Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby: Louisiana Derby analysis

Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby, 1 3/16 miles, Fair Grounds, March 26, 2022
(100 Derby qualifying points for first, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth)

Winner: Epicenter, by Not This Time
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC
Beyer Speed Figure: 102

These races are rich, important, graded races in their own right, and they’re also preps for the Kentucky Derby. No horse this winter has melded all that better than EPICENTER, who completed a four-race series at Fair Grounds with this victory, giving him three wins and a narrow defeat, with improving Beyer numbers every time, to set him up ideally for his biggest test six weeks hence.

The significance of this race was the way it unfolded, because it truly was used to prep Epicenter. Instead of vying for the lead, as he had in the Risen Star and Lecomte, Rosario tucked Epicenter in early, let him take some dirt, then wheeled him out, and got the response his connections desired, as he swooped past ZOZOS and PIONEER OF MEDINA and went on to an emphatic victory.

There are still several of these 170-point races to go in coming weeks, and someone may prove to be Epicenter’s equal in that time, but right now he’s the leader in the clubhouse, ticking all the boxes in terms of positional speed, Beyer figures, experience, and the physique and mind to handle what’s ahead.

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In this race, Epicenter broke cleanly but was not hustled away from the gate, as Rosario let Zozos and Pioneer of Medina take up the running while easing him back under the wire the first time to go into the first turn hugging the rail, behind Zozos. He remained there down the backstretch, and into the far turn, and with no one to block him, Rosario was able to easily angle Epicenter to the three path prior to the top of the lane. He inhaled the leaders while under a hand ride, drifted toward the rail after clearing Zozos, got one left-handed reminder a sixteenth out, and was taken in hand late, with Rosario looking back to make sure no one was threatening. It would be hard to draw up anything better.

Zozos, who finished second, used his natural speed and inside draw to take the lead without being asked. He set a solid pace while tracked by Pioneer of Medina, was sent along at the top of the lane as Pioneer of Medina tried to get on terms with him, fended off that foe, and while no match for the winner continued with tenacity to hold second while drifting out a bit while under left-handed whipping. Considering this was only his third start and his stakes debut, this was a terrific effort.

Pioneer of Medina, who was third, got loose briefly in the post parade. He left the gate well, and was urged just a bit away from the gate to take up a stalking position. He was just behind and outside Zozos around the first turn and down the backstretch, was sent along three furlongs out to try and engage Zozos, couldn’t push past Zozos in upper stretch, was no match for the bid from Epicenter, swapped to his wrong lead about 150 yards out – likely from getting tired – but still easily held third. He’s a nice, useful horse, but as he showed here and in the Risen Star, he’s just a cut below the best right now.

The top three were the three leaders the entire race.

RATTLE N ROLL, who was fourth, lacked speed per usual and was guided to the two path around the first turn. He advanced to sixth down the backstretch while within hailing distance of the leaders, didn’t really quicken when initially asked midway on the turn while remaining in the two path, plugged away between rivals and was best of a three-way photo for fourth. The race shape didn’t unfold in his favor, but he was one-paced. It’s still debatable whether he’s advanced from 2 to 3.

GALT, who was fifth, was just behind and outside the leaders in the three path early on the first turn before being angled to the two path. He stayed in that spot to the far turn, had the leaders start to get away from him midway on the turn despite being urged, and finished evenly. He was closer to the top three a half-mile out than he was at the finish.

CALL ME MIDNIGHT, who was sixth, didn’t break cleanly, had no speed, and trailed into the first turn while saving ground. He was taken to the middle of the track down the backside and made up some ground into the far turn while passing some back markers. He raced three to four paths wide much of the turn before getting fanned six wide coming off the bend, but couldn’t make any further impact and took the worst of the three-way photo for fourth. He acts like a classic middle-distance horse who needs a hot pace into which to close.

The rest were way back.

KUPUNA, who was seventh, raced between rivals while forwardly placed coming through the lane the first time, then jumped off the heels of Epicenter coming under the wire to get on his correct lead after being on his wrong lead the opening furlong. He got a bit aggressive early on the first turn and advanced to fourth while in the three path. He was in a seemingly ideal stalking position, but came under a ride three furlongs out and went in reverse, drifted out in upper stretch, and by midstretch was being sympathetically ridden.

CURLY TAIL, who was eighth, broke sharply but was outrun to the first turn and saved ground while sixth. He began to falter before reaching the far turn, had no response when asked, overmatched against these. He still has first-level allowance conditions.

SILENT POWER, who was last of nine, ducked to the inside leaving the gate, saved ground into the first turn while in front of only Call Me Midnight, tailed off to last before reaching the far turn, and was well back throughout while badly overmatched.