Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Gotham analysis

Grade 3, $300,000 Gotham Stakes, one mile, Aqueduct, March 7, 2020

(50 Derby qualifying points for a win, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)

Winner: Mischevious Alex, by Into Mischief

Trainer: John Servis

Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche

Owners: Cash Is King LLC and LC Racing

Beyer Speed Figure: 90

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2020: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

MISCHEVIOUS ALEX earned enough points in this race to pretty much guarantee a spot in the field for the May 2 Derby. Whether he belongs there will be known in coming weeks, for, to this point, he’s been far better around one turn than two.

Make no mistake, he is a very good horse. This was his third straight win, all in stakes. All, though, have been earned around one turn, with a career-best Beyer Figure of 93. He’s bred at best to be a miler (he’s out of a Speightstown mare), so going out to the 1 1/8 miles of the Wood Memorial on April 4, let alone the 1 1/4 miles of the Derby, seems challenging. But first things first. Let’s see how he does in the Wood. As far as the Derby, I’m skeptical he can be a factor, but I will look forward to him being eventually pointed to races like the Grade 1, seven-furlong Allen Jerkens during the summer at Saratoga. That seems like his wheelhouse.

On the whole, the runners in this field appear as though their future is more around one turn than two. And this appeared to be the weakest of the three Derby preps run on March 7; the others were the San Felipe and Tampa Bay Derby.

In this race, Mischevious Alex broke fastest of all but then Carmouche allowed a few runners to come up inside him during the opening furlong as Mischevious Alex took up a stalking position. Midway through the race, he was battling for the lead while between rivals, and on the far turn he began to assert his superiority over his rivals without being asked. He was sent along in earnest at the top of the lane and maintained a safe margin over UNTITLED all the way to the wire while looking as though he didn’t want to go much farther, as he was passed by several rivals early on the gallop out.

Untitled, who finished second, has had an aggressive campaign, as this was his third start at three different tracks in five weeks. He broke well and then steadily advanced during the opening half to race alongside Mischevious Alex heading into the far turn, then raced in the three path around the turn. He was urged along prior to the quarter pole to try and keep pace with Mischevious Alex, and though he couldn’t stay with the winner he kept to his task to hold the place.

ATTACHMENT RATE, who was third, raced mid-pack early and then moved between rivals to be in traffic while just behind the leaders heading into the far turn. He followed Mischevious Alex around the turn, dropped to the rail in upper stretch, and finished steadily while failing to change leads all the way to the wire.

MONTAUK TRAFFIC, who was fourth, was bumped at the start and dropped back to last, then was taken to the rail and advanced during the run down the backstretch. With a wall of horses in front of him, he was tipped to the three path entering the far turn, got fanned five wide entering the lane, was late to change leads, and finished evenly.

NECKER ISLAND, who was fifth, bobbled slightly leaving the gate, then raced just outside Attachment Rate down the backstretch while racing in some traffic. He went into the far turn in the four path, was under a drive before reaching the quarter pole, drifted out a bit through the lane but couldn’t make any impact the final quarter-mile.

FLAP JACK, who finished sixth, broke in at the start to compromise Montauk Traffic, then raced just behind the leaders while outside of a tightly bunched field heading into the far turn. He ranged up four paths wide to be just outside Untitled around the far turn, but began to weaken passing the furlong pole, drifted in a couple of times in the final furlong and had to be corrected, and tired. This was his first start since September, so he likely can improve off of it, but he’s a cut below right now.

INFORMATIVE, who was seventh, raced between rivals while vying for the lead in the opening quarter before easing back to sit just behind the leaders heading into the far turn. He was outrun to a spot nearing the three-furlong mark and had to check, saved ground for much of the turn while only having to come around the tiring WAR STOPPER, but couldn’t make up much ground through the lane.

FIRST DEPUTY, who was eighth, never could get over from his wide draw owing to the tightly bunched field and wound up about five paths wide around the far turn, outside Flap Jack. He started to weaken before the quarter pole, was yet another in here who failed to change leads, and steadily faded.

SIXTO, who was ninth, checked between rivals in the early going, appeared to resent the kickback, and dropped back to last. Though well back and racing in the clear, he was kept in the three to four path on the far turn and only passed two exhausted rivals.

War Stopper, who was 10th, was hustled along between horses to lead a quarter-mile into the race, was shoved along beginning three furlongs out to try and go with Mischevious Alex, but was spent well before the quarter pole and was allowed to coast home the rest of the way under his own power.

CELTIC STRIKER, who finished last of 11, broke inward leaving the gate but had enough speed to advance and be just inside and behind War Stopper a quarter-mile into the race. He started to lose position heading into the far turn and dropped back quickly to last before the three-furlong pole.