Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Ohio Derby analysis

Grade 3, $500,000 Ohio Derby; 1 1/8 miles; Thistledown; June 27, 2020

(20 Derby qualifying points for a win, 8 for second, 4 for third, 2 for fourth)

Winner: Dean Martini, by Cairo Prince

Trainer: Tom Amoss

Jockey: Ricardo Mejias

Owners: Raise the BAR Racing LLC

Beyer Speed Figure: 95

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2020: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

If you claim a horse for $50,000 and two starts later win a race with a first prize of $300,000, that’s amore! Cheers to DEAN MARTINI, who pulled off a 14-1 upset in his stakes debut while earning a career-best Beyer Figure in a race that came up much faster than one might have expected considering the overall quality of this field.

Dean Martini is not nominated to the Triple Crown, but there’s still a chance for him to get into the Derby should his connections desire. Horses can be supplemented at entry time, though as of the running of this race that fee had not been announced. However, it is expected to be far cheaper than the usual $200,000 for the Derby, because in previous years that supplemental fee made a horse eligible for all three Triple Crown races. This year, the Belmont already has been run.

Dean Martini lost his first seven starts, going long and short, on turf and dirt, in Kentucky, California, Louisiana, and Arkansas, before he was claimed in his first try against maiden claimers, a race he won. He subsequently finished second in an allowance race at Churchill Downs on June 12 before this victory 15 days later. He has finished in the money eight times in nine starts. This race featured horses a cut below the division’s best, but he’s on the improve and his connections already are well in the black on their recent acquisition.

In this race, Dean Martini used his contending speed and inside draw to secure a ground-saving position around the first turn, just behind the leaders. He stayed in that spot early on the backstretch, then was hustled along down the backstretch to advance to the lead while hugging the rail. He put away LEBDA passing the quarter pole, drifted slightly off the rail entering the lane while opening a commanding lead, then lasted over the onrushing SOUTH BEND. He didn’t want any more than 1 1/8 miles, but his finishing kick probably was compromised by his big mid-race move. He’s a useful, consistent sort who can make a whole lot of money if sensibly spotted.

South Bend, who finished second, lacked early speed and was toward the rear of the pack in the two path around the first turn. He was asked for his all heading around the far turn and steadily advanced in the four path. He made up plenty of ground late, though the leader was getting tired (final three furlongs in 39.72 seconds). He had to be pushed along for much of the race, indicative of a grinding type who won’t be hindered by extra distance.

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STORM THE COURT, who was third, couldn’t get over from his outside draw and went into the first turn five paths wide while just off the early pace. He ranged up wide early on the backside to prompt the pace, was three paths wide on the far turn while losing ground to the eventual winner, had to shift out to avoid the heels of the tiring Lebda in upper stretch, but was outrun for the place by South Bend while finishing evenly. The wide trip didn’t help, but the fact is last year’s male 2-year-old champ just hasn’t progressed from 2 to 3. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile looked like a negative key race at the time, and nothing has happened since to change that opinion. Considering this colt is by Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Court Vision, and there’s a good grass stakes program for 3-year-olds at Del Mar, perhaps that’s an option over the next couple of months.

ROWDY YATES, who was fourth, vied for the lead into the first turn in the two path before taking a narrow advantage over Lebda entering the backstretch. He had Dean Martini rush up inside him moving down the backstretch and then checked briefly while between runners a half-mile out. He saved ground around the far turn while unable to make up any ground at that point on Dean Martini or Lebda, and just did hold on for fourth. He probably wants a slightly shorter trip.

SPRAWL, who was fifth, broke out slightly at the start, then went into the first turn mid-pack, hugging the rail, following Dean Martini. He raced in some traffic down the backstretch and had to wait behind Rowdy Yates approaching the half-mile pole, raced in the two path for much of the far turn, and had little to offer through the lane.

Lebda, who finished sixth, was hustled along leaving the gate and led into the first turn while in the three path, then settled into second outside Rowdy Yates turning into the backstretch. He took the lead moving down the backstretch, then was challenged when Dean Martini rushed up inside him nearing the far turn. He raced outside Dean Martini around the far turn, began to weaken nearing the quarter pole, and steadily faded.

ROGUE ELEMENT, who was seventh, broke out and bumped Rowdy Yates leaving the gate, was outrun into and around the first turn while winding up near the rear of the field while saving ground, dropped back to last while losing contact with the field early on the backstretch, then passed some stragglers late.

UNRIGHTEOUS, who was eighth, failed to drop in from his outside stall in the run to the first turn and wound up mid-pack while four paths wide around that turn. He followed Storm the Court into the far turn, was asked aggressively midway on the turn but had nothing to offer as South Bend rushed past him on the outside, and dropped back.

INFORMATIVE, who was ninth, broke a couple lengths behind his rivals and went into the first turn in 12th while in the two path. He made steady progress to be at the back of a tight group heading to the far turn, remained three to four paths wide on the far turn and never got involved.

BEAR ALLEY, who was 10th, was bumped by CODE RUNNER leaving the gate, moved up to be just behind the leaders entering the first turn while about three paths wide, and got shuffled back. He was just inside Informative heading to the far turn, but began to weaken three furlongs out while between rivals.

Code Runner, who was 11th, veered in slightly at the start, lacked speed, and was guided to the rail into the first turn. He was well back entering the backstretch, made some progress down the backstretch to get closer, but was done by the time he got to the far turn.

ESTABLISHED, who was 12th, went into the first turn about four to five paths wide while outside Lebda, continued to stalk the pace while just inside Storm the Court down the backstretch, came off the bit three furlongs out and steadily retreated.

DACK JANIEL'S, who was last of 13, raced between rivals in the two path while just behind the leaders around the first turn, was even with the winner five furlongs out, ran into a bit of traffic soon thereafter but not enough to excuse his subsequent lack of effort.