Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby: United Arab Emirates Derby analysis

Grade 2, $1 million United Arab Emirates Derby, about 1 3/16 miles, Meydan, March 26, 2022
(100 Derby qualifying points for first, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth)

Winner: Crown Pride, by Reach the Crown
Trainer: Koichi Shintani
Jockey: Damian Lane
Owner: Teruya Yoshida
Beyer Speed Figure: N/A

With CROWN PRIDE having won this race and, as of the end of March, intended for the Derby, it seems appropriate to try and evaluate his race, as well as that of runner-up SUMMER IS TOMORROW, who earned enough points to run if his connections decide to participate.

Crown Pride was making his first start outside Japan, and continued the sensational run Japanese horses have had recently in international competition. He is now 3 for 4, his only loss coming on an off track and at one mile. His two other previous races, like this resulting in daylight victories, were on the equivalent of fast tracks and at 1 1/8 miles. So there’s reason to think both the off track, and the abbreviated distance, were among the factors contributing to his loss that day.

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That said, this race is a tough one on which to get a line. It was run over a demanding surface that won’t in any way resemble that of Churchill Downs on May 7. And the field looked suspect, with PINEHURST, who was fifth going 1 1/16 miles in his longest previous race, considered a top contender. That 1 1/16-mile race was the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which has proven to be a negative key race.

In this race, Crown Pride didn’t break sharply - not that he was left - but he quickly advanced between rivals and wound up in the three path into the first turn while fifth or sixth. He remained in that spot down the backstretch, in the clear and without cover, moved to challenge from the four path on the far turn without being asked, then made excellent progress the second part of the turn to be second coming off the bend.

He seemed to stall on his run while chasing leader Summer Is Tomorrow in upper stretch, then responded to aggressive handling and got up close to home to win by 2 3/4 lengths, though it looked more like the leader couldn’t stay the trip than Crown Pride accelerated past him.

He also failed to change leads. Other than the start, which wasn’t awful, he had a fairly sweet trip. But if he breaks like that from an inside draw in the Derby, he won’t come close to getting the same trip. One thing that won’t hinder him is the distance. He can stay.

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Summer Is Tomorrow, by contrast, seemed to be looking for a place to lay down late. He had reasons, though, as he seemed to go along at a brisk clip and he put away his early pace rivals.

He was quicker than Pinehurst into the first turn and made the top from a wide draw, then crossed over with a daylight advantage around the first turn. He continued to lead down the backstretch, around the far turn and into the lane, had a daylight advantage in upper stretch, couldn’t hold safe the winner, but held second.

I’ve obviously never seen him in person, but he has very wide action, and the front leg wraps might be telling as to issues resulting from the way he’s put together; he was a $25,000 weanling. This, his seventh start, was his first race beyond seven furlongs. If he comes, he figures as a potential part of the pace, but anything more seems ambitious.