Road to the 2021 Kentucky Derby: Jerome Stakes analysis

Listed, $145,500 Jerome Stakes, one mile, Aqueduct, Jan. 1, 2021
(10 Derby qualifying points for first, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Capo Kane, by Street Sense
Trainer: Harold Wyner
Jockey: Dylan Davis
Owner: Bing Cherry Racing and Leonard Liberto
Beyer Speed Figure: 84

In recent years, since being moved to a Derby prep, the Jerome by and large has been won by horses who turned out to be very good one-turn runners, such as Firenze Fire and Mind Control, and this edition looks like more of the same at this point.

CAPO KANE shipped in from Parx Racing, where he had won once in two starts, and led from start to finish, romping to a daylight victory, but in a time that produced a soft Beyer figure. Considering he won by 6 1/4 lengths, that’s a pretty big indictment of his four rivals.

The one thing in Capo Kane’s favor is that he has taken a step forward on the Beyer scale in each start, so he’s yet to reach his ceiling. I’ll remain skeptical that he’ll end up among the top Derby contenders, but his speed is a weapon and if he’s realistically placed, like he was here, he’ll make a good living.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2021: Point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

In this race, Capo Kane left alertly from his inside draw and sped to the front, with SWILL right alongside throughout the long run down the backstretch in this one-turn mile. He was going along easily on the far turn while holding off Swill, and Davis took a peek back approaching the quarter pole, indicating he had plenty under him. Capo Kane put away Swill, then shook off EAGLE ORB in upper stretch while drifting out, and he drew away in the final furlong while continuing to drift out, something he had done in his two starts at Parx, too.

Eagle Orb, who finished second, broke alertly and then settled into a stalking position, outside both Capo Kane and Swill. He was urged along aggressively three furlongs out while racing outside the top two, got up to Capo Kane’s hip coming off the bend, but lost ground through the lane while under aggressive handling, and he swapped over to his wrong lead in the final 50 yards. He doesn’t want any part of two turns. This was his sixth start, and first outside of New York-bred company.

HOLD THE SALSA, who was third, has no early speed and trailed early, well behind his four rivals. He inched closer to be within decent range passing the midway mark, could not keep pace with the three leaders heading around the far turn, then finished up along the inside while making no impression, nosing out a tiring Swill in the last jump. Like Eagle Orb, he’ll be best sticking to one-turn races and against statebreds.

Swill, who was fourth, hopped slightly when the gate opened but was quickly on his way to sit just outside of Capo Kane. He had to be ridden along midway on the turn to try and keep up with Capo Kane, and by the top of the stretch he was done. He lost significant ground to the top two through the lane in a disappointing effort, considering the turn-back to a one-turn race looked like an appropriate move following the Kentucky Jockey Club (https://www.drf.com/news/road-2021-kentucky-derby-kentucky-jockey-club-stakes-analysis).

ORIGINAL, who finished last of five, started from the outside post, was eased back off the top three early in the race, then dived down to the rail and made a mid-race move that put him right behind Capo Kane entering the far turn. But he faded badly beginning midway on the far turn, stayed on his wrong lead in upper stretch, and was eased through the final furlong. Both his dirt races have been poor. He won his lone grass start, so that looks like his future.