Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Pegasus Stakes Analysis

Listed, $155,000 Pegasus Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Monmouth Park, Aug. 15, 2020
(20 Derby qualifying points for first, 8 for second, 4 for third, 2 for fourth)

Winner: Pneumatic, by Uncle Mo
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC
Beyer Speed Figure: 99

Eleven months after the first points-scoring race for the 2020 Derby was run, the final leg of an elongated 44-race series was completed with this race, which is unlikely to have much impact on the Derby. The victorious PNEUMATIC, fourth in the Belmont in his prior start, has raced just five times and is not quite at the level of Tiz the Law at the moment, so his connections are taking the long view and pointing to the Preakness on Oct. 3. Anyone else who exits this race and goes to the Derby would be a decided, and deserved, longshot.

Pneumatic is a progressive type who got a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 99 here. His only try at nine furlongs was in the Belmont, which was run around one turn, so it’s still uncertain how he’ll do with more distance going two turns. But he was much the best over a fairly soft field here and certainly bears watching through the end of this year and into 2021 for a top outfit.

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In this race, Pneumatic was shuffled back coming under the wire the first time but then was able to take up a stalking position outside ARKAAN around the first turn while three to four paths wide. He appeared keen early, but settled into a nice rhythm heading down the backside while in the clear, then advanced early on the far turn to put pressure on Arkaan. He took over prior to the quarter pole, appeared to want to drift out slightly in upper stretch, and was ridden out through the lane while having the whip shown to him but never used.

JESUS’ TEAM, who finished second, trailed heading into the first turn while in the three path, then curiously was sent between rivals and got all the way up to fourth, racing just inside Pneumatic, heading into the backside. He was ridden along beginning three furlongs out to try and go after Pneumatic and Arkaan, could make no impact on Pneumatic passing the quarter pole, was slightly late to change leads, and gamely kept to his task. He made up some ground late, but never was getting to the winner. For a horse who was risked for $25,000 in May, he’s made quite a bit of progress the past three months since changing barns.

Arkaan, who was third, used his natural speed to take the early lead while being kept off the rail. He set a moderate pace, was asked to pick it up when Pneumatic turned up the heat three furlongs out, couldn’t stay with Pneumatic coming to the quarter pole, and gradually weakened the final furlong. Considering this was only his third start, his first around two turns, and his stakes debut, he didn’t run badly at all, but I doubt he’ll be very effective at distances beyond this trip. He probably will be best suited to races from seven furlongs to a mile.

The rest were well back.

SUPER JOHN, who was fourth, broke half a step slowly, then went into the first turn toward the rear of a bunched field while in traffic and between rivals. He checked off heels just before turning into the backside, was shoved along three furlongs out but had little response, and plugged away to get a minor share. He was 13 lengths behind the winner, and 8 1/2 in front of WARTIME HERO, underscoring how little depth was in this field.

Wartime Hero, who was fifth, was forwardly placed around the first turn, just behind and inside of Arkaan, stayed in that spot to near the far turn, but readily retreated beginning three furlongs out.

BIG CITY BOB, who was sixth, bobbled slightly leaving the gate, then saved ground around the first turn while having to ease back a bit when Wartime Hero made it tight. He gradually lost some ground down the backstretch, had nothing to offer when asked aggressively beginning three furlongs out, drifted to the four path heading into the lane, but never was involved.

SKYSCANNER, who was seventh, saved ground while trailing around the first turn, fell farther back heading down the backside, and passed only one tired rival while completely outrun throughout.

AS SEEN ON TV, who finished last of eight, raced four to five paths wide around the first turn, was alongside Super John heading into the far turn, had no response, then stopped badly the final five sixteenths. This was the second straight time he stopped badly. He did the same thing in the Florida Derby, but at least he was somewhat prominent early there against a horse like Tiz the Law. This race, his first since then, was worse.