He had a very good trip.
Somelikeithotbrown, who was fourth, was hustled away from his inside draw and led into the first turn, then had Vekoma go up and engage him five furlongs out. He couldn’t stay with Vekoma nearing the quarter pole, drifted out a bit in upper stretch while failing to change leads, battled bravely but couldn’t stave off the second- and third-place finishers in the final 50 yards.
:: Add Keeneland Clocker Reports to your handicapping arsenal
CHESS CHIEF, who was fifth, went into the first turn in the four path and then was angled closer to the rail while just behind the early leaders. He dropped back a bit heading to the far turn, but then made up some ground while rallying on the rail on the turn, and went evenly through the lane while not threatening the top four.
SO ALIVE, who was sixth, bobbled slightly leaving the gate and then went into the first turn toward the rear of the pack while four wide. He remained well back to the far turn, made up a bit of ground on the turn and followed Win Win Win into the lane, then just went up and down the rest of the way while failing to change leads.
SIR WINSTON, who was seventh, raced mid-pack in traffic while between rivals in the two path around the first turn. He was eased back and taken to the outside down the backstretch, went into the far turn about three paths wide while outside Win Win Win, was fanned about six paths wide entering the lane but lacked much of a rally.
ADMIRE, who finished eighth, was about five paths wide into the first turn, made some progress down the backstretch and was about a length behind Signalman with 3 1/2 furlongs to go, was asked to advance midway on the turn, but had nothing to offer.
MOONSTER, who was ninth, trailed while three to four paths wide on the first turn, was well back down the backstretch, passed some stragglers while four wide on the far turn, came into the lane in the six path, but never got close.
LUCKY LEE, who was 10th, stumbled leaving the gate, then went into the first turn toward the back half of the field while three paths wide, then checked midway around that turn. He dropped back down the backstretch and was only in front of Moonster with a half-mile to go, split horses while well back in the two path on the far turn, but was always outrun. He likely needs a return to a shorter distance and softer company.
MARKET KING, who was 11th, bobbled leaving the gate, but recovered to briefly lead before yielding the top to Somelikeithotbrown and Vekoma. He stayed in the three path around the first turn and into the backstretch, was four wide while just outside Signalman while rallying on the far turn, but was out of gas just inside the quarter pole and faded. Of those closest to the early pace, most of whom finished in prominent positions, he ran the worst.
AQUADINI, who was 12th, couldn’t get over from his outside stall and went into the first turn six paths wide while mid-pack. He never got over, went into the far turn four paths wide, and never put forth any appreciable effort.
DREAM MAKER, who was 13th, checked in the early going, then was guided to the rail, but appeared to resent the spray of dirt and threw his head about. He raced in a bit of traffic early on the backstretch while following Signalman, was asked to advance nearing the far turn, but had nothing and retreated.
PARSIMONY, who finished last of 14, was sent away from the gate but wound up about five to six paths wide while just behind and outside the early leaders. He steadily advanced while wide down the backstretch and got up to fourth while outside Market King and Signalman, remained about four paths wide around the far turn and steadily faded. He’s still a maiden and needs to hang out with his friends again.