Road to the 2023 Kentucky Derby: Sunland Park Derby analysis

$600,000 Sunland Derby, March 26, 2023

[50 qualifying points for first, 20 for second, 15 for third, 10 for fourth, and 5 for fifth]
Winner: Wild On Ice, by Tapizar
Trainer: Joel Marr
Jockey: Ken Tohill
Owner: Frank Sumpter
Distance / time: 1 1/8 miles / 1:51.39
Win margin: 1 ¼ miles
Beyer: 77

There’s just not much to be said about this race. WILD ON ICE had finished third, beaten more than 20 lengths, in the Sunland Derby prep, the Mine That Bird Derby; that after finishing ninth by more than 24 lengths making his stakes and two-turn debut in the Riley Allison Derby. He was a 35-1 shot in a six-horse field – and that feels like a price lower than merited.

Wild On Ice broke well enough from the outside post in a six-horse field and raced a few paths wide around the first turn, while on the lead, favored HARD TO FIGURE, off a second-place finish in the Robert Lewis Stakes, raced outside HENRY Q, the Mine That Bird winner. Hard to Figure was only about a length off the pace at the half-mile pole, moved into second at the quarter pole when Hard to Figure threw in the towel, inherited the lead at the three-sixteenths when Henry Q started to struggle, and was all out edging clear of runner-up LOW EXPECTATIONS. On video, the horses looked like they staggered home, and the Beyer Speed Figure, light years from being competitive in major races, reflected that. Wild On Ice and Henry Q were made late Triple Crown nominees, for whatever that’s worth.

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Low Expectations, coming out of a Santa Anita conditioned starter-allowance win, raced just inside and slightly behind Wild On Ice down the backstretch and came under a ride to keep up going to the three-furlong marker. He got through along the fence in upper stretch, slipping inside Henry Q, was late to switch leads, as was the winner, and went along evenly while second best.

You might think a pace battle caused the leaders to stop, but Wild On Ice came from right behind them. Henry Q held on longer than did Hard To Figure, but he had nothing for the final furlong and a half.

HOW DID HE DO THAT was a distant last at the half-mile pole, rallied mildly, and passed two very tired horses to get fourth. ONE IN VERMILLION threw a fit in the starting gate, getting his front legs over the stall door, and should have been scratched after he was backed out of the gate. Instead, he was reloaded and did next to zero running. Hard to Figure backed up badly from the quarter pole to the wire.

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