Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby: Arkansas Derby analysis

Grade 1, $1.25 million Arkansas Derby, 1 1/8 miles, Oaklawn Park, April 2, 2022
(100 Derby qualifying points for first, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth)

Winner: Cyberknife, by Gun Runner
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Owner: Gold Square LLC
Beyer Speed Figure: 92

CYBERKNIFE, a work in progress all season for Cox, put his best foot forward to date in his final Derby prep, earning a career-best Beyer Speed Figure and enough points to guarantee a spot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs on May 7.

Cox always has held this colt in high regard, and though he’d shown flashes of brilliance, he hadn’t put it all together yet. There was still some immaturity in this race – he went to wandering about after hitting the front – but he’s clearly headed in the right direction, and it doesn’t appear as though he’s reached his ceiling yet. With another five weeks to the Derby, he’s capable of another forward move.

In this race, Cyberknife broke well and was sent along by Geroux to establish a forward position. He went into the first turn four paths wide, then was tucked in entering the backstretch to take some dirt. After a half-mile, he advanced quickly between KAVOD and CHASING TIME to battle for the lead entering the far turn. He and Kavod drew clear from their rivals early on the far turn, and by the quarter pole Cyberknife was clearly going easier, Geroux having yet to ask him whatsoever. He opened a daylight advantage in upper stretch while drifting toward the rail, came out a bit under left-handed whipping, ducked out anew with about 100 yards to go, but was always in the clear and continued strongly to the wire.

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BARBER ROAD, who finished second, lacked speed per usual and was near the rear of the pack while saving ground around the first turn. He raced between rivals while in traffic down the backstretch, was in the two path for much of the far turn, sawed off UN OJO midway on the turn, and came into the lane on the rail. He had to navigate his way between SECRET OATH and a tiring Kavod in midstretch while wanting to lug in, continued with good courage and got the place while never threatening the winner. He had a terrific series here this meet, earning points in all four point-scoring races.

Secret Oath, who was third, was jostled between rivals leaving the gate and went into the first turn toward the rear of the pack while two to three paths wide, and she was floated out to about the four path by the time she got to the backstretch. She was shuffled back to last nearing the half-mile marker, then was taken outside rivals and began a sharp rally while five paths wide on the far turn. She quickly advanced all the way to third, moved to second in upper stretch, never got closer than two lengths or so to Cyberknife, then tired in the closing yards and lost the place late. Considering her trip, it’s not unreasonable to say she was the second-best horse in the race. She will move back to face fillies next in the Kentucky Oaks.

DOPPELGANGER, who was fourth, was sent along aggressively leaving the gate to take up a stalking position three paths wide into the first turn. He continued to press the pace from that spot down the backstretch, went into the far turn in the four path and then began to drop back, then was taken wide at midstretch and made up some ground late.

Kavod, who was fifth, used his inside draw and sharp speed to fly from the gate and set a quick opening pace of 22.11 seconds for the quarter while hounded by Chasing Time. He continued to lead to the far turn, disposed of Chasing Time and Doppelganger, continued on with Cyberknife for much of the turn, couldn’t stay with Cyberknife coming off the bend, then emptied out the final 150 yards. He’ll be much better off when he’s cut back in distance, but he’s a feisty little devil.

BEN DIESEL, who was sixth, broke half a step slow and then got squeezed back between rivals in the opening yards, the result being he was last and three to four paths wide into the first turn, and he was floated out to about the five path by the time he got to the backstretch. He had no opportunity to drop in, went into the far turn in the five path, could not go with Secret Oath when she roared past him three furlongs out, then finished evenly.

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WE THE PEOPLE, who was seventh, was four to five paths wide into the first turn after starting from the outside stall, then raced in traffic while between rivals for much of the backstretch. He couldn’t hold his position three furlongs out, got shuffled back to last, made up some ground inside into the lane, but never threatened. His inexperience betrayed him.

Un Ojo, who was eighth, was able to save ground while toward the back half of the field around the first turn, and remained inside down the backstretch. He was ridden along three furlongs out while rallying in tandem with Barber Road, but got slammed into the rail twice midway on the turn and dropped back to last. Considering he doesn’t have his left eye, that had to be a startling situation, and considering that Barber Road wound up rallying for second, it’s fair to wonder if Un Ojo could have at least finished third or fourth minus the interference. He was completely eliminated.

Chasing Time, who finished last of nine, bobbled when the gates opened but quickly got moving to set up shop just behind and outside of Kavod through a brisk opening quarter. Cyberknife got up inside him moving to the far turn, so he entered that turn in the three path. He began to falter midway on the far turn, and steadily retreated through the lane.