Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Robert B. Lewis Stakes analysis

Grade 3, $100,500 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita, Feb. 1, 2020
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)
Winner: Thousand Words, by Pioneerof the Nile
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables and Spendthrift Farm
Beyer Speed Figure: 92

THOUSAND WORDS remained unbeaten with another hard-fought victory, and got a career-best figure, one point above his previous top. He doesn’t win by much, but he continues to win, and now owns 20 points, 10 from this race, 10 from the Los Alamitos Futurity in December. He’s a grinder who doesn’t wilt from a challenge, and he’s proven he’s tough to get past. He’s in the mix as one of the better Derby prospects this spring, but likely will need to progress in coming months.

In this race, Thousand Words bobbled slightly leaving the gate, then got shuffled back into the first turn to be fifth of six in a compact field while saving ground. He followed his pacesetting stablemate, HIGH VELOCITY, down the backstretch and around the far turn while remaining inside, showed good courage to squeeze between High Velocity and TIZAMAGICIAN in upper stretch, got the best of High Velocity in deep stretch and held safe ROYAL ACT. On the gallop-out, he never let Royal Act go past him. He definitely wants to dominate the herd.

Royal Act, who finished second, was making his dirt debut after two starts on turf. He took a few strides to get into gear but then advanced between rivals on the first turn to stalk the pace from the three path. He stayed in that spot to the far turn while keeping Thousand Words locked inside, had to be ridden along midway on the turn to keep up, tipped about four to five wide coming off the bend, kept to his task the rest of the way but never could get past Thousand Words. It was an encouraging first try on dirt.

High Velocity, who was third, used his natural speed to hit the top early, with Joel Rosario sitting as quietly as possible atop him. He crossed over to the inside around the first turn, had Tizamagician lapped on him into and then down the backstretch, fended off an aggressive challenge from Tizamagician on the far turn with Rosario refusing to panic, led with a furlong to go but wasn’t good enough late. I thought he was given every possible chance to succeed here, with a sit-still ride and a moderate pace. He ran well, simply third-best. The challenges won’t get easier for him in terms of pace and competition. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him head to Oaklawn for Baffert next time to try his luck there.

Tizamagician, who was fourth, broke best but was outrun by High Velocity to the first turn, checked slightly off High Velocity’s heels, then was angled out to stalk High Velocity from the two path. He stayed alongside High Velocity to the far turn, was asked at that point to challenge more in earnest, couldn’t get past High Velocity and then came under the whip a quarter-mile out. He had Thousand Words split him and High Velocity in upper stretch, then was outrun through the final furlong, though he was beaten less than two lengths for it all. He got a career-best fig, so he’s continuing to improve, but he still hasn’t cracked a 90 Beyer in seven starts. He might not come around quickly enough to be a Derby contender, but he’s still headed in the right direction.

ENCODER, who was fifth, never had raced on dirt before, and it showed. He bobbled slightly leaving the gate, then appeared uncomfortable racing inside in the opening furlong owing to the kickback. He trailed entering the backstretch and at that point seemed more comfortable taking the spray of dirt, but couldn’t close ground on the far turn and then was ridden sympathetically through the final furlong when it was obvious he was not going to be anywhere close to the top four. Back to the turf for this son of English Channel.

ZIMBA WARRIOR, who finished last of six, swapped leads a couple times in the opening furlong and then got floated to the four path around the first turn outside Royal Act. He was shoved along aggressively three furlongs out but it was for naught, as he continued to drop back, and he too was understandably not persevered with through the final furlong when he had no chance of getting out of last.