Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Travers Stakes analysis
Grade 1, $980,000 Runhappy Travers Stakes, 1 1/4 miles, Saratoga, Aug. 8, 2020
(100 Derby qualifying points for first, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth)
Winner: Tiz the Law, by Constitution
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Jockey: Manny Franco
Owner: Sackatoga Stable
Beyer Speed Figure: 109
The beat goes on for TIZ THE LAW, who in his last two starts has made good horses look ordinary with dominating performances. He followed up his terrific Belmont Stakes score with an even better race here, earning a career-best Beyer Speed Figure, a strong one at that, while crushing the previously unbeaten UNCLE CHUCK and leaving everyone well in his wake. He is faster than this group in his races, continues to thrive in his training, puts himself in position with contending early speed, and has no problem handling the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles. The Derby goes through him.
I’ve said repeatedly that my only concern with this colt is he has appeared uncomfortable when racing inside horses. He hasn’t had to do that for a while now, and he’s obviously gained experience simply by racing, so it might not even be a factor at this stage. If it is, though, the one hope his rivals on Sept. 5 may have is that if he draws an inside post in a big field he’ll have to work out a trip. But if he gets the kind of trip he had in the Belmont and in this race, another 3-year-old is going to have to run the race of his life to beat him.
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Full credit to Barclay Tagg, assistant Robin Smullen, and the whole team with Tiz the Law for keeping him at this level for all these months. Remember, he was set for a May 2 Derby after his victory in the Florida Derby at the end of March. The pause button had to be hit, but Tiz the Law has continued to race in top form. Think now of all the 3-year-olds who have come and gone on this elongated Derby campaign – Charlatan, Maxfield, Nadal, etc., etc., etc. – which shows how hard it is to keep a horse going at this level for this long. They are being rewarded for their excellent horsemanship.
In this race, Tiz the Law left the gate alertly and took up a stalking position three paths wide around the first turn, outside Uncle Chuck and SHIVAREE. Once Shivaree began to fade nearing the half-mile pole, Tiz the Law went up to directly engage Uncle Chuck. Three furlongs out, Tiz the Law was going well within himself, while Uncle Chuck was coming under a ride. Tiz the Law poked his head in front nearing the quarter pole while still looking as though he was out for a morning breeze, kicked well clear entering the lane, swerved a bit in response to being whipped midstretch, then was allowed to coast home the final 150 yards with the result secured. Just to rub it in, he galloped out with enthusiasm, as if the race took nothing out of him.
CARACARO, who finished second, tucked in right behind the three dueling leaders heading around the first turn while in the two path. He needed to be ridden along heading down the backstretch to hold his position, then began a rally three paths wide on the far turn. Though no match for the winner, he continued resolutely the rest of the way in another good try, his second straight this summer at Saratoga. I was fearful he would bounce coming back on relatively short rest after returning in the Peter Pan following a six-month layoff, but he ran a race that might have been good enough to win many other years. He’s a good colt, deserving of the opportunity to go the Derby, but he has a lot of ground to make up in four weeks.
MAX PLAYER, who was third, was urged leaving the gate but still lacked speed and went into the first turn in front of only SOUTH BEND while saving ground. He was sent along three furlongs out and took a while to get going, but then advanced sharply while four paths wide before finishing steadily through the lane. He’s better than he was this spring, but still a cut below the best.
South Bend, who was fourth, was outrun early and trailed into the first turn while in the two path. He got closer nearing the far turn, was able to get a gorgeous, ground-saving trip around the far turn, but flattened out the final furlong.
COUNTRY GRAMMER, who was fifth, was bumped by Uncle Chuck leaving the gate and then yielded to Uncle Chuck passing the wire for the first time and went into the first turn hugging the rail, right behind Uncle Chuck. He stayed in that spot down the backstretch, wound up in an ideal position heading into the far turn behind two leaders who were beginning to duel, but had little to offer the final quarter-mile, despite ample encouragement from Irad Ortiz Jr.
Uncle Chuck, who was sixth, broke alertly and leaned in leaving the gate to bump Country Grammer, but got to the front without much duress, enabling him to get into a good rhythm with his long stride. He continued to lead down the backstretch, but had to be asked to hold his position heading into the far turn when Tiz the Law bore down on him. He was in deep water before reaching the quarter pole, as Tiz the Law was clearly going far better than him. He was outrun in upper stretch, took a long time to swap over to his correct lead – the sign of a tired animal – and retreated. He had trained brilliantly at Del Mar heading into this race, but his lack of experience, and a vastly superior rival, were hurdles too high to clear.
Shivaree, who finished last of seven, again showed his comfort zone is shorter distances. He was away alertly and was between Uncle Chuck and Tiz the Law heading around the first turn and into the backstretch, started to retreat after only six furlongs, was a distant last well before reaching the quarter pole, and was allowed to coast home.