Road to the 2021 Kentucky Derby: Gotham Stakes analysis

Grade 3, $301,000 Gotham Stakes, one mile, Aqueduct, March 6, 2021
(50 Derby qualifying points for first, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)
Winner: Weyburn, by Pioneerof the Nile
Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens
Jockey: Trevor McCarthy
Owner: Chiefswood Stables
Beyer Speed Figure: 95

Minor setbacks prevented WEYBURN from racing for three months, following a maiden win in December, but he came back better than ever in his 3-year-old debut, with a career-best Beyer Speed Figure while scoring a 46-1 upset.

He is not nominated – yet – to the Triple Crown, but the points earned here should be enough to make the Derby field. But Jerkens told colleague David Grening the day after the race that the Belmont is more of a long-range goal, which is understandable, being as both his grandsire (Empire Maker) and damsire (A.P. Indy) won the Belmont. Weyburn has yet to race around two turns – the Gotham is a one-turn mile – but his pedigree says stretching out will be beneficial.

In this race, Weyburn broke out slightly at the start but had good speed to press the quick FREEDOM FIGHTER down the backstretch while under a snug hold. He stayed lapped on the leader into the far turn, turned up the pressure heading around the turn, then needed to be urged approaching the quarter pole. He put away Freedom Fighter while being immediately challenged by CROWDED TRADE, looked as though he was being outrun midway through the lane while trying to lean in, but finally switched over to his correct lead 70 yards out and rallied anew to prevail narrowly. I’ve never seen him in person, but judging off the video he looks like he’s massive, so being allowed to grow into his frame can only help.

Crowded Trade, who finished second, looked as though he was purposely taken outside rivals soon after the start to get into the clear, and he ended up just behind and outside Weyburn heading down the backside. He remained three paths wide on the far turn while advancing, was alongside Weyburn heading into the lane, looked as though he was getting the better of Weyburn in midstretch, but was nailed late. He only had run once previously, defeating maidens five weeks earlier going six furlongs, so this was a terrific effort considering his inexperience, the extra distance, and level of competition. Tough beat.

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HIGHLY MOTIVATED, who was third, broke a bit slow, then had to check in traffic a furlong into the race, shuffling him back to sixth. He followed stablemate Crowded Trade on the turn, took a while to get going when first called upon, tipped to the four path coming off the bend, lost some ground in upper stretch, then was cutting anew into the margin behind the top two late while not threatening them. The jury’s still out for me on whether he’s going to improve going two turns, but obviously that will be his next target.

Freedom Fighter, who was fourth, was hustled away from the gate to make the top and led down the backstretch while stalked by Weyburn. He continued with about a half-length edge around the turn and to the quarter pole, began to weaken in upper stretch, was placed in tight by Weyburn while retreating, and tired more so in the final furlong. He probably wants a tighter track than he got here (24.29 seconds for the quarter, 48.03 for the half), but he’s not heading down the Derby trail; sprints for him.

THE REDS, who was fifth, was slowest away from the gate, then was angled to the middle of the track and raced alongside Highly Motivated down the backstretch and around most of the far turn while three to four paths wide. He was fanned to about the five path coming off the bend, but was being outrun at that point, though he did try and keep to his task, even though he was in a bit deep. A drop back to a first-level allowance will be in order.

CAPO KANE, who was sixth, eased back off the heels of Weyburn a furlong into the race and then raced between Crowded Trade and WIPE THE SLATE down the backstretch with seemingly few options. He tried to move with Crowded Trade on the far turn, but got race ridden into slight traffic, though it was inconsequential, as he was getting outrun, and he faded badly through the lane. His best options in coming months will be in lesser stakes in the mid-Atlantic, because these waters are getting too deep.

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Wipe the Slate, who was seventh, drifted in in traffic a furlong into the race, impacting Highly Motivated, then followed Freedom Fighter while inside of Crowded Trade and Capo Kane down the backside. Before five furlongs had been run, though, he was headed in reverse, and he finished well back in his second straight dreadful effort following a solid maiden win. Time to regroup.

ATLANTIC ROAD, who finished last of eight, got placed in tight not long after leaving the gate and had to check, dropped back to last, was badly outrun heading to the far turn, and was always well back.