Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Risen Star (second division) analysis

Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (second division), 1 1/8 miles, Fair Grounds, Feb. 15, 2020
(50 Derby qualifying points for a win, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)
Winner: Modernist, by Uncle Mo
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Owner: Pam and Marty Wygod
Beyer Speed Figure: 84

This division of the Risen Star was run 36 minutes after Mr. Monomoy’s victory in division one, and thus invites comparison. The half-mile splits (48.57 seconds) were identical, yet the final time of this race was .85 seconds slower, resulting in a Beyer figure eight points below the first division.

MODERNIST, the winner, was making his stakes debut after defeating maidens at Aqueduct in his third start. He did earn a career-best fig in here, but that number is well below what will be needed going forward to compete with the best of this class. That said, Mott has shown for decades now that he knows how to bring a horse along to a main goal, so improvement should be expected. But Modernist will have to take a significant leap forward in coming months to be effective against the horses who were in the first division of the Risen Star, let alone others in Arkansas, California, and Florida.

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In this race, Modernist had enough speed from his inside draw to vie for the early lead, with NY TRAFFIC just to his outside and slightly in front. Modernist was under a snug hold while just inside and slightly behind Ny Traffic down the backstretch, volleyed for the lead around the far turn and into the lane, asserted his superiority midway through the lane and held sway. Even though they came home much slower than the first division, no one made up any appreciable ground late, and the first three were all prominent throughout.

MAJOR FED, who finished second, was toward the front half of the field while in the two path around the first turn. He was right behind the leaders heading into the far turn, was outrun for a bit three furlongs out, saved some ground around the far turn, was tipped out in upper stretch, and kept chugging away to just gain the place.

The first two finishers were eligible to a first-level allowance, and the fig confirms that’s what this race was, essentially. Plus, the first seven finishers were all within four lengths of one another, which is usually the sign of a soft fig. For now, this field appears below stakes par.

Ny Traffic, who was third, showed good speed from his wide draw and got over to the two path into the first turn, outside only Modernist. He maintained a narrow lead down the backstretch, was right with the winner coming into the lane, began to weaken a touch in upper stretch, but wasn’t beaten all that much for it all, which says something about those who finished behind him.

MAILMAN MONEY, who was fourth, was shuffled back between rivals in the early going, then wound up four paths wide early on the first turn before being cleverly guided to the rail by Gabriel Saez. He made up some ground down the backstretch while following Modernist, got out midway on the far turn to loom a threat alongside Modernist and Major Fed, but weakened late while swapping over to his wrong lead, indicating he was out of gas.

MR. BIG NEWS, who was fifth, saved ground toward the back half of the field around the first turn after checking slightly, perhaps uncomfortable inside. He lost a bit of ground down the backstretch, then was asked for his best three furlongs out. He followed the winner into the lane, but could make no impact the final furlong.

LYNN’S MAP, who was sixth, was rated leaving the gate and guided to the rail while trailing around the first turn. He continued to save ground the rest of the way, was in about the two path entering the lane, was late to change leads, and made up some ground late while splitting rivals, though never a threat. This looked like an experiment – to grab him early – as he had been close to the pace in prior starts. Regardless, he remains stuck in the low-80s/high-70s five starts into his career.

FINNICK THE FIERCE, who finished seventh, bobbled leaving the gate, then wound up three to four paths wide while toward the back half of the field around the first turn. He made some progress down the backstretch, raced alongside Mr. Big News on the far turn, but just went up and down through the lane.

EXCESSION, who was eighth, broke through the gate before the start and was reloaded. He broke fine, but had no early speed and was in front of just one horse while saving ground around the first turn. He was well back throughout, hugged the rail around the final turn, was gradually angled to the middle of the track while coming through the lane but couldn’t muster a significant rally.

ANNEAU D’OR, who was ninth, was even-money against this soft bunch and was dreadful. He checked slightly heading into the first turn, but was forwardly placed while in the three to four path. He stayed in the middle of the track down the backstretch while within a few lengths of the leaders, made a mild bid on the turn while three to four paths wide, was fanned wider into the lane while retreating, and had zero to offer through the stretch.

LIAM’S LUCKY CHARM, who was 10th, broke through the gate before the start and was reloaded. He led through the opening furlong before conceding the top two spots to Modernist and and Ny Traffic and tipping outside to the three path. He was just behind and outside the two leaders with a half-mile to go, but began to tire before reaching the top of the stretch, was pushed aside by Mailman Money, and retreated while failing to change leads.

FAME TO FAMOUS, who finished last of 11, checked between rivals coming past the finish the first time, raced midpack while between rivals around the first turn, started to drop back before reaching the half-mile pole, continued to fade away, and was well behind his rivals before reaching the top of the stretch.