Road to the 2021 Kentucky Derby: Risen Star Stakes analysis

Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes, 1 1/8 miles, Fair Grounds, Feb. 13, 2021

(50 Derby qualifying points for first, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)

Winner: Mandaloun, by Into Mischief

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Florent Geroux

Owner: Juddmonte Farms Inc.

Beyer Speed Figure: 98

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This was a rerun of the Lecomte, though with the top three reversing order, and with all three continuing to take significant steps forward on the Beyer scale. Most notably, this was the performance MANDALOUN had been promising, but failed to deliver, in the Lecomte. Additional racing and distance no doubt contributed to his improvement, but the addition of blinkers for this race surely helped, too, as he finished off the race with interest, in contrast to the Lecomte, where he was outfinished by both MIDNIGHT BOURBON and PROXY despite having dead aim on them at the top of the lane.

Mandaloun always has been highly regarded – he was even-money in his debut and has been favored in all four of his starts – and this race helped confirm what the fuss has been about for all these months. With champion Essential Quality and Caddo River as well, Cox has quite the arsenal 2 1/2 months out from Derby Day.

In this race, Mandaloun went into the first turn just behind and outside the early leaders, third while three paths wide, the same kind of ideal stalking trip his outside draws have afforded him in each start to date. He appeared eager but not uncontrollable heading down the backstretch, cooperating with the cues being given by Geroux. He continued in the three path around the far turn, took the lead from Midnight Bourbon in upper stretch, and gradually edged clear from Midnight Bourbon while holding safe Proxy. He had enough speed to win two sprints, but he runs like a horse who is steady as a metronome and will just click off furlongs in 12 seconds and change for as long as required.

Proxy, who finished second, used his inside draw to save ground in fourth around the first turn, then tucked in sweetly behind the top three. He stayed in that spot for most of the backstretch but began to lose ground to the top three nearing the far turn, closed anew nearing the quarter pole while being angled to the four path, then finished steadily. He also does not appear to be compromised by distance.

Midnight Bourbon, who was third, let RIGHTANDJUST cross over in front of him and then went into the first turn just outside of the leader, a spot he maintained down the backstretch and into the far turn. He took a brief lead a quarter-mile out but was immediately overtaken by Mandaloun, kept to his task, but could not outfinish the top two, though he galloped out with the winner.

O BESOS, who was fourth, raced in the clear in fifth around the first turn while following Mandaloun, raced mid-pack down the backstretch, then gained a bit of ground on the far turn while in the clear three paths wide. He was a little late changing leads in upper stretch, then zigged and zagged through the lane while reacting to the steady tattoo being applied by his rider. This was his first try around two turns after three sprints, none farther than 6 1/2 furlongs, so this was a big jump in distance. Not a bad effort, but not necessarily indicative of a horse who wants more ground. Also, he had won his two prior races with Lasix after a debut he lost without Lasix, and he could not use Lasix here.

SENOR BUSCADOR, who was fifth, lacks speed and trailed into the first turn while two to three paths wide. He made significant progress early on the far turn while three paths wide, swung out to the five path coming off the bend, then finished evenly through the lane and just missed getting up for fourth. Considering that the top four were 2-3-4-5 early, having to rally from last in an 11-horse field likely put him at a disadvantage. That alone offers hope. And this was only his third start. It also, though, was his first without Lasix, and against horses of this caliber. He deserves another chance, perhaps though in a race where pace and track profile will be more suitable, like the Rebel at Oaklawn next month.

Rightandjust, who finished sixth, was hustled away from his outside post and crossed over to the rail before reaching the finish line the first time, a furlong into the race. He led down the backstretch while shadowed by Midnight Bourbon, maintained a narrow lead into the far turn, was overtaken entering the lane, and steadily faded. He too was racing without Lasix for the first time.

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The rest were way back.

SANTA CRUISER, who was seventh, lacked speed as in the Lecomte and was four paths wide around the first turn, remained well back into the far turn, raced in the two path, made no progress, never in the hunt. The contending speed he displayed in his second and third starts has evaporated.

SERMONONTHEMOUNT, who was eighth, was in front of only two horses around the first turn while in the two path, dropped back to last entering the far turn, outrun and overmatched.

STARRININMYDREAMS, who was ninth, was inside owing to his rail draw heading into the first turn, but became uncontrollable, lugged out, and tossed his head about. He advanced a bit down the backstretch to be inside and just behind Proxy, showed no inclination to fight on the far turn, retreated, failed to change leads until well past midstretch, and continued to fade. Strangely awful race for a horse who was 2 for 2 – with victories sprinting and going two turns – prior to this.

CARILLO, who was 10th, saved ground around the first turn while toward the rear of the field, was asked to pick it up three furlongs out, but had no response. This was a big ask off a first-out win at Aqueduct – after which he was purchased for $875,000 in the Paul Pompa Jr. dispersal and changed barns – but he showed no interest whatsoever.

BEEP BEEP, who was last of 11, entered the first turn mid-pack while just outside Starrininmydreams, got carried out by that rival, saved ground into the far turn but had no response when called upon.