Road to the 2019 Kentucky Derby: Fountain of Youth analysis

Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Gulfstream Park, March 2, 2019

(50 Derby qualifying points for a win, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)

Winner: Code of Honor, by Noble Mission

Trainer: Shug McGaughey

Jockey: John Velazquez

Owner: W. S. Farish

Beyer Speed Figure: 95

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 Kentucky Derby contenders with comments from Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker

CODE OF HONOR showed plenty of promise with his second-place finish in last year’s Champagne Stakes, but since then little had gone right. He took ill prior to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and had to be scratched, then two months later was a disappointing fourth as the odds-on favorite in the Mucho Macho Man.

McGaughey told me prior to the Fountain of Youth that he had trained Code of Honor harder coming into the race in the hope that would help him move forward. A combination of that, being able to go two turns for the first time, and a great trip and ride from Velazquez produced this bounce-back victory. The race shape certainly helped him as well as runner-up BOURBON WAR, and it was detrimental to HIDDEN SCROLL, who faded to fourth after setting a scalding pace. But this showed that Code of Honor is headed in the right direction five months after that auspicious Champagne performance.

Code of Honor is not a very robust horse – neither is third-place VEKOMA – so I’d expect they would benefit by having plenty of time between starts. That’s not an issue during the prep season, when races are four or five weeks apart, but if they have to come back on short rest in May or June, that might be a concern.

In this race, Code of Honor used his rail draw to save ground around the first turn while following GLADIATOR KING. He switched off nicely as the top three sped away, then at the three-furlong pole was able to knife between Gladiator King and Vekoma as he began his rally. After clearing Gladiator King, he was taken to the rail and got through inside of a tiring GLOBAL CAMPAIGN, then tipped out to go after Hidden Scroll. He took over inside the furlong pole and was not in danger late when Bourbon War came rolling.

Bourbon War, who finished second, got shuffled back leaving the gate and was last entering the first turn. He saved ground while following Code of Honor around the first turn, got through between rivals near the top of the stretch, cornered a bit awkwardly and drifted to the four path, was late to change leads, then finished well after changing leads. He galloped out in front of everyone.

Vekoma, who was third, broke very sharply and then was sensibly rated to take up a position right outside of Code of Honor around the first turn. He moved into fourth down the backstretch while gaining some separation from Code of Honor, was being asked for his best three furlongs out while three paths wide on the far turn, bumped with Global Campaign just before turning into the lane, was late to change leads too, and finished evenly. He paddles pretty badly with his left front but is very willing. This was his first start in four months, so he has every right to moved forward off it.

Hidden Scroll, who was fourth, broke half a step slowly but then was sent along to seize the lead from Gladiator King through a 22.80-second opening quarter. He continued to roll along through a torrid half in 45.69 seconds, put away Gladiator King heading to the far turn, turned back a bid from Global Campaign on the far turn, drifted out a bit entering the lane, tried to stay with the winner in upper stretch, but then understandably emptied out late and just got caught for third. Considering this was his second start, first around two turns, first against winners – and in a stakes – and he set a hot pace, this was a terrific effort by the horse. By the rider – who felt compelled go extremely fast to outrun a 132-1 shot for the early lead -- not so much. Trainer Bill Mott said Joel Rosario would not ride back in his next start.

Global Campaign, who was fifth, went into the first turn in the three path while following Hidden Scroll and Gladiator King, was in an ideal spot heading into the backstretch, but inexplicably was sent along to chase leaders who were setting a swift pace. He was just shy of a length behind Hidden Scroll midway on the far turn when he began to weaken, bumped with Vekoma while tiring between Vekoma and Code of Honor, and had little left while failing to change leads until late in the stretch. He emerged from the race with a quarter crack -- the rear of a hoof badly cut up -- and is off the Derby trail, trainer Stan Hough said.

UNION’S DESTINY, who finished sixth, was caught about seven paths wide into the first turn and eventually got down to the five path, but was compromised by his wide draw. He was well back while wide most of the way, was four paths wide on the far turn, but kept trying and split the field. He’s not this good, but he’s an intriguing gamble next time when in with softer.

SIGNALMAN, who was seventh, was about three paths wide while in traffic and toward the back half of the field around the first turn, then got to the rail – standard operating procedure for the highly underrated Brian Hernandez Jr. – nearing the far turn while following Code of Honor. He had to go around a tiring Gladiator King on the far turn, but other than that had a fairly easy time of it the final six furlongs. He likely needed the race, but considering the race shape he should have finished better.

EVERFAST, who was eighth, was five paths wide entering the first turn and only was able to drop over to the four path going around that turn, was well back upon entering the backstretch and remained well back the rest of the way. He had finished second in the Holy Bull, a race that looked weak when it was run and didn’t age well here.

EPIC DREAMER, who was ninth, was asked a bit leaving the gate and initially was alongside Code of Honor into the first turn, but then retreated a bit while between Code of Honor and Vekoma. He was even with Code of Honor nearing the far turn, went to the four path to try and rally, but started to struggle nearing the quarter pole, and badly weakened.

FROSTED GRACE, who was 10th, was six paths wide entering the first turn and then dropped over to the four path. He was far back the rest of the way and only managed to pass the stopping Gladiator King.

Gladiator King, who finished last of 11, led into the first turn and dropped over to the rail, then was out-sprinted for the lead by Hidden Scroll going around the first turn. He was on Hidden Scroll’s hip to the half-mile pole, started to weaken, then tired badly over the final three furlongs. He finished 30 lengths behind Hidden Scroll, underscoring how well Hidden Scroll ran if nothing else.