Road to the 2021 Kentucky Derby: Remsen Stakes analysis
Grade 2, $145,500 Remsen Stakes, 1 1/8 miles, Aqueduct, Dec. 5, 2020
(10 Derby qualifying points for first, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)
Winner: Brooklyn Strong, by Wicked Strong
Trainer: Daniel Velazquez
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Owner: Mark Schwartz
Beyer Speed Figure: 93
The Remsen has been the punching bag of Derby preps in recent years, owing to the lack of progress Remsen winners have made on the Derby trail the following spring, so it will be interesting to see if BROOKLYN STRONG can reverse the trend. At the moment, I’ll be circumspect.
This win was produced over a sloppy, sealed track, and though the Beyer Figure was terrific, I want to see if that number ends up being an aberration or a preview of coming attractions, as it was a significant improvement (16 points!) over Brooklyn Strong’s previous best, and represented a 15-point jump for runner-up TEN FOR TEN. They were well clear of the rest of the field, so they deserved numbers vastly superior to their rivals. But I want to see them do it again before buying in.
Brooklyn Strong began his career in a maiden claimer, and twice after that ran in New York statebred races. He’s clearly better than that. This was his first race against open company, and his first time at 1 1/8 miles, and his first time on an off track, all of which he handled. He’s now 3 for 4 lifetime.
In this race, Brooklyn Strong broke best but then was wrangled back to sit fourth around the first turn, racing in the three path while in the clear. He remained outside into the far turn, launched his bid from the three path, and took aim at Ten for Ten coming to the quarter pole. He was even with Ten for Ten a furlong out as Ten for Ten drifted towards him, then proved best in the closing yards.
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Ten for Ten, who finished second, used his natural speed and outside box to get away cleanly, then gradually angled to the rail in the opening furlong to take the lead into the first turn. He skipped along with a clear advantage down the backstretch and around the far turn, putting away all rivals save for the oncoming Brooklyn Strong. He continued to lead into the stretch, drifted out while being whipped left handed, but could not hold on while well clear of everyone else.
KNOWN AGENDA, who was third, broke last and then was ridden along to secure third, saving ground, around the first turn. He continued in that spot down the backstretch, then felt the whip for the first time more than a half-mile out but had little response. He saved ground for most of the far turn before tipping out to the three path coming off the bend, then finished evenly in the middle of the track while never coming close to threatening the top two.
PICKIN’ TIME, who was fourth, started from the rail and was maneuvered to the two path, for a stalking trip, after Ten for Ten crossed over in front of him early on the first turn. He stayed in that spot to the far turn, was shoved along three furlongs out but had little to offer, and gradually faded through the final quarter-mile.
ERAWAN, who was last of five, trailed into the first turn while just inside Brooklyn Strong, was asked to pick it up early on the far turn but failed to accelerate, dropped back further in upper stretch and was sympathetically ridden through the final furlong.