Grade 3, $100,500 Robert Lewis Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita, Jan. 30, 2021 (10 Derby qualifying points for first, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth) Winner: Medina Spirit, by Protontico Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Abel Cedillo Owner: Zedan Racing Stables, Inc. Beyer Speed Figure: 91 MEDINA SPIRIT followed up his solid second to stablemate Life Is Good in the Sham (https://www.drf.com/news/road-2021-kentucky-derby-sham-stakes-analysis) with a gutsy effort here, holding off ROMAN CENTURIAN and HOT ROD CHARLIE over a tiring track following fractions that aided the late runners. The horses who were closest to Medina Spirit early – PARNELLI and WIPE THE SLATE – were beaten more than 19 lengths, illustrative of the race shape. Medina Spirit had every right to lose, but didn’t. The figure was fine, especially as it was earned under sub-optimal conditions for Medina Spirit. In this race, owing to his rail draw, Medina Spirit was sent away early, and though the pre-race strategy was for him to then take back and get a stalking trip – similar to how the Sham unfolded – that did not materialize. He remained inside heading into the backstretch, with Wipe the Slate applying pressure, got a bit of a breather heading into the far turn, then was asked to pick it up midway on the turn. His ears were forward, indicating he was awaiting competition, and he cornered a bit awkwardly, having changed leads prior to turning into the stretch. Both Roman Centurian and Hot Rod Charlie looked as though they’d get past him at midstretch, but Medina Spirit kept finding, prevailed, and then galloped out best, too. He’s probably better getting a stalking trip, so winning under these conditions is admirable. :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2021: Point standings, prep schedule, news, and more Roman Centurian, who finished second, lacked early speed and trailed early while in the clear. He made steady progress to be at the rear of a compact field with three furlongs to go, then continued his extended run while four paths wide on the far turn. He was right with Medina Spirit and Hot Rod Charlie in upper stretch, shifted in slightly a furlong out and bumped Hot Rod Charlie, and finished steadily but never could get past the winner. This was only his third start. He’s by a Belmont winner (Empire Maker) and his dam is by a Preakness winner (Bernardini), so he’s just getting warmed up. The race shape aided him, but he made an extended run and was facing much tougher than in his maiden win. There’s upside here. Hot Rod Charlie, who was third, bobbled when the gate opened, then settled behind the three dueling leaders, on the rail, inside Spielberg, several lengths off the pace. He was under a snug hold early, then was angled to the middle of the track down the backstretch and steadily advanced. He was three paths wide on the far turn, drifted out slightly in upper stretch, took a solid bump from Roman Centurian a furlong out, and battled it out between rivals the rest of the way, coming up on the short end of the three-way photo. He showed last year that he’s better the more he runs, and I’d expect a forward move coming out of this comeback race. The one caveat is that he, like Roman Centurian, had a race shape in his favor and couldn’t get past the winner. SPIELBERG, who was fourth, bumped with Wipe the Slate leaving the gate, then went into the first turn several lengths behind the three dueling leaders while outside Hot Rod Charlie. He started to get shoved along midway through the race to hold his position, raced in the two path on the far turn, floated out to the four path entering the lane, and then lost significant ground to the top three through the stretch. Seven starts into his career, his best Beyer is 83. The Los Alamitos Futurity winner (https://www.drf.com/news/road-2021-kentucky-derby-los-alamitos-futurity-analysis) is just not progressing. Parnelli, who was fifth, had good speed early, and raced between Medina Spirit and Wipe the Slate on the first turn before being smartly eased out of that pace duel. It was a clever bit of race-riding by Umberto Rispoli that went for naught. Parnelli saved ground into the far turn while following Medina Spirit, was urged along midway on the turn but had nothing to offer, did not change leads in upper stretch, and was not persevered with in the late going. He looked like he was making steady progress prior to this meet, but he has regressed, first in the Sham, and now here. Wipe the Slate, who finished last of six, bumped Spielberg leaving the gate, then showed good speed to go into the first turn three paths wide, outside Medina Spirit and Parnelli. He was a neck behind Medina Spirit heading into the backstretch, then eased back a touch to track from about a length away. He was urged along midway on the far turn, but could not stay with Medina Spirit, then stopped and was pretty much eased through the final furlong. This was his first try around two turns and against winners. Looks like he’s a sprinter for the moment.