Road to the 2023 Kentucky Derby: Lexington Stakes analysis

$400,000 Lexington Stakes, April 15, 2023 [20 qualifying points for first, 0 for second, 6 for third, 4 for fourth, and 2 for fifth]

Winner: First Mission, by Street Sense

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Luis Saez

Owner: Godolphin

Distance / time: 1 1/16 miles / 1:43.74

Win margin: 1/2 length

Beyer: 98

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FIRST MISSION became the sixth horse trained by Brad Cox to win a race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, but the Lexington cannot be a Derby prep for First Mission, whose 20 points won’t get him into the race, nor for runner-up ARABIAN LION, who earned no points because Bob Baffert trains him. However, the six points that third-place DISARM got bumped his total to 46 and will get him into the Derby if his connections desire a spot in the field.

No one else from the Lexington is running in the Derby, so we’ll restrict discussion here to the top three finishers rather than the entire field, as is the norm in this exercise.

First Mission debuted in a hot Fair Grounds maiden sprint, finishing second to talented stablemate Bishops Bay, and then easily cleared the maiden ranks when Cox stretched him out to two turns in a March 18 route. His Beyer Speed Figure dropped from a 96 first out to an 89, but First Mission coasted in his victory and barely appeared to get out of a strong gallop. Cox and Godolphin apparently were impressed, eschewing first-level allowance competition in favor of this Grade 3 stakes.

First Mission broke sharply and briefly led before Arabian Lion crossed over from post 11 to head him off and take the lead early on the clubhouse turn. PRAIRIE HAWK came up on the outside to press the pace, putting First Mission in the pocket. Big-fig Gulfstream debut winner EMPIRESTRIKESFAST posted up outside First Mission down the backstretch but flagged before the half-mile pole.

Prairie Hawk was finished with three furlongs to run as Arabian Lion dashed around the turn, First Mission chasing while under a ride but gaining no ground. Initially steered two paths wide, poised to try and challenge the leader on the outside, First Mission was guided back to the rail with a 1 1/2 furlongs left to race as Arabian Lion cornered poorly. Several paths off the fence straightening for home, Arabian Lion was guided back inside to confront First Mission, who was churning along on the wrong lead, making slow but steady progress along the rail. Finally switching leads at the sixteenth pole, First Mission leveled out, found another gear, and pulled clear to win, but not before being brushed several times by the Irad Ortiz-ridden Arabian Lion.

It’s worth noting that Luis Saez asked First Mission to gallop out strongly into the clubhouse turn – this is the same thing that Cox did with Angel of Empire after he’d finished second in the Southwest Stakes before going on to win the Risen Star and Arkansas Derby at longer distances. First Mission’s figure popped back up to the high 90s and this seemed like a legitimate renewal of the Lexington. Maybe First Mission wants more distance and really will be a Preakness horse.

Arabian Lion laid an egg in the Los Alamitos Futurity but was better last out in the Robert Lewis Stakes and hit a career peak here. Still, he might be a seven-furlong or one-turn miler type.

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As for the potential Derby horse, Disarm broke fine but lacked the early pace of others and was squeezed back and mildly steadied into the first turn when First Mission and Empirestrikesfast came together in front of him. Seemingly a little bit out of rhythm, Disarm wound up down at the rail going around the bend in seventh. Just before hitting the backstretch, Disarm noticeably accelerated, running a field-best 23.48 second quarter mile while gaining several lengths on the leader and getting into fifth at the five-furlong pole. His trip from there to the final furlong and a half wasn’t great. Square in the middle of a pack, Disarm had little room to operate going into the far turn, and as he moved up between horses, First Mission came off the fence to take his path away. Disarm followed First Mission to the three sixteenths pole and was right on his tail, but from there he simply couldn’t finish with the winner and the runner-up.

Disarm needed a top three finish to make the Derby, and, ridden aggressively to the wire, he managed to come home three-quarters of a length in front of fourth-place DENINGTON. Were his connections playing sixth-degree chess, doing just enough to make the Derby while trying to avoid Disarm running too hard to come back with any energy in three weeks? That seems doubtful. But Disarm still did appear to be a little green and he probably does want more distance than this short-stretch 1 1/16 miles.

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