Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby: Robert Lewis Stakes analysis

Grade 3, $200,000 Robert Lewis Stakes; 1 1/16 miles; Santa Anita; Feb. 5, 2022
(10 Derby qualifying points for first, 4 for second, 0 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Messier, by Empire Maker

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: John Velazquez

Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables, Golconda Stable, Siena Farm, Waves Edge Capital, Catherine Donovan, and Jay Schoenfarber

Beyer Speed Figure: 103

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2022: Point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

MESSIER, favored in every one of his starts, finally showed why his connections have held him in such high regard. He scored an overpowering victory that produced the top Beyer Figure among 3-year-olds this year. He has all the tools in terms of performance, pedigree, and the way he travels; he glides over the track with long, efficient strides.

There’s obviously one big caveat, and that involves Messier’s near-term future, because if his owners want him to run in the Derby on May 7, as of now the only path forward is to move Messier to another trainer owing to Baffert’s ban by Churchill Downs. Messier forfeited 10 points in this race – stablemate WHARTON, who was third, forfeited 2 – and Messier will have to start earning points in the points-rich preps to which he now will be headed.

He’s clearly a top-shelf Derby prospect based on this race. Over a fast track that still plays a bit dull, Messier was part of a solid pace with CABO SPIRIT and SIR LONDON, disposed of those two, and drew clear for a lopsided victory. His early rivals finished 15 and 26 1/2 lengths behind him, respectively.

In this race, for which Messier removed the blinkers that were used during a disappointing effort in the Los Alamitos Futurity, Messier showed good speed from his rail draw to hold his position into the first turn and eventually poke his head in front. He led narrowly from Sir London and Cabo Spirit while not being as keen as he was early in the Los Alamitos Futurity, certainly the result of the blinker switch. He maintained a narrow lead down the backstretch and to the far turn, then shook off Sir London. He remained in front of an attacking Cabo Spirit around the turn, then was sent along by Velazquez nearing the quarter pole and gained separation on Cabo Spirit. He switched leads right on cue upon entering the lane, then bounded clear under an energetic hand ride from Velazquez, who eased up on Messier near the wire after sneaking a peek to see how far he was in front of his rivals. Answer: a lot.

Cabo Spirit, who finished second, pressed the pace from the three path around the first turn, pulled a bit upon entering the backside and was aggressive for much of the backstretch run, then was sent along entering the far turn to go after Messier when Sir London yielded. He was under an energetic ride for much of the far turn while failing to get on terms with Messier, couldn’t stay with Messier coming off the bend, but easily beat everyone else.

Wharton, who was third, raced outside HAPPY JACK while following Cabo Spirit around the first turn, was outrun down the backstretch, never really accelerated on the far turn, was floated out a bit to the four path by Happy Jack coming off the bend, was ridden along to gain third, but never was involved. He was third because someone had to be third.

:: Win big at Santa Anita: Get DRF Past Performances, Picks, Clocker Reports and Betting Strategies.

Sir London, who was fourth, stumbled at the start but recovered quickly to go up and press the pace between Messier and Cabo Spirit around the first turn, stayed in that spot down the backside, began to weaken prior to the three-eighths pole, and steadily tired while failing to change leads.

Happy Jack, who finished last of five, dropped in from his outside post to save ground around the first turn, raced inside Wharton around the first turn, then was sent along with a little less than five furlongs to go to try and hold his position. He made up incremental ground heading to the far turn, saved ground much of the far turn, angled off the rail to the three path nearing the quarter pole to try and go around the tiring Sir London, but failed to change leads, lugged in, and flattened out.