Road to the Derby: Arkansas Derby (Division 1) analysis

Grade 1, $500,000 Arkansas Derby (Division 1); 1 1/8 miles; Oaklawn Park; May 2, 2020
(100 Derby qualifying points for a win, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth)

Winner: Charlatan, by Speightstown

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Martin Garcia

Owners: SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables, Hertrich

Beyer Speed Figure: 96

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CHARLATAN is living a charmed life. He was in danger of not running in the Arkansas Derby if the race didn’t split, and then when it split he ended up in the softer half, one in which he also had a decided pace advantage. And it’s not as if he needs any help. He’s a terrifically talented colt. He’s essentially Justify 2.0, with similar ownership and the same trainer. Like Justify, Charlatan did not race at 2. Unlike Justify, he gets more time to develop, owing to the Derby’s postponement this year. He is among the very strong hand Baffert has at the moment, along with Nadal, who won the other division of this race, and San Felipe winner Authentic, a colt who is owned by many of the same folks who are in on Charlatan.

Like Justify, Charlatan won a maiden sprint and then a two-turn allowance at Santa Anita to begin his career. This, his third start, was his stakes debut, and also the first time he had to ship. He handled it all like he has everything else, seemingly effortlessly while cruising to a lopsided victory. He had a slightly slower final time than Nadal, thus the slightly lower Beyer Figure than his stablemate, but he set a faster pace for every split through the mile, which certainly had to impact the way he finished the final furlong. He still won in a romp.

In this race, owing to his speed and inside draw, the strategy was obvious, and Charlatan sped right to the front, securing a daylight lead before even going a furlong. He was under a snug hold but went along at a quick clip, maintained his high cruising speed all the way to the far turn – at which point his rivals came under more urging – then was let out a notch coming to the quarter pole. He was roused in upper stretch, and was ridden out to the wire while receiving four left-handed cracks of the whip through the lane. The result was never in doubt.

BASIN, who finished second, broke to his right from his outside stall but was quickly corrected and moved swiftly to sit second behind Charlatan heading into the first turn. He started to be pushed along heading to the far turn to try to close the gap on Charlatan, never could get to Charlatan, but bravely saved second. Being in the chase position is an unenviable task, so he ran well, but I question whether additional distance will suit him. That said, this was his best performance of the year.

GOUVERNEUR MORRIS, who was third, went into the first turn between rivals, in the two path, while right behind Basin. He stayed in that spot for most of the backstretch, was shoved along beginning three furlongs out, was able to cut the corner into the lane, angled outside Basin in upper stretch, then finished evenly while unable to catch a horse who had to do all the dirty work. I don’t think he’s improved much from 2 to 3, but he’s got four more months to get better.

WINNING IMPRESSION, who was fourth, settled mid-pack while three paths wide around the first turn, raced in the two path around the far turn, was guided to the rail in upper stretch, but failed to make any impact late.

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ANNEAU D’OR, who was fifth, broke half a step slowly, then was taken outside rivals and rushed up to press the pace from the three path during an eventful opening quarter-mile. He was just outside and behind Basin down the backstretch, came under a drive three furlongs out while in the three path, but was done before reaching the quarter pole. Not sure what’s up with him, but his two tries this year have been disappointing. Perhaps he needs to return to the turf, over which he scored a dynamic win in his debut last September.

CRYPTO CASH, who was sixth, raced under a snug hold while toward the rear of the pack in the two path around the first turn. He was outrun for much of the backstretch and dropped farther back, passed a couple of weary rivals through the lane but was never close to being involved.

MO MOSA, who was seventh, saved ground around the first turn while following Charlatan, moved closer a half-mile out, but steadily faded over the final three furlongs.

JUNGLE RUNNER, who was eighth, ran with his head up during the opening furlong while seeming to resent the spray of dirt and dropped back to last. He was well back the rest of the way while saving ground. Overmatched.

MY FRIENDS BEER, who finished last of nine, saved ground around the first turn while following Mo Mosa, raced inside of Winning Impression down the backstretch, never got close, and faded over the final three furlongs.