Road to the Derby: Los Alamitos Futurity analysis

Grade 2, $200,000 Los Alamitos Futurity, 1 1/16 miles, Los Alamitos, Dec. 7, 2019

(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Thousand Words, by Pioneerof the Nile

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables and Spendthrift Farm

Beyer Speed Figure: 91

For the sixth straight time, and 12th overall, Baffert won this race, this time with a lightly raced colt whose career to this point has an easy and obvious parallel.

THOUSAND WORDS won his debut sprinting at Santa Anita on Oct. 26 going 6 1/2 furlongs, then came back six weeks later and, in his second start, stretched out to 1 1/16 miles and won this important, year-end race for 2-year-olds.

Sound familiar? Just two years ago, McKinzie won this debut at Santa Anita on Oct. 28 going seven furlongs, then came back six weeks later for his second start and was placed first in the Los Alamitos Futurity on the disqualification of stablemate Solomini.

McKinzie got a Beyer figure of 92 in the Los Alamitos Futurity, one point better than Thousand Words. If Thousand Words is on the same career path as McKinzie, he’ll be just fine.

Thousand Words was tested in this race by ANNEAU D’OR, who was coming off a narrow loss in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. But he fought on bravely to prevail, never betraying his lack of experience.

In this race, Thousand Words jumped slightly to his left at the start, then went into the first turn in an ideal spot, stalking stablemate HIGH VELOCITY from the two path. He moved closer down the backstretch to be on even terms heading into the far turn, appeared to be getting the best of High Velocity midway on the far turn, but had not put away his stablemate by the furlong pole when Anneau d’Or ranged up looking as though he’d go by both. Tackled from both sides, Thousand Words finally put away High Velocity, fended off Anneau d’Or, and seemed to be gradually edging away at the finish. He showed he could handle an off track, which often comes in handy on the Derby trail. He added blinkers for this race, and showed good tactical speed that will serve him well down the line.

Anneau d’Or, who was second, used his rail draw to save ground early, tucking in behind High Velocity while inside of Thousand Words. He was angled off the rail and moved to challenge from the three path on the far turn, drifted out in upper stretch and was a bit late to change leads, looked as though he was going best of all passing the sixteenth pole, but was outfinished in the closing yards. Good effort, ideal trip, simply second-best.

High Velocity, who finished third, removed blinkers for this race after wearing them for his first two starts, both sprint wins. He again was keen early and took the lead while setting a quick pace. He rolled along the whole way, showed quite a bit of tenacity to fight back in upper stretch when Thousand Words looked as though he was going the best of the two, but finally yielded in the final 150 yards. He’s bred to be fine going two turns, so perhaps he deserves another chance, but he was third best this day, and even without the blinkers he was still too eager in the early going for his own good.

WRECKING CREW, who was last of this four-horse field, was the most-experienced horse in the field. He had four prior starts, and was coming off a third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. But he regressed badly here. He broke a half-step slow, checked in the opening strides, then energetically went up three paths wide into the first turn to be just outside of Thousand Words. He stayed in that spot for much of the backstretch, but came under a ride more than three furlongs out and could not keep Anneau d’Or – who was inside him – trapped. He continued to lose ground the rest of the far turn, was slow to change leads in upper stretch while being badly outrun, and then was sympathetically eased. Something went awry.