Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby: Breeders' Cup Juvenile analysis

Grade 1, $1,840,000 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, 1 1/16 miles, Del Mar, Nov. 5, 2021
(0 Derby qualifying points for first, 8 for second, 4 for third, 2 for fourth)

Winner: Corniche, by Quality Road
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Owner: Speedway Stables LLC
Beyer Speed Figure: 91

CORNICHE remained unbeaten and nailed down the Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male with this front-running victory over PAPPACAP, mirroring the result of the American Pharoah five weeks earlier.

The American Pharoah has proven to be a key race. In addition to those two, fourth-place finisher Rockefeller subsequently won the Nashua at Belmont Park, and sixth-place finisher Finneus emerged to take a stakes for California-breds at Del Mar.

In the Breeders’ Cup, Corniche had to go owing to his outside draw in the field of 11, and he set swift fractions, with an opening quarter in 23.03 seconds and the half in 46.15, meaning he ran his second quarter-mile in 23.12 seconds. That’s a demanding pace going two turns for a 2-year-old, and no doubt contributed to his final time of 1:42.50 being slower than that of Echo Zulu, who got away with a far easier opening half (47.01) en route to covering her 1 1/16 miles in 1:42.24 in the Juvenile Fillies 80 minutes earlier. It was true then, it’s true now: Pace does make the race.

The Beyer Speed Figure was solid, but not spectacular. Corniche got a lofty 98 sprinting in his debut, but his subsequent races going two turns have failed to equal that fig. He has a high-cruising speed, which is a serious weapon, but his two-turn figs will need to improve next spring.

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Corniche would have earned 20 points toward a Kentucky Derby berth with this victory, but, as in the American Pharoah (10 points to the winner), those points went unawarded because Churchill Downs’s rules for the 2022 Derby state that horses trained by anyone currently barred from the race can’t earn points. Baffert is the only trainer to whom that currently applies.

If nothing changes on that front, for Corniche to earn points and subsequently start in the Derby he will need to be moved to another trainer. That will be something to follow in coming months. For now, those associated with Corniche can enjoy having the most-accomplished member of his generation to date.

In this race, Corniche used his natural speed to cross over and get to the rail as the field went into the first turn. Every time pace-presser PINEHURST crept closer, Corniche spurted away. He turned back a serious bid from GIANT GAME coming off the final bend, opened a daylight lead in midstretch, and maintained a safe margin to the wire. He galloped out well in front of the field.

Pappacap, who finished second, saved ground into the first turn and had to check slightly as Corniche dropped down to the rail. He followed Corniche down the backstretch and around the far turn, had to wait slightly for room a quarter-mile out, came through inside, switched out over the heels of Corniche in midstretch to gain a clear path, and though no match for the winner pulled clear of Giant Game to easily secure second. His performances have improved with distance and experience.

Giant Game, who was third, veered in at the start but quickly recovered and secured a good position into the first turn, saving ground behind Pappacap. He was gradually angled out from that spot around the first turn and went into the backside three paths wide, then launched a rally from the four path on the far turn. He was even with Pappacap coming off the bend, but that wide rally seemed to take the starch out of him, and he weakened late. Not a bad effort for a horse who only had two prior starts and only owned a victory against maidens.

COMMANDPERFORMANCE, who was fourth, veered out slightly at the start, then was caught four paths wide chasing Corniche around the first turn. He never could get over and went into the far turn in the three path, was outrun and sucked back entering the lane, but kept to his task. He dropped back and rallied in his first two races, so I’m not sure why he was ridden so aggressively here, especially with the outside draw. A return to waiting tactics should serve him well. This was a deceptively good effort. And he’s still a maiden, so he has lots of options.

OVIATT CLASS, who dead-heated for fifth, lacked early speed and saved ground around the first turn while well behind the hotly contested pace. He was outrun going to the far turn and then had to check three furlongs out when JASPER GREAT dropped down in front of him. He was angled to the three path on the far turn and drifted to the five path coming off the bend, then passed some weary rivals.

Pinehurst, the other horse to finish in a dead-heat for fifth, let stablemate Corniche cross over in front of him heading into the first turn and wound up chasing from the three path. He was in closest attendance to Corniche down the backstretch, had to be shoved along on the far turn to try and hold his position while between rivals, then tired in the final furlong. Distance might be a question with him, but it will be interesting to see what he could do in a two-turn race where he heads to the front.

AMERICAN SANCTUARY, who finished seventh, broke slowly and went into the first turn at the rear of the field, just outside Jasper Great. He put in a mild rally while three to four paths wide on the far turn, split horses in upper stretch, but never was seriously involved at any point.

DOUBLE THUNDER, who was eighth, raced in the two path while just outside Oviatt Class around the first turn, was urged a half-mile out, followed Giant Game around the far turn, but began to run out of gas before reaching the quarter pole and went evenly thereafter.

BAROSSA, who was ninth, raced between rivals in the two path around the first turn but appeared uncomfortable in that spot, sucked out of there heading into the backside, was asked to pick it up 3 1/2 furlongs out, raced in the two path on the far turn, but never fired in a dull try.

Jasper Great, who was 10th, broke a half-step slow and trailed into the first turn while following Oviatt Class. He split Oviatt Class and Double Thunder moving toward the far turn, dropped to the rail three furlongs out and saved ground on the far turn, but never got close.

TOUGH TO TAME, who finished last of 11, raced three paths wide while midpack around the first turn while just outside Giant Game, began to retreat nearing the far turn, was asked to advance but couldn’t, and tailed off through the field.